MFA Financial (MFA) Q3 2026 earnings — TrendMatrix coverage
Reported
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Full disclosure · Editorial policy
Key numbers
- Adjusted EPS
- $0.44
- Estimate
- $0.30
- Surprise
- +46.7%
- Revenue (period 2026-09-30)
- $203.9M
- Score at report (before → after)
- 6.9 → 6.9/10
Revenue source: xbrl.
How the report landed
MFA Financial (MFA) beat the $0.30 estimate with adjusted EPS of $0.44 — a large 46.7% upside surprise. TrendMatrix's engine moved from Buy (Wait) (6.9/10) to Hold at 6.9/10 after the report.
Coverage in the report window
- MFA Finl Q3 Adj. EPS $0.26 Misses $0.30 Estimate, Sales $61.404M Beat $58.129M Estimate — benzinga, 2026-11-04
Where TrendMatrix's rating stands now
TrendMatrix currently rates MFA Hold at 6.9/10.
4 of the last 4 quarters beat the estimate; this quarter's +46.7% surprise compares with a +41.4% four-quarter average.
What supports the rating
- Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
- Attractive valuation
What argues against it
- Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: residential whole loans (68.0%)
- Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2
- Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.4%/30d (confirmed downtrend)
This section and the ones below it reflect TrendMatrix’s latest engine read — they update after the report date and are not frozen to it.
The levels TrendMatrix's engine tracks
- Current price
- $6.61
- Price target
- $11.53
- Stop
- $6.21
- Upside to target
- +74.4%
- Reward-to-risk
- 12.4:1
Model outputs from TrendMatrix’s engine as of 2026-11-05 — shown for context, not personalized investment advice.
MFA at TrendMatrix's latest read
REIT quarters hinge on occupancy, rate exposure, and FFO rather than headline EPS, which mechanically distorts under depreciation.
- Industry
- REIT - Mortgage
- Market cap
- $668.2M
- P/E (fwd)
- 4.8
- 52-week range
- $6.38–$10.43
- Off 52-week high
- 36.6%
- RSI (14)
- 47
- Volume vs avg
- 1.46×
- Score today
- 6.9/10