Value
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.9 |
| P/S | 4.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.7 |
| PEG | 4.5 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 19.1x
- ▸PEG: 2.02
NDAQ · Why this verdict
Why Nasdaq (NDAQ) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Nasdaq operates with a wide economic moat, 35% net margins, a Rule of 40 score of 42, and a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, reflecting a durable franchise with pricing power across exchange listings, market data, and financial technology services. Quality breakdown | Quality score remains above 7.0 and net margins hold above 30% over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterExchange businesses face structural fee compression from regulators and competition, and the moat may erode faster than expected if dark pool and alternative trading venue market share continues to grow. | ||
Nasdaq has beaten analyst EPS estimates in all 4 of the most recent quarters with a consistent 3-4% positive surprise each quarter, reflecting a business with predictable revenue streams and tight operational management. Catalyst breakdown | The company beats consensus EPS estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 quarterly reports, maintaining the consistency of the beat track record. | →Stable |
| CounterConsistent 3-4% beats may indicate that analysts have already adjusted their models to account for conservative guidance, and any reduction in trading volumes or data licensing renewals could break the streak. | ||
Approximately 73% of revenue is tied to the Nasdaq-100 core indices, meaning a significant decline in index-linked assets under management, licensing fees, or ETF assets would disproportionately impact the company's top line. Bear case | Non-Nasdaq-100-index revenue streams grow faster than overall revenue and reduce the concentration to below 65% over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe Nasdaq-100's global brand recognition and ETF ecosystem are extraordinarily entrenched — the concentration reflects a dominant position in a growing market rather than a vulnerability. | ||
With only 5.3% upside implied to the analyst consensus price target, the stock is priced for perfection at current levels, meaning execution needs to be flawless to generate meaningful returns over the next 12 months without a re-rating. Valuation breakdown | Analyst price targets are revised upward by at least 10% within the next 12 months, reopening a more favorable risk-reward setup. | →Stable |
| CounterFor a compounding franchise like Nasdaq, price-to-target upside is less relevant than the durability of the underlying business; investors may accept modest near-term upside in exchange for long-duration quality exposure. | ||
Nasdaq operates with a wide economic moat, 35% net margins, a Rule of 40 score of 42, and a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, reflecting a durable franchise with pricing power across exchange listings, market data, and financial technology services.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Quality score remains above 7.0 and net margins hold above 30% over the next 12 months.
CounterExchange businesses face structural fee compression from regulators and competition, and the moat may erode faster than expected if dark pool and alternative trading venue market share continues to grow.
Nasdaq has beaten analyst EPS estimates in all 4 of the most recent quarters with a consistent 3-4% positive surprise each quarter, reflecting a business with predictable revenue streams and tight operational management.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The company beats consensus EPS estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 quarterly reports, maintaining the consistency of the beat track record.
CounterConsistent 3-4% beats may indicate that analysts have already adjusted their models to account for conservative guidance, and any reduction in trading volumes or data licensing renewals could break the streak.
Approximately 73% of revenue is tied to the Nasdaq-100 core indices, meaning a significant decline in index-linked assets under management, licensing fees, or ETF assets would disproportionately impact the company's top line.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Non-Nasdaq-100-index revenue streams grow faster than overall revenue and reduce the concentration to below 65% over 12 months.
CounterThe Nasdaq-100's global brand recognition and ETF ecosystem are extraordinarily entrenched — the concentration reflects a dominant position in a growing market rather than a vulnerability.
With only 5.3% upside implied to the analyst consensus price target, the stock is priced for perfection at current levels, meaning execution needs to be flawless to generate meaningful returns over the next 12 months without a re-rating.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Analyst price targets are revised upward by at least 10% within the next 12 months, reopening a more favorable risk-reward setup.
CounterFor a compounding franchise like Nasdaq, price-to-target upside is less relevant than the durability of the underlying business; investors may accept modest near-term upside in exchange for long-duration quality exposure.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Nasdaq, Inc. is a wide-moat exchange and financial technology business with a perfect 4-quarter earnings beat streak, 35% operating margins, a Rule of 40 score of 42, and a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 — a true compounder-quality franchise — though concentrated exposure to its Nasdaq-100 core indices at 73% of revenue and a current price offering only 5.3% upside to analyst targets limit the near-term asymmetry.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.4 |
| ROA | 3.7 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.0 |
| FCF quality | 6.1 |
| Moat | 7.6 |
| Rule of 40 | 7.3 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 35%
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
- ▸Rule of 40: 42 (pass)
Growth
7.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.9 |
| EPS growth | 8.8 |
Momentum
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 3.1 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 2.9 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.2 |
| Analyst rating | 7.3 |
| Price target | 8.2 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.43 (n=6)
- ▸Analyst upside: 25%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider buying — $1,923,679 (0.004% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.2 |
| quality rank | 5.7 |
| growth rank | 5.5 |
Technical
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.7 |
| support resistance | 5.0 |
| 52w position | 6.7 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.9 |
| days to cover | 8.0 |
| volatility | 2.9 |
| put call | 7.2 |
| implied vol | 6.0 |
| beta | 7.0 |
| debt equity | 6.3 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.5 |
| dividend safety | 6.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 132.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:4.9>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:20d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:1.3<1.5@spot
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
1.34
Upside
+12.8%
Downside
9.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 47 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 20d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:4.9>=4.5. Top dim: Sentiment at 7.5; weakest: Peer rank at 4.8. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 7.5, Growth at 7.4, and Quality at 7.3; the weakest are Peer rank at 4.8, Momentum at 4.9, and Value at 4.9. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.34 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Wide Moat Compounder Quality
Trip ifNet margin falls below 25% or quality score drops below 6.5 for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifThe company misses consensus EPS estimates by more than 5% in 2 of the next 4 quarterly reports.
- P3Nasdaq 100 Revenue Concentration
Trip ifIndex-linked revenue falls below 60% of total revenue as non-index segments decline, or Nasdaq-100 ETF assets under management decline more than 20% from current levels.
- P4Limited Near Term Upside To Target
Trip ifAnalyst price target consensus declines more than 10% or upside to target falls below 0% — meaning the stock trades above the analyst target.