Marathon Petroleum (MPC) Q2 2026 earnings — TrendMatrix coverage
Reported
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Full disclosure
Key numbers
- Adjusted EPS
- $17.73
- Estimate
- $13.95
- Surprise
- +27.1%
- Revenue (period 2026-06-30)
- $51.99B
- Score at report (before → after)
- 5.4 → 5.5/10
Revenue source: xbrl.
How the report landed
Marathon Petroleum (MPC) beat the $13.95 estimate with adjusted EPS of $17.73 — a large 27.1% upside surprise. TrendMatrix's engine moved from Buy (Wait) (5.4/10) to Hold at 5.5/10 after the report.
Where TrendMatrix's rating stands now
TrendMatrix currently rates MPC Hold at 6.4/10.
3 of the last 4 quarters beat the estimate; this quarter's +27.1% surprise compares with a +48.2% four-quarter average. Next scheduled report: 2026-11-03.
What supports the rating
- Sector modifier (Energy): +1.2
- Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
What argues against it
- Concentration risk — Supplier: crude oil feedstocks (no self-production)
- Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
- Near 52-week high (-1.1% away)
This section and the ones below it reflect TrendMatrix’s latest engine read — they update after the report date and are not frozen to it.
The levels TrendMatrix's engine tracks
- Current price
- $482.89
- Price target
- $555.32
- Stop
- $450.91
- Upside to target
- +15.0%
The stock trades at 16.5× trailing but 8.6× forward earnings — consensus estimates already build in a substantial earnings recovery.
Risk check: RSI 89 — a level conventionally read as overbought; gains at these levels often lean on momentum.
Model outputs from TrendMatrix’s engine as of 2026-10-14 — shown for context, not personalized investment advice.
MPC at TrendMatrix's latest read
Energy results are commodity-price arithmetic first; the operational beat or miss is read net of what the strip already told the market.
- Industry
- Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
- Market cap
- $139.25B
- P/E (fwd)
- 8.6
- P/E (ttm)
- 16.5
- 52-week range
- $161.93–$477.64
- Off 52-week high
- -1.1%
- RSI (14)
- 89
- Volume vs avg
- 0.42×
- Score today
- 6.4/10