Value
7.6/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.2 |
| P/S | 9.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.2 |
| PEG | 7.3 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 14.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.94
- ▸Attractively valued
MG · Why this verdict
Why Mistras Group (MG) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
MG shows a strong Piotroski trend and a prior earnings-beat streak, but failed momentum and asymmetry gates, elevated put/call positioning, and bearish insider selling weigh on the setup.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quality is scored 3.6, just below the engine's 4.0 floor, though the balance sheet shows a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9. Quality breakdown | The overall quality score should cross above 4.0 as margin and moat weaknesses are offset by the strong Piotroski trend. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA red-flagged earnings-quality ratio of just 13% FCF-to-net-income suggests reported earnings may not be backed by real cash generation. | ||
The V9 engine failed both the momentum gate, at 3.5 versus the 4.5 threshold, and the asymmetry gate, at 0.8 versus the 1.5 threshold. Engine gate (failed) | Momentum should rise above 4.5 and the asymmetry ratio above 1.5 as the technical setup strengthens. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe stock is described as oversold in an uptrend with RSI at 24, a condition that has historically preceded short-term bounces. | ||
Options positioning shows an elevated put/call ratio of 5.26 alongside high implied volatility of 82%, both flagged as risk factors. Risk breakdown | The put/call ratio should normalize toward 1.0 or below as options positioning becomes less skewed toward puts. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAn extremely high put/call ratio can also reflect hedging activity rather than outright bearish directional bets. | ||
The company has beaten estimates in 2 of the last 4 quarters with a positive average surprise of 19.2%, despite one recent miss of -7.3%. Earnings | The beat rate should hold at 2 or more of the next 4 quarters with average surprise remaining positive. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe most recent reported quarter carries no comparable estimate data, making the beat/miss trend harder to confirm going forward. | ||
The insider signal reads bearish, following an $18,000 sale representing 0.003% of market cap in the trailing 90 days. Insider | Insider activity should turn neutral or bullish as buying resumes or selling ceases. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe sale is explicitly described as negligible in materiality, offering weak evidence of genuine insider bearishness. | ||
Quality is scored 3.6, just below the engine's 4.0 floor, though the balance sheet shows a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9.
↑ImprovingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The overall quality score should cross above 4.0 as margin and moat weaknesses are offset by the strong Piotroski trend.
CounterA red-flagged earnings-quality ratio of just 13% FCF-to-net-income suggests reported earnings may not be backed by real cash generation.
The V9 engine failed both the momentum gate, at 3.5 versus the 4.5 threshold, and the asymmetry gate, at 0.8 versus the 1.5 threshold.
↑ImprovingEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- Momentum should rise above 4.5 and the asymmetry ratio above 1.5 as the technical setup strengthens.
CounterThe stock is described as oversold in an uptrend with RSI at 24, a condition that has historically preceded short-term bounces.
Options positioning shows an elevated put/call ratio of 5.26 alongside high implied volatility of 82%, both flagged as risk factors.
↓DeterioratingRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- The put/call ratio should normalize toward 1.0 or below as options positioning becomes less skewed toward puts.
CounterAn extremely high put/call ratio can also reflect hedging activity rather than outright bearish directional bets.
The company has beaten estimates in 2 of the last 4 quarters with a positive average surprise of 19.2%, despite one recent miss of -7.3%.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat rate should hold at 2 or more of the next 4 quarters with average surprise remaining positive.
CounterThe most recent reported quarter carries no comparable estimate data, making the beat/miss trend harder to confirm going forward.
The insider signal reads bearish, following an $18,000 sale representing 0.003% of market cap in the trailing 90 days.
↑ImprovingInsider
- Expectation
- Insider activity should turn neutral or bullish as buying resumes or selling ceases.
CounterThe sale is explicitly described as negligible in materiality, offering weak evidence of genuine insider bearishness.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.9 |
| ROA | 4.2 |
| Gross margin | 2.3 |
| Op margin | 3.1 |
| Net margin | 1.8 |
| Current ratio | 6.1 |
| FCF quality | 7.6 |
| Moat | 3.8 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
6.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.6 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
8.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 6.5 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.5 |
| Analyst rating | 6.4 |
| Price target | 7.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (2.0) — signal dampened
Insider
6.6/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 7.7 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.8 |
| quality rank | 2.0 |
| growth rank | 1.0 |
Technical
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 2.6 |
| 52w position | 8.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.1 |
| days to cover | 3.5 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 7.6 |
| debt equity | 5.0 |
- ▸High IV: 94%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 3 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULT|L3:NEWS_MOD=+2|ENTRY_STICKY:PRIOR_STILL_VIABLEPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:8.1>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:82d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.2=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.18
Upside
-2.7%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 69, MACD bullish
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.6B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.6B<$5B
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: MOMENTUM:8.1>=5.5. Top dim: Momentum at 8.1; weakest: Peer rank at 3.5. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 8.1, Value at 7.6, and Catalyst at 7.6; the weakest are Peer rank at 3.5, Technical at 3.8, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.5. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.18 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Quality Below Floor Despite Piotroski
Trip ifOverall quality score falls below 2.0, showing the Piotroski strength failed to offset earnings-quality concerns.
- P2Momentum And Asymmetry Gates Failed
Trip ifMomentum score exceeds 4.5 and asymmetry ratio exceeds 1.5, clearing both V9 gates.
- P3Elevated Put Call And Implied Vol
Trip ifPut/call ratio falls below 1.5, normalizing options positioning from the current 5.26 reading.
- P4Earnings Beat History With Recent Miss
Trip ifEarnings beat rate falls below 1 of the next 4 reported quarters.
- P5Bearish Insider Selling Signal
Trip ifInsider signal flips to bullish with net buying that exceeds $50,000 over a 90-day window.