McDonald's (MCD) Q3 2026 earnings — TrendMatrix coverage
Reported
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Full disclosure · Editorial policy
Key numbers
- Adjusted EPS
- $3.57
- Estimate
- $3.38
- Surprise
- +5.6%
- Score at report (before → after)
- 5.3 → 5.6/10
Revenue for this quarter isn’t shown: the reported figure hasn’t cleared TrendMatrix’s freshness and sanity checks yet, and consensus revenue isn’t tracked. EPS above is the available figure.
How the report landed
McDonald's (MCD) beat the $3.38 estimate with adjusted EPS of $3.57 — a clear 5.6% upside surprise. TrendMatrix's engine moved from Sell (5.3/10) to Hold at 5.6/10 after the report.
Coverage in the report window
- JPMorgan Adjusts McDonald's Price Target to $270 — fiscal.ai, 2026-11-05
Where TrendMatrix's rating stands now
TrendMatrix currently rates MCD Hold at 5.6/10.
4 of the last 4 quarters beat the estimate; this quarter's +5.6% surprise compares with a +3.2% four-quarter average.
What supports the rating
- V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.6 in RISK_OFF)
- Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
What argues against it
- Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
- Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5
- Weak growth
This section and the ones below it reflect TrendMatrix’s latest engine read — they update after the report date and are not frozen to it.
The levels TrendMatrix's engine tracks
- Current price
- $280.22
- Stop
- $268.32
At 22.2× trailing and 20.4× forward earnings, consensus estimates imply little change in earnings power.
Risk check: RSI 84 — a level conventionally read as overbought; gains at these levels often lean on momentum; trading volume is running 2.0× its average — elevated turnover around the report window.
Model outputs from TrendMatrix’s engine as of 2026-11-05 — shown for context, not personalized investment advice.
MCD at TrendMatrix's latest read
Cyclical consumer names live and die on demand momentum — same-quarter comps and guidance carry more weight than the headline surprise.
- Industry
- Restaurants
- Market cap
- $198.30B
- P/E (fwd)
- 20.4
- P/E (ttm)
- 22.2
- 52-week range
- $229.20–$341.75
- Off 52-week high
- 18.0%
- RSI (14)
- 84
- Volume vs avg
- 1.97×
- Score today
- 5.6/10