Value
6.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.8 |
| PEG | 4.9 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 15.5x
- ▸PEG: 1.64
MTUS · Why this verdict
Why Metallus (MTUS) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Metallus screens cheap on a forward basis and has beaten EPS estimates in most recent quarters, but quality sits below the engine's floor and momentum shows capitulation-level weakness.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The stock shows capitulation-level technical weakness, with a low RSI reading and price below its 200-day moving average. Momentum breakdown | RSI should recover above 40 while price stabilizes above key support. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe 200-day moving average itself is still rising, which the engine notes suggests this is a pullback within an intact uptrend rather than a confirmed trend reversal. | ||
Fundamental quality is deeply impaired, with a quality score below the engine's 4.0 floor and an extreme negative earnings-quality red flag on free cash flow versus net income. Quality breakdown | The quality score should rise above 4.0 within the next 2 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterA strong Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9 suggests balance-sheet fundamentals are healthier than the cash-flow red flag alone implies. | ||
Despite quality and momentum concerns, the stock trades at an attractive forward valuation of about 13.1x forward earnings. Valuation breakdown | The value score should stay above 6.0 as the valuation discount persists or the price re-rates upward. | Tripped↓Deteriorating |
| CounterCheap valuation in a cyclical steel producer with a deeply negative cash-flow-quality flag can reflect a genuine value trap rather than an overlooked opportunity. | ||
The company has beaten EPS estimates in 3 of its last 4 quarters. Earnings | The beat pattern should continue with at least one more beat in the next 2 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe average surprise percentage is deeply negative because of one severe miss, showing that when the company misses, it misses by a wide margin. | ||
The stock shows capitulation-level technical weakness, with a low RSI reading and price below its 200-day moving average.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI should recover above 40 while price stabilizes above key support.
CounterThe 200-day moving average itself is still rising, which the engine notes suggests this is a pullback within an intact uptrend rather than a confirmed trend reversal.
Fundamental quality is deeply impaired, with a quality score below the engine's 4.0 floor and an extreme negative earnings-quality red flag on free cash flow versus net income.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The quality score should rise above 4.0 within the next 2 quarters.
CounterA strong Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9 suggests balance-sheet fundamentals are healthier than the cash-flow red flag alone implies.
Despite quality and momentum concerns, the stock trades at an attractive forward valuation of about 13.1x forward earnings.
Tripped↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The value score should stay above 6.0 as the valuation discount persists or the price re-rates upward.
CounterCheap valuation in a cyclical steel producer with a deeply negative cash-flow-quality flag can reflect a genuine value trap rather than an overlooked opportunity.
The company has beaten EPS estimates in 3 of its last 4 quarters.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat pattern should continue with at least one more beat in the next 2 quarters.
CounterThe average surprise percentage is deeply negative because of one severe miss, showing that when the company misses, it misses by a wide margin.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.1 |
| ROA | 0.3 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 1.0 |
| Net margin | 0.1 |
| Current ratio | 6.2 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -1594% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.0 |
Momentum
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.1 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 78)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 6.3 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
| notable moves | 5.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.8 |
| quality rank | 2.2 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.4 |
| support resistance | 0.5 |
| 52w position | 9.1 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.0 |
| days to cover | 5.8 |
| volatility | 4.8 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 3.5 |
| beta | 5.5 |
| debt equity | 9.9 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 3.61
Catalyst
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Earnings in 10 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.6>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.5=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:10d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.51
Upside
-7.7%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 10d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.36>1.3, MCap $0.9B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's -0.5=NEGATIVE outcome against Value at 6.8 and asymmetric R:R of -0.51.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 6.8, Momentum at 6.6, and Sentiment at 5.4; the weakest are Quality at 2.5, Technical at 3.8, and Catalyst at 4.2. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.51 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Quality Below Floor
Trip ifQuality score rises above 4.0 within 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Capitulation Level Momentum
Trip ifRSI falls below 20 within 30 days while the 200-day moving average slope turns negative.
- P3Attractive Forward ValuationTripped
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 20x from the current 13.1x without at least a 15% price increase.
- P4Earnings Beat Pattern
Trip ifThe company misses EPS estimates in at least 2 of its next 4 reported quarters.