Value
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.6 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.1 |
| PEG | 6.4 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 11.6x
- ▸PEG: 1.15
NSIT · Why this verdict
Why Insight Enterprises (NSIT) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Insight Enterprises offers an attractive forward price-to-earnings ratio of 9.2x with a PEG of 1.01, but failed three technical gates including a death cross hard block, with quality below the minimum threshold, negative price momentum, and 81% revenue concentration in North America limiting diversification.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Insight Enterprises trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 9.2x and a PEG ratio of 1.01, placing it in the attractively valued category relative to expected earnings growth in the technology distribution space. Valuation breakdown | Forward price-to-earnings ratio remains below 12x and earnings growth sustains a PEG ratio below 1.5 over the next 12 months. | Tripped↑Improving |
| CounterLow multiples in technology distribution often reflect structural margin compression risk from vendor program changes and competition from direct manufacturer sales channels. | ||
With 81% of revenue concentrated in North America, Insight has limited geographic diversification, making it highly sensitive to US technology spending cycles and limiting growth optionality from international markets. Bear case | Non-North America revenue grows to represent more than 25% of total revenue within 24 months as international expansion accelerates. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterNorth American technology spending is among the most resilient globally; concentration in the largest market can be a competitive advantage rather than a risk when that market grows. | ||
Insight's quality score of 3.5 falls below the minimum floor of 4.0, driven by gross margins that score only 0.4 and operating margins that score 2.1, reflecting the razor-thin margin structure of technology distribution. Warnings | Quality score rises above 4.0 within 12 months as managed services and higher-margin cloud revenue streams grow as a share of total revenue. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterFree cash flow quality scores 6.6, indicating actual cash generation is better than reported margins suggest; the business may be investing heavily in transition to higher-margin services. | ||
Insight Enterprises has triggered a death cross hard block — the fastest-moving price average has crossed below the slower one — alongside a falling on-balance volume reading, confirming institutional distribution of shares. Engine gate (failed) | Price recovers above the 200-day moving average and the on-balance volume trend turns positive within 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterDespite the death cross, the stock remains above its 200-day moving average on one metric, and the stock trades near a 52-week mid-range position suggesting support at current levels. | ||
Insight Enterprises trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 9.2x and a PEG ratio of 1.01, placing it in the attractively valued category relative to expected earnings growth in the technology distribution space.
Tripped↑ImprovingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward price-to-earnings ratio remains below 12x and earnings growth sustains a PEG ratio below 1.5 over the next 12 months.
CounterLow multiples in technology distribution often reflect structural margin compression risk from vendor program changes and competition from direct manufacturer sales channels.
With 81% of revenue concentrated in North America, Insight has limited geographic diversification, making it highly sensitive to US technology spending cycles and limiting growth optionality from international markets.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Non-North America revenue grows to represent more than 25% of total revenue within 24 months as international expansion accelerates.
CounterNorth American technology spending is among the most resilient globally; concentration in the largest market can be a competitive advantage rather than a risk when that market grows.
Insight's quality score of 3.5 falls below the minimum floor of 4.0, driven by gross margins that score only 0.4 and operating margins that score 2.1, reflecting the razor-thin margin structure of technology distribution.
↓DeterioratingWarnings
- Expectation
- Quality score rises above 4.0 within 12 months as managed services and higher-margin cloud revenue streams grow as a share of total revenue.
CounterFree cash flow quality scores 6.6, indicating actual cash generation is better than reported margins suggest; the business may be investing heavily in transition to higher-margin services.
Insight Enterprises has triggered a death cross hard block — the fastest-moving price average has crossed below the slower one — alongside a falling on-balance volume reading, confirming institutional distribution of shares.
↑ImprovingEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- Price recovers above the 200-day moving average and the on-balance volume trend turns positive within 12 months.
CounterDespite the death cross, the stock remains above its 200-day moving average on one metric, and the stock trades near a 52-week mid-range position suggesting support at current levels.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.4 |
| ROA | 2.1 |
| Gross margin | 0.4 |
| Op margin | 2.5 |
| Net margin | 1.2 |
| Current ratio | 4.5 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 208% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
8.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.2 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.7 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 6.5 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.1 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 86)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.3 |
| Price target | 5.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (4.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.7 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $60,037 (0.001% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.1 |
| quality rank | 5.7 |
| growth rank | 4.3 |
Technical
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.8 |
| support resistance | 0.7 |
| 52w position | 9.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.9 |
| days to cover | 6.9 |
| volatility | 1.2 |
| put call | 8.4 |
| implied vol | 2.1 |
| max pain risk | 5.0 |
| beta | 6.7 |
| debt equity | 4.8 |
- ▸High IV: 67%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.9>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:73d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.7=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.65
Upside
-9.8%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $4.5B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.2 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 8.1) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.7=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.65 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.1, Value at 6.8, and Catalyst at 6.4; the weakest are Peer rank at 3.3, Technical at 4.0, and Quality at 4.1. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.65 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Forward ValuationTripped
Trip ifForward price-to-earnings ratio rises above 14x without a corresponding increase in earnings growth estimates.
- P2Quality Below Floor Thin Margins
Trip ifQuality score remains below 3.5 for more than 3 consecutive quarters with operating margins declining below 1%.
- P3Death Cross Momentum Breakdown
Trip ifOn-balance volume falls below 50% of its current level or price drops below $95.
- P4North America Geographic Concentration
Trip ifNorth America revenue concentration rises above 90% or total revenue growth falls below 1% year-over-year.