Value
2.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 0.0 |
| P/S | 6.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 3.5 |
| PEG | 4.1 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 32.4x
- ▸PEG: 2.45
- ▸Expensive valuation
NPO · Why this verdict
Why Enpro (NPO) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Enpro converts earnings to free cash flow at an extraordinary rate of 308% relative to net income, with a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, indicating strong underlying financial health. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow conversion remains above 200% of net income and Piotroski score stays at 8 or above over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh free cash flow relative to net income can reflect working capital timing rather than durable operating quality; margin compression at 4.6 gross score signals limited pricing power. | ||
Enpro has beaten analyst earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of approximately 1.3%, indicating consistent execution against expectations. Earnings | Earnings beat rate remains at 3 out of 4 quarters or better over the next four reporting periods. | →Stable |
| CounterThe average surprise of 1.3% is thin, suggesting estimates are already well-calibrated and large beats are unlikely; recent miss in August 2025 shows vulnerability. | ||
The put/call ratio stands at 2.48 and implied volatility is 66%, indicating the options market is pricing in significant downside risk and hedging activity against this position. Options | Put/call ratio declines below 1.5 over the next 12 months as bearish hedging pressure normalizes. | →Stable |
| CounterElevated put/call ratios can be contrarian buy signals when driven by protective hedges on long positions rather than speculative bearish bets. | ||
The stock is trading above its analyst price target with a negative asymmetry ratio of -1.4, meaning the downside risk of 15% exceeds any remaining upside, reducing reward-to-risk attractiveness. Warnings | Price retreats to a level where upside to analyst target rises above 10% or the analyst target is raised higher than the current price within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterStocks can sustain above-target prices for extended periods if fundamental momentum continues to surprise; the golden cross and RSI at 70 indicate strong near-term price momentum. | ||
Enpro converts earnings to free cash flow at an extraordinary rate of 308% relative to net income, with a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, indicating strong underlying financial health.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow conversion remains above 200% of net income and Piotroski score stays at 8 or above over the next 12 months.
CounterHigh free cash flow relative to net income can reflect working capital timing rather than durable operating quality; margin compression at 4.6 gross score signals limited pricing power.
Enpro has beaten analyst earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of approximately 1.3%, indicating consistent execution against expectations.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings beat rate remains at 3 out of 4 quarters or better over the next four reporting periods.
CounterThe average surprise of 1.3% is thin, suggesting estimates are already well-calibrated and large beats are unlikely; recent miss in August 2025 shows vulnerability.
The put/call ratio stands at 2.48 and implied volatility is 66%, indicating the options market is pricing in significant downside risk and hedging activity against this position.
→StableOptions
- Expectation
- Put/call ratio declines below 1.5 over the next 12 months as bearish hedging pressure normalizes.
CounterElevated put/call ratios can be contrarian buy signals when driven by protective hedges on long positions rather than speculative bearish bets.
The stock is trading above its analyst price target with a negative asymmetry ratio of -1.4, meaning the downside risk of 15% exceeds any remaining upside, reducing reward-to-risk attractiveness.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- Price retreats to a level where upside to analyst target rises above 10% or the analyst target is raised higher than the current price within 12 months.
CounterStocks can sustain above-target prices for extended periods if fundamental momentum continues to surprise; the golden cross and RSI at 70 indicate strong near-term price momentum.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Enpro has delivered strong cash generation with a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 and free cash flow at 308% of net income, but its valuation has moved ahead of fundamentals with a negative asymmetry ratio and the stock trading above its analyst price target, limiting near-term upside.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.0 |
| ROA | 2.9 |
| Gross margin | 4.6 |
| Op margin | 6.3 |
| Net margin | 1.8 |
| Current ratio | 7.6 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 308% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
4.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.2 |
| EPS growth | 4.4 |
Momentum
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
2.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.8 |
| quality rank | 2.0 |
| growth rank | 5.7 |
Technical
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.3 |
| support resistance | 8.5 |
| 52w position | 6.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.8 |
| days to cover | 8.9 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 4.4 |
| beta | 5.0 |
| debt equity | 8.4 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 89.44
Catalyst
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.2 |
| dividend safety | 4.2 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:29d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.5<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-1.5=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.46
Upside
-14.7%
Downside
10.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 29d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.51>1.3
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.4 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Technical at 7.8) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:2.5<4.5, ASYMMETRY:-1.5=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -1.46 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 7.8, Quality at 5.6, and Risk (lower is worse) at 5.1; the weakest are Peer rank at 2.1, Momentum at 2.5, and Value at 2.9. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.46 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Exceptional Cash Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow conversion falls below 150% of net income for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Earnings Beat Consistency
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters.
- P3Elevated Options Market Risk
Trip ifPut/call ratio rises above 3.5 or implied volatility exceeds 80%.
- P4Negative Price Asymmetry
Trip ifStock price rises above $380 without a corresponding analyst target increase above $380.