Value
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.2 |
| P/S | 8.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 4.6 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 26.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.25
MSGE · Why this verdict
Why Madison Square Garden Entertain (MSGE) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Madison Square Garden Entertainment has strong price momentum and a 3-out-of-4 earnings beat record, but the stock has already reached and slightly exceeded analyst price targets, leaving very limited near-term upside with downside risk of 9%.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The stock scores 7.9/10 on momentum, trading above its 200-day moving average with rising volume accumulation, and RSI at 71 indicating strong buying pressure over recent months. Momentum breakdown | The stock maintains a position above its 200-day moving average for at least 6 of the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterAn RSI of 71 signals the stock is overbought, and with the price already above the analyst target, momentum is likely to stall or reverse as buyers run out of fundamental justification. | ||
Madison Square Garden Entertainment beat earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 18.6%, including a standout 51% beat in November 2025. Earnings | The company beats earnings estimates in at least 2 of the next 4 reported quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe one miss was severe at -21.4% in February 2026, and the erratic quarterly profile (including negative EPS prints) suggests earnings predictability is low despite the headline beat ratio. | ||
The company carries a debt-to-equity ratio of 24.7, which depresses its quality score and creates financial risk if operating cash flows disappoint, while the forward price-to-earnings of 29.5x is high for an entertainment business with inconsistent earnings. Quality breakdown | Debt-to-equity ratio decreases below 20x within 12 months as the company generates free cash flow to reduce obligations. | →Stable |
| CounterFree cash flow conversion is exceptionally high at 671% of net income, meaning the leverage may be manageable if cash generation continues at this pace. | ||
The stock is trading at $74.57, above the technical take-profit level of $73.44, meaning the near-term price target has been reached and downside risk of 5.5% exceeds upside of -1.5%, producing a negative risk-reward ratio. Targets | A new fundamental catalyst emerges that lifts analyst targets above $80 within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterWith a put/call ratio of 2.56 and high implied volatility of 94%, the options market is pricing in significant risk of a sharp decline, consistent with the negative asymmetry reading. | ||
The stock scores 7.9/10 on momentum, trading above its 200-day moving average with rising volume accumulation, and RSI at 71 indicating strong buying pressure over recent months.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock maintains a position above its 200-day moving average for at least 6 of the next 12 months.
CounterAn RSI of 71 signals the stock is overbought, and with the price already above the analyst target, momentum is likely to stall or reverse as buyers run out of fundamental justification.
Madison Square Garden Entertainment beat earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 18.6%, including a standout 51% beat in November 2025.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The company beats earnings estimates in at least 2 of the next 4 reported quarters.
CounterThe one miss was severe at -21.4% in February 2026, and the erratic quarterly profile (including negative EPS prints) suggests earnings predictability is low despite the headline beat ratio.
The company carries a debt-to-equity ratio of 24.7, which depresses its quality score and creates financial risk if operating cash flows disappoint, while the forward price-to-earnings of 29.5x is high for an entertainment business with inconsistent earnings.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Debt-to-equity ratio decreases below 20x within 12 months as the company generates free cash flow to reduce obligations.
CounterFree cash flow conversion is exceptionally high at 671% of net income, meaning the leverage may be manageable if cash generation continues at this pace.
The stock is trading at $74.57, above the technical take-profit level of $73.44, meaning the near-term price target has been reached and downside risk of 5.5% exceeds upside of -1.5%, producing a negative risk-reward ratio.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- A new fundamental catalyst emerges that lifts analyst targets above $80 within 12 months.
CounterWith a put/call ratio of 2.56 and high implied volatility of 94%, the options market is pricing in significant risk of a sharp decline, consistent with the negative asymmetry reading.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 3.9 |
| Gross margin | 5.5 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 3.1 |
| Current ratio | 2.8 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 6.8 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 408%
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 520% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
9.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 9.3 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 27% YoY
Momentum
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 8.6 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Oversold in uptrend (RSI 21)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.8 |
| Price target | 7.4 |
| erm sentiment | 4.4 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (8.0) — signal dampened
Insider
6.5/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 5.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $737,873 (0.020% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.8 |
| quality rank | 8.0 |
| growth rank | 8.5 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.1 |
| support resistance | 8.5 |
| 52w position | 7.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.4 |
| days to cover | 8.2 |
| volatility | 5.7 |
| put call | 3.6 |
| implied vol | 5.1 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 9.6 |
| debt equity | 0.0 |
Catalyst
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:4.5>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:61d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.5<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.5<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
0.46
Upside
+2.5%
Downside
5.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $3.7B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.0 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 9.7) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:0.5<1.5@spot) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.46 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.7, Technical at 7.6, and Catalyst at 6.7; the weakest are Momentum at 4.5, Peer rank at 5.1, and Value at 5.3. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.46 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Price Momentum
Trip ifStock price falls below its 200-day moving average and stays below for more than 20 trading days.
- P2Earnings Beat Track Record
Trip ifThe company misses earnings estimates by more than 15% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Leverage And Valuation Risk
Trip ifReported debt-to-equity ratio rises above 30x in any quarterly filing.
- P4Target Reached Limited Upside
Trip ifStock price drops below $70.45, the defined stop-loss level, on a closing basis.