Value
4.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 4.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.6 |
| p ocf | 7.2 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸P/OCF: 14.4x (FFO proxy — REITs gated off P/E)
NHI · Why this verdict
Why National Health Investors (NHI) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.3 |
| ROA | 2.9 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 2.4 |
| FCF quality | 9.7 |
| Moat | 4.6 |
| Rule of 40 | 8.1 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Strong margins: 37%
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 140% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Rule of 40: 49 (pass)
Growth
3.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 1.9 |
| EPS growth | 4.9 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -3%
Momentum
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 9.1 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.5%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.3 |
| Analyst rating | 6.8 |
| Price target | 7.7 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.45 (n=2)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (8.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 20%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.7 |
| quality rank | 7.3 |
| growth rank | 2.3 |
Technical
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.2 |
| support resistance | 7.3 |
| 52w position | 5.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.8 |
| days to cover | 6.2 |
| volatility | 5.6 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.2 |
| beta | 9.7 |
| debt equity | 5.1 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸High IV: 79%
Catalyst
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 2.9 |
| dividend safety | 3.5 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.0>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:52d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.8<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
0.81
Upside
+4.4%
Downside
5.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $3.5B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.3 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Sentiment at 7.2) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:0.8<1.5@spot) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.81 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 7.2, Quality at 6.8, and Technical at 6.7; the weakest are Growth at 3.4, Catalyst at 4.3, and Peer rank at 4.8. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.81 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.