Marathon Petroleum (MPC) Q3 2026 earnings — TrendMatrix coverage
Reported
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Full disclosure · Editorial policy
Key numbers
- Adjusted EPS
- $26.93
- Estimate
- $26.00
- Surprise
- +3.6%
- Revenue (period 2026-09-30)
- $56.03B
- Score today
- 6.6/10
Revenue source: xbrl.
How the report landed
Marathon Petroleum (MPC) beat the $26.00 estimate with adjusted EPS of $26.93 — a clear 3.6% upside surprise.
Where TrendMatrix's rating stands now
TrendMatrix currently rates MPC Hold at 6.6/10; no pre/post engine snapshot brackets this report.
4 of the last 4 quarters beat the estimate; this quarter's +3.6% surprise compares with a +50.4% four-quarter average.
What supports the rating
- Sector modifier (Energy): +1.2
- Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
What argues against it
- Concentration risk — Supplier: crude oil feedstocks (no self-production)
- Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
- V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4)
This section and the ones below it reflect TrendMatrix’s latest engine read — they update after the report date and are not frozen to it.
The levels TrendMatrix's engine tracks
- Current price
- $427.34
- Stop
- $401.64
The stock trades at 8.5× trailing but 6.9× forward earnings — consensus estimates already build in a substantial earnings recovery.
Risk check: RSI 27 — a level conventionally read as oversold.
Model outputs from TrendMatrix’s engine as of 2026-11-04 — shown for context, not personalized investment advice.
MPC at TrendMatrix's latest read
Energy results are commodity-price arithmetic first; the operational beat or miss is read net of what the strip already told the market.
- Industry
- Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
- Market cap
- $124.76B
- P/E (fwd)
- 6.9
- P/E (ttm)
- 8.5
- 52-week range
- $161.93–$493.98
- Off 52-week high
- 13.5%
- RSI (14)
- 27
- Volume vs avg
- 1.31×
- Score today
- 6.6/10