Value
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.4 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.4 |
| PEG | 6.9 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.2x
- ▸PEG: 1.04
NSIT · Why this verdict
Why Insight Enterprises (NSIT) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Insight Enterprises trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 9.2x and a PEG ratio of 1.01, placing it in the attractively valued category relative to expected earnings growth in the technology distribution space. Valuation breakdown | Forward price-to-earnings ratio remains below 12x and earnings growth sustains a PEG ratio below 1.5 over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterLow multiples in technology distribution often reflect structural margin compression risk from vendor program changes and competition from direct manufacturer sales channels. | ||
With 81% of revenue concentrated in North America, Insight has limited geographic diversification, making it highly sensitive to US technology spending cycles and limiting growth optionality from international markets. Bear case | Non-North America revenue grows to represent more than 25% of total revenue within 24 months as international expansion accelerates. | →Stable |
| CounterNorth American technology spending is among the most resilient globally; concentration in the largest market can be a competitive advantage rather than a risk when that market grows. | ||
Insight's quality score of 3.5 falls below the minimum floor of 4.0, driven by gross margins that score only 0.4 and operating margins that score 2.1, reflecting the razor-thin margin structure of technology distribution. Warnings | Quality score rises above 4.0 within 12 months as managed services and higher-margin cloud revenue streams grow as a share of total revenue. | →Stable |
| CounterFree cash flow quality scores 6.6, indicating actual cash generation is better than reported margins suggest; the business may be investing heavily in transition to higher-margin services. | ||
Insight Enterprises has triggered a death cross hard block — the fastest-moving price average has crossed below the slower one — alongside a falling on-balance volume reading, confirming institutional distribution of shares. Engine gate (failed) | Price recovers above the 200-day moving average and the on-balance volume trend turns positive within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterDespite the death cross, the stock remains above its 200-day moving average on one metric, and the stock trades near a 52-week mid-range position suggesting support at current levels. | ||
Insight Enterprises trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 9.2x and a PEG ratio of 1.01, placing it in the attractively valued category relative to expected earnings growth in the technology distribution space.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward price-to-earnings ratio remains below 12x and earnings growth sustains a PEG ratio below 1.5 over the next 12 months.
CounterLow multiples in technology distribution often reflect structural margin compression risk from vendor program changes and competition from direct manufacturer sales channels.
With 81% of revenue concentrated in North America, Insight has limited geographic diversification, making it highly sensitive to US technology spending cycles and limiting growth optionality from international markets.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Non-North America revenue grows to represent more than 25% of total revenue within 24 months as international expansion accelerates.
CounterNorth American technology spending is among the most resilient globally; concentration in the largest market can be a competitive advantage rather than a risk when that market grows.
Insight's quality score of 3.5 falls below the minimum floor of 4.0, driven by gross margins that score only 0.4 and operating margins that score 2.1, reflecting the razor-thin margin structure of technology distribution.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- Quality score rises above 4.0 within 12 months as managed services and higher-margin cloud revenue streams grow as a share of total revenue.
CounterFree cash flow quality scores 6.6, indicating actual cash generation is better than reported margins suggest; the business may be investing heavily in transition to higher-margin services.
Insight Enterprises has triggered a death cross hard block — the fastest-moving price average has crossed below the slower one — alongside a falling on-balance volume reading, confirming institutional distribution of shares.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- Price recovers above the 200-day moving average and the on-balance volume trend turns positive within 12 months.
CounterDespite the death cross, the stock remains above its 200-day moving average on one metric, and the stock trades near a 52-week mid-range position suggesting support at current levels.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Insight Enterprises offers an attractive forward price-to-earnings ratio of 9.2x with a PEG of 1.01, but failed three technical gates including a death cross hard block, with quality below the minimum threshold, negative price momentum, and 81% revenue concentration in North America limiting diversification.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.8 |
| ROA | 2.2 |
| Gross margin | 0.4 |
| Op margin | 2.1 |
| Net margin | 1.1 |
| Current ratio | 4.6 |
| FCF quality | 6.6 |
| Moat | 3.8 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
2.8/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.8 |
Momentum
2.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 5.0 |
| Volume | 2.3 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 3.5 |
| erm sentiment | 6.9 |
- ▸Below analyst target
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Negligible insider buying — $139,777 (0.004% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
2.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.6 |
| quality rank | 4.3 |
| growth rank | 0.0 |
Technical
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.4 |
| support resistance | 6.0 |
| 52w position | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.0 |
| days to cover | 7.9 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 2.2 |
| beta | 6.7 |
| debt equity | 4.8 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.58
- ▸High IV: 67%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.5 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.9 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:25d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.8<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-2.4=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-2.40
Upside
-23.9%
Downside
10.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $3.4B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Value at 7.0 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:2.8<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.0, Technical at 5.5, and Sentiment at 5.0; the weakest are Peer rank at 2.0, Momentum at 2.8, and Growth at 2.8. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -2.40 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Forward Valuation
Trip ifForward price-to-earnings ratio rises above 14x without a corresponding increase in earnings growth estimates.
- P2Quality Below Floor Thin Margins
Trip ifQuality score remains below 3.5 for more than 3 consecutive quarters with operating margins declining below 1%.
- P3Death Cross Momentum Breakdown
Trip ifOn-balance volume falls below 50% of its current level or price drops below $95.
- P4North America Geographic Concentration
Trip ifNorth America revenue concentration rises above 90% or total revenue growth falls below 1% year-over-year.