Value
7.0/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.04
- ▸Attractively valued
MCFT · Why this verdict
Why MasterCraft Boat Holdings (MCFT) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
MasterCraft screens as unusually cheap on a growth-adjusted basis with a perfect 4-quarter earnings beat streak and a bullish technical breakout, though quality sitting right at the engine's floor and a stock price already at its analyst target limit further upside.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company converts free cash flow at 188% of net income and shows a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, both signs of underlying financial health. Quality breakdown | The FCF-to-net-income ratio should stay above 100%. | Tripped→Stable |
| CounterThe engine's overall quality score still sits at the 4.0 floor, indicating other quality dimensions offset the strong cash conversion. | ||
MasterCraft trades at a 12.0x forward P/E with an unusually low PEG ratio of 0.06, suggesting the market hasn't fully priced in its growth. Valuation breakdown | The PEG ratio should stay low while the multiple expands or holds steady. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterQuality score sits right at the engine's 4.0 floor, and the stock has already reached its analyst target, suggesting limited near-term catalysts for further re-rating. | ||
MasterCraft has beaten EPS estimates in all 4 of its last reported quarters, with an average surprise of about 76%. Earnings | The beat streak should continue at the next earnings print. | →Stable |
| CounterRecreational-boat demand is highly cyclical and sensitive to consumer discretionary spending, so a slowdown could quickly break the beat streak. | ||
The stock has formed a bullish technical breakout, with a golden cross, price above all major moving averages, and a bullish MACD reading. Chart pattern detection | Price should hold above its key moving averages, sustaining the breakout structure. | Tripped→Stable |
| CounterThe asymmetry gate has failed, meaning the technical breakout is occurring even as fundamental modeled upside has largely been exhausted. | ||
The company converts free cash flow at 188% of net income and shows a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, both signs of underlying financial health.
Tripped→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The FCF-to-net-income ratio should stay above 100%.
CounterThe engine's overall quality score still sits at the 4.0 floor, indicating other quality dimensions offset the strong cash conversion.
MasterCraft trades at a 12.0x forward P/E with an unusually low PEG ratio of 0.06, suggesting the market hasn't fully priced in its growth.
↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The PEG ratio should stay low while the multiple expands or holds steady.
CounterQuality score sits right at the engine's 4.0 floor, and the stock has already reached its analyst target, suggesting limited near-term catalysts for further re-rating.
MasterCraft has beaten EPS estimates in all 4 of its last reported quarters, with an average surprise of about 76%.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat streak should continue at the next earnings print.
CounterRecreational-boat demand is highly cyclical and sensitive to consumer discretionary spending, so a slowdown could quickly break the beat streak.
The stock has formed a bullish technical breakout, with a golden cross, price above all major moving averages, and a bullish MACD reading.
Tripped→StableChart pattern detection
- Expectation
- Price should hold above its key moving averages, sustaining the breakout structure.
CounterThe asymmetry gate has failed, meaning the technical breakout is occurring even as fundamental modeled upside has largely been exhausted.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 1.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.6 |
| Op margin | 1.2 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.7 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 4.8 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -6% of revenue
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 63% YoY
Momentum
1.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 0.5 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 2.3 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+2.3%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 8.4 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 28%
Insider
5.7/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.0 |
| quality rank | 2.0 |
| growth rank | 9.0 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.9 |
| support resistance | 7.7 |
| 52w position | 4.4 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.4 |
| days to cover | 5.2 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 4.7 |
| implied vol | 1.5 |
| beta | 6.7 |
- ▸High IV: 71%
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:42d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:1.9<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.0<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.96
Upside
+11.4%
Downside
11.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.5B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.5B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 1.9<4.5 outcome against Growth at 10.0 and asymmetric R:R of 0.96.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Catalyst at 7.5, and Value at 7.0; the weakest are Momentum at 1.9, Quality at 2.5, and Peer rank at 4.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.96 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Cheap Growth Adjusted Valuation
Trip ifPEG ratio rises above 0.5 from the current 0.06.
- P2Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% (a miss) at the next earnings print.
- P3Strong Cash ConversionTripped
Trip ifFCF-to-net-income ratio falls below 100%, reversing from the current 188%.
- P4Technical Breakout SetupTripped
Trip ifPrice falls below its 200-day moving average, breaking the current bullish setup.