Mach Natural Resources (MNR) Q3 2026 earnings — TrendMatrix coverage
Reported
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Full disclosure · Editorial policy
Key numbers
- Adjusted EPS
- $0.06
- Estimate
- $0.31
- Surprise
- -80.7%
- Revenue (period 2026-09-30)
- $319.2M
- Score at report (before → after)
- 6.9 → 6.8/10
Revenue source: xbrl.
How the report landed
Mach Natural Resources (MNR) missed the $0.31 estimate with adjusted EPS of $0.06 — a large 80.7% shortfall. TrendMatrix's engine moved from Hold (6.9/10) to Sell at 6.8/10 after the report.
Coverage in the report window
- Mach Natural Resources Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript — benzinga, 2026-11-06
- Mach Natural Resources Reports Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results — fiscal.ai, 2026-11-06
- Mach Natural Resources LP Reports Q3 2026 Financial Results — fiscal.ai, 2026-11-05
Where TrendMatrix's rating stands now
TrendMatrix currently rates MNR Sell at 6.8/10.
2 of the last 4 quarters beat the estimate; this quarter's -80.7% surprise compares with a -21.7% four-quarter average. Next scheduled report: 2027-03-11.
What supports the rating
- Sector modifier (Energy): +1.2
- Attractive valuation
What argues against it
- Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 6.7× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.45× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.
- V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.0)
- Consecutive earnings misses (2)
This section and the ones below it reflect TrendMatrix’s latest engine read — they update after the report date and are not frozen to it.
The levels TrendMatrix's engine tracks
- Current price
- $9.00
- Price target
- $14.67
- Stop
- $8.66
- Upside to target
- +63.0%
- Reward-to-risk
- 8.2:1
The stock trades at 15.0× trailing but 6.7× forward earnings — consensus estimates already build in a substantial earnings recovery.
Risk check: RSI 13 — a level conventionally read as oversold; trading volume is running 2.9× its average — elevated turnover around the report window.
Model outputs from TrendMatrix’s engine as of 2026-11-07 — shown for context, not personalized investment advice.
MNR at TrendMatrix's latest read
Energy results are commodity-price arithmetic first; the operational beat or miss is read net of what the strip already told the market.
- Industry
- Oil & Gas E&P
- Market cap
- $1.50B
- P/E (fwd)
- 6.7
- P/E (ttm)
- 15.0
- 52-week range
- $8.93–$15.02
- Off 52-week high
- 40.1%
- RSI (14)
- 13
- Volume vs avg
- 2.94×
- Score today
- 6.8/10