MFA Financial (MFA) Q2 2026 earnings — TrendMatrix coverage
Reported
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Full disclosure
Key numbers
- Reported EPS
- $0.35
- Estimate
- $0.25
- Surprise
- +42.3%
- Score at report (before → after)
- 6.1 → 6.2/10
Revenue for this quarter isn’t shown: the reported figure hasn’t cleared TrendMatrix’s freshness and sanity checks yet, and consensus revenue isn’t tracked. EPS above is the available figure.
How the report landed
MFA Financial (MFA) beat the $0.25 estimate with diluted EPS of $0.35 — a large 42.3% upside surprise. TrendMatrix's engine moved from Buy (Wait) (6.1/10) to Hold at 6.2/10 after the report.
Where TrendMatrix's rating stands now
TrendMatrix currently rates MFA Buy (Wait) at 6.9/10.
3 of the last 4 quarters beat the estimate; this quarter's +42.3% surprise compares with a +23.0% four-quarter average. Next scheduled report: 2026-11-05.
What supports the rating
- Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
- Earnings estimates trending UP
What argues against it
- Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: residential whole loans (68.0%)
- Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2
- News modifier +1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT
This section and the ones below it reflect TrendMatrix’s latest engine read — they update after the report date and are not frozen to it.
The levels TrendMatrix's engine tracks
- Current price
- $8.95
- Entry target
- $8.54
- Price target
- $12.18
- Stop
- $8.25
- Upside to target
- +36.1%
- Reward-to-risk
- 7.2:1
The stock trades at 8.9× trailing but 6.4× forward earnings — consensus estimates already build in a substantial earnings recovery.
Model outputs from TrendMatrix’s engine as of 2026-09-05 — shown for context, not personalized investment advice.
MFA at TrendMatrix's latest read
REIT quarters hinge on occupancy, rate exposure, and FFO rather than headline EPS, which mechanically distorts under depreciation.
- Industry
- REIT - Mortgage
- Market cap
- $904.7M
- P/E (fwd)
- 6.4
- P/E (ttm)
- 8.9
- 52-week range
- $8.63–$10.57
- Off 52-week high
- 15.3%
- RSI (14)
- 43
- Volume vs avg
- 0.86×
- Score today
- 6.9/10