M&T Bank (MTB) Q3 2026 earnings — TrendMatrix coverage
Reported
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Full disclosure
Key numbers
- Adjusted EPS
- $5.04
- Estimate
- $4.92
- Surprise
- +2.4%
- Score at report (before → after)
- 5.8 → 5.8/10
Revenue for this quarter isn’t shown: the reported figure hasn’t cleared TrendMatrix’s freshness and sanity checks yet, and consensus revenue isn’t tracked. EPS above is the available figure.
How the report landed
M&T Bank (MTB) beat the $4.92 estimate with adjusted EPS of $5.04 — a modest 2.4% upside surprise. TrendMatrix's engine moved from Buy (Wait) (5.8/10) to Hold at 5.8/10 after the report.
Where TrendMatrix's rating stands now
TrendMatrix currently rates MTB Hold at 5.8/10.
4 of the last 4 quarters beat the estimate; this quarter's +2.4% surprise compares with a +5.9% four-quarter average.
What supports the rating
- Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
- Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
What argues against it
- Thin upside margin: 4.4%
- V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.5)
- Reward/Risk 0.9:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum
This section and the ones below it reflect TrendMatrix’s latest engine read — they update after the report date and are not frozen to it.
The levels TrendMatrix's engine tracks
- Current price
- $215.28
- Price target
- $224.84
- Stop
- $206.54
- Upside to target
- +4.4%
- Reward-to-risk
- 0.9:1
At 11.4× trailing and 10.2× forward earnings, consensus estimates imply little change in earnings power.
Risk check: trading volume is running 2.0× its average — elevated turnover around the report window.
Model outputs from TrendMatrix’s engine as of 2026-10-17 — shown for context, not personalized investment advice.
MTB at TrendMatrix's latest read
For financials, the EPS print is only half the story: credit costs, reserve builds, and rate sensitivity decide how a quarter actually lands.
- Industry
- Banks - Regional
- Market cap
- $31.20B
- P/E (fwd)
- 10.2
- P/E (ttm)
- 11.4
- 52-week range
- $179.32–$255.95
- Off 52-week high
- 15.9%
- RSI (14)
- 38
- Volume vs avg
- 2.03×
- Score today
- 5.8/10