Maximus screens as attractively valued at a forward P/E of 6.7 times with analyst consensus implying 72% upside and a beat track record across 3 of the last 4 quarters, but more than half of revenue is concentrated in U.S. federal government contracts, revenue has declined roughly 4% year-over-year, and a confirmed 200-day moving average downtrend creates a setup that is compelling on valuation yet constrained by structural risks.
Thesis pillars
- Compelling Valuation With Wide Upside→Stable
- Federal Contract Concentration Risk→Stable
- Revenue Contraction Undermines Growth Thesis→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Maximus, Inc. (MMS) Stock Analysis
Falling Knife setup
Industrials · Specialty Business Services
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $55.75 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. federal government (55.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: ten largest contracts (60.0%).
Maximus provides tech-enabled program administration to government agencies through three segments: U.S. Federal Services (56% of FY2025 revenue), U.S. Services (32%), and Outside the U.S. (11%). In FY2025, 55% of total revenue came from the U.S. federal government and 60% from... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $55.75 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. federal government (55.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: ten largest contracts (60.0%). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 31, MACD bearish. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 33d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-06Recent Developments — Maximus, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Why Maximus (MMS) is a great dividend stock right now - MSN — MSN positive
- NEWS MMS Training Center hosts event for National Apprentice Week - CIProud.com — CIProud.com neutral
- NEWS Maximus (MMS) Q1 Earnings: What To Expect - StockStory — StockStory neutral
- NEWS Maximus (MMS) Q1 Earnings: What To Expect - FinancialContent — FinancialContent neutral
- NEWS Maximus Names Elizabeth Moellering General Counsel Shaping Contract And Risk Focus - Sahm — Sahm positive
Generated 2026-07-06T04:40:27Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomerU.S. federal government55%10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 55% of our total revenue was derived from the U.S. federal government'
- HIGHCustomerten largest contracts60%10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 60% of our revenue came from our ten largest contracts'
- MEDIUMCustomerstate and local government agencies33%10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 33% of our total revenue was derived from contracts with state and local government agencies'
- LOWCustomersingle federal agency10-K Item 1A: 'approximately one-fifth of our revenue came from contracts with a single federal agency'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Revenue shrinking — -4.1% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $55.75 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. federal government (55.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: ten largest contracts (60.0%). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 31, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $51.85. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $89.25 (+60.1% upside). Prior stop was $51.85. Stop-loss: $51.85.
Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. federal government (55.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: ten largest contracts (60.0%); Weak growth.
Maximus, Inc. trades at a P/E of 8.4 (forward 6.1). TrendMatrix value score: 8.8/10. Verdict: Sell.
6 analysts cover MMS with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $105.
What does Maximus, Inc. do?Maximus provides tech-enabled program administration to government agencies through three segments: U.S. Federal...
Maximus provides tech-enabled program administration to government agencies through three segments: U.S. Federal Services (56% of FY2025 revenue), U.S. Services (32%), and Outside the U.S. (11%). In FY2025, 55% of total revenue came from the U.S. federal government and 60% from its ten largest contracts, across a workforce of approximately 37,200 employees.