Value
8.4/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.7 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 7.1x
- ▸PEG: 0.00
- ▸Attractively valued
NABL · Why this verdict
Why N-able (NABL) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
N-able screens cheap on both earnings and cash-flow measures, but a confirmed downtrend below the 200-day moving average and falling analyst estimates complicate the value case despite strong balance-sheet quality signals.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
N-able trades at a forward P/E of 8.6x with a PEG ratio of just 0.01, screening as attractively valued relative to its growth. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E multiple should expand toward peer averages over the next 12 months if the value thesis holds. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe stock may be cheap because earnings estimates are trending down, which could mean the low multiple already prices in deteriorating fundamentals. | ||
N-able generates positive free cash flow (FCF margin 15%, FCF yield 10.5%) despite a GAAP net loss, and scores a strong 8/9 on the Piotroski F-Score. Quality breakdown | FCF margin should hold at or above 15% and the Piotroski score should stay strong over the next 12 months, confirming underlying financial health. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA GAAP loss alongside positive FCF can also reflect aggressive capitalization of costs, which may not persist if accounting adjustments normalize. | ||
The stock is below its 200-day moving average with the MA sloping down -10.0% over 30 days, a confirmed downtrend even after a recent overbought bear-market rally (RSI 79). Momentum breakdown | Price should reclaim and hold above the 200-day moving average with the MA slope turning positive over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe overbought RSI reading and rising on-balance volume suggest the bear rally could continue and eventually reverse the downtrend. | ||
Analyst earnings estimates have been trending down, falling 8.3% over the last 30 days, a bearish forward signal that offsets the headline value case. Sentiment breakdown | The 30-day estimate revision trend should turn positive over the next 12 months if the underlying business is stabilizing. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterEstimate cuts could already be reflected in the current valuation, meaning further downside may be limited. | ||
N-able trades at a forward P/E of 8.6x with a PEG ratio of just 0.01, screening as attractively valued relative to its growth.
↑ImprovingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E multiple should expand toward peer averages over the next 12 months if the value thesis holds.
CounterThe stock may be cheap because earnings estimates are trending down, which could mean the low multiple already prices in deteriorating fundamentals.
N-able generates positive free cash flow (FCF margin 15%, FCF yield 10.5%) despite a GAAP net loss, and scores a strong 8/9 on the Piotroski F-Score.
↓DeterioratingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF margin should hold at or above 15% and the Piotroski score should stay strong over the next 12 months, confirming underlying financial health.
CounterA GAAP loss alongside positive FCF can also reflect aggressive capitalization of costs, which may not persist if accounting adjustments normalize.
The stock is below its 200-day moving average with the MA sloping down -10.0% over 30 days, a confirmed downtrend even after a recent overbought bear-market rally (RSI 79).
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should reclaim and hold above the 200-day moving average with the MA slope turning positive over the next 12 months.
CounterThe overbought RSI reading and rising on-balance volume suggest the bear rally could continue and eventually reverse the downtrend.
Analyst earnings estimates have been trending down, falling 8.3% over the last 30 days, a bearish forward signal that offsets the headline value case.
↓DeterioratingSentiment breakdown
- Expectation
- The 30-day estimate revision trend should turn positive over the next 12 months if the underlying business is stabilizing.
CounterEstimate cuts could already be reflected in the current valuation, meaning further downside may be limited.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 1.4 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 5.3 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.9 |
| FCF quality | 6.6 |
| Moat | 5.9 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸FCF-positive despite GAAP loss (FCF margin 13%, FCF yield 11.4%)
- ▸Rule of 40: 19 (fail)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
4.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.0 |
Momentum
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 0.4 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 10.0 |
| vol acceleration | 8.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -9.0%/30d — confirmed downtrend
- ▸Volume surge (2.0x avg) on up move
Sentiment
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 3.4 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.6 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: -0.32 (n=5)
- ▸Analyst upside: 52%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.9 |
| quality rank | 1.9 |
| growth rank | 4.1 |
Technical
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.7 |
| support resistance | 6.9 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.2 |
| days to cover | 8.5 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 7.7 |
| news risk | 3.0 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 4.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.6 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- ASYMMETRY:2.1>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:83d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.1<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
2.13
Upside
+31.9%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.6B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -59% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.5 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 8.4) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:4.1<4.5, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 2.13 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.4, Insider at 7.3, and Risk (lower is worse) at 6.1; the weakest are Growth at 4.0, Momentum at 4.1, and Peer rank at 4.3. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.13 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Deep Value Multiple Support
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 15x from the current 8.6x while the PEG ratio exceeds 1.0.
- P2Confirmed Downtrend Below 200ma
Trip ifPrice closes back above the 200-day moving average and the MA slope rises above 0%/30d.
- P3Positive Fcf Despite Gaap Loss
Trip ifFCF margin falls below 5% from the current 15%.
- P4Falling Analyst Estimates
Trip ifThe 30-day earnings estimate revision rises above 0% from the current -8.3%.