McDonald's (MCD) Q2 2026 earnings — TrendMatrix coverage
Reported
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Full disclosure
Key numbers
- Adjusted EPS
- $3.38
- Estimate
- $3.32
- Surprise
- +1.8%
- Score at report (before → after)
- 6.1 → 6.0/10
Revenue for this quarter isn’t shown: the reported figure hasn’t cleared TrendMatrix’s freshness and sanity checks yet, and consensus revenue isn’t tracked. EPS above is the available figure.
How the report landed
McDonald's (MCD) beat the $3.32 estimate with adjusted EPS of $3.38 — a modest 1.8% upside surprise. TrendMatrix's engine moved from Buy (Wait) (6.1/10) to Hold at 6.0/10 after the report — the engine's score fell despite the beat.
Where TrendMatrix's rating stands now
TrendMatrix currently rates MCD Sell at 5.4/10.
3 of the last 4 quarters beat the estimate; this quarter's +1.8% surprise compares with a +0.9% four-quarter average. Next scheduled report: 2026-11-05.
What supports the rating
- V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.6 in RISK_OFF)
- Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
What argues against it
- Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5
- Weak growth
- Negative momentum
This section and the ones below it reflect TrendMatrix’s latest engine read — they update after the report date and are not frozen to it.
The levels TrendMatrix's engine tracks
- Current price
- $249.19
- Price target
- $287.81
- Stop
- $240.74
- Upside to target
- +15.5%
- Reward-to-risk
- 3.2:1
At 20.5× trailing and 17.8× forward earnings, consensus estimates imply little change in earnings power.
Model outputs from TrendMatrix’s engine as of 2026-09-18 — shown for context, not personalized investment advice.
MCD at TrendMatrix's latest read
Cyclical consumer names live and die on demand momentum — same-quarter comps and guidance carry more weight than the headline surprise.
- Industry
- Restaurants
- Market cap
- $175.89B
- P/E (fwd)
- 17.8
- P/E (ttm)
- 20.5
- 52-week range
- $247.83–$341.75
- Off 52-week high
- 27.1%
- RSI (14)
- 34
- Volume vs avg
- 1.10×
- Score today
- 5.4/10