Value
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.6 |
| P/S | 7.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.8 |
| PEG | 7.3 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.95
MBGL · Why this verdict
Why Mobility Global (MBGL) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Mobility Global is a high-quality, moderately undervalued software business with roughly 21% upside to its analyst target, but it just failed the engine's momentum gate and faces declining forward earnings estimates.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Mobility Global screens as a high-quality business, with a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9 and strong margins across the board. Quality breakdown | The Piotroski F-Score should hold at 8 or 9 out of 9 and the quality score should stay above 7.5. | →Stable |
| CounterA perfect fundamental score is a snapshot in time; software-infrastructure names can see margin compression quickly if competitive pricing pressure emerges. | ||
Consensus analyst targets imply roughly 21% upside from current levels, per both the bull case and the engine's v9 upside read. Bull case | The stock should close at least half of the 21% gap to the analyst target over the next 12 months without the target itself being cut. | →Stable |
| CounterEarnings estimates are trending down per the bear case, and if estimate cuts continue, analyst price targets typically follow, shrinking the very upside this pillar relies on. | ||
The stock failed the engine's momentum gate, with a momentum score of 4.1 versus the 4.5 threshold, alongside falling on-balance volume and a 2.3x volume surge on a selloff. Warnings | The momentum score should recover above the 4.5 gate threshold and on-balance volume should stop declining. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA volume surge on a selloff can mark capitulation that precedes a bottom, but it can just as easily mark the start of a larger distribution phase that keeps momentum below the gate for longer. | ||
Earnings estimates for the company are trending down, per the engine's bear case flag. Bear case | Forward earnings estimates should stabilize or turn back upward over the next 1-2 quarters. | ↑Improving |
| CounterDownward estimate revisions often continue in a self-reinforcing cycle for several quarters once they begin, especially in software where guidance resets can be multi-quarter events. | ||
Insider activity reads positively, with institutions reported as accumulating shares even though net insider share activity itself is flat at zero. Insider breakdown | Institutional accumulation should continue, and the insider signal should stay neutral-to-positive rather than turning bearish. | ↑Improving |
| CounterWith net insider shares at exactly zero and no dollar-value data reported, the positive-insider-activity read has limited underlying signal strength and could flip with a single reported transaction. | ||
Mobility Global screens as a high-quality business, with a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9 and strong margins across the board.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The Piotroski F-Score should hold at 8 or 9 out of 9 and the quality score should stay above 7.5.
CounterA perfect fundamental score is a snapshot in time; software-infrastructure names can see margin compression quickly if competitive pricing pressure emerges.
Consensus analyst targets imply roughly 21% upside from current levels, per both the bull case and the engine's v9 upside read.
→StableBull case
- Expectation
- The stock should close at least half of the 21% gap to the analyst target over the next 12 months without the target itself being cut.
CounterEarnings estimates are trending down per the bear case, and if estimate cuts continue, analyst price targets typically follow, shrinking the very upside this pillar relies on.
The stock failed the engine's momentum gate, with a momentum score of 4.1 versus the 4.5 threshold, alongside falling on-balance volume and a 2.3x volume surge on a selloff.
↑ImprovingWarnings
- Expectation
- The momentum score should recover above the 4.5 gate threshold and on-balance volume should stop declining.
CounterA volume surge on a selloff can mark capitulation that precedes a bottom, but it can just as easily mark the start of a larger distribution phase that keeps momentum below the gate for longer.
Earnings estimates for the company are trending down, per the engine's bear case flag.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Forward earnings estimates should stabilize or turn back upward over the next 1-2 quarters.
CounterDownward estimate revisions often continue in a self-reinforcing cycle for several quarters once they begin, especially in software where guidance resets can be multi-quarter events.
Insider activity reads positively, with institutions reported as accumulating shares even though net insider share activity itself is flat at zero.
↑ImprovingInsider breakdown
- Expectation
- Institutional accumulation should continue, and the insider signal should stay neutral-to-positive rather than turning bearish.
CounterWith net insider shares at exactly zero and no dollar-value data reported, the positive-insider-activity read has limited underlying signal strength and could flip with a single reported transaction.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.1/10data confidence 86%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 5.7 |
| Current ratio | 6.6 |
| Moat | 7.4 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
- ▸High-quality business
Growth
2.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.1 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
Momentum
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 6.3 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 3.5 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
Sentiment
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.7 |
| Price target | 8.3 |
| erm sentiment | 3.6 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (7.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 26%
Insider
7.5/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.5 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Insider buying (low materiality) — $980,566 (0.016% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.2 |
| quality rank | 6.1 |
| growth rank | 2.3 |
Technical
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.7 |
| support resistance | 5.4 |
| 52w position | 8.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| volatility | 0.7 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 5.3 |
| max pain risk | 5.0 |
| debt equity | 9.2 |
Catalyst
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 3.5 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 2.9 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:4.9>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:76d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:1.0<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
1.01
Upside
+9.5%
Downside
9.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:4.9>=4.5. Top dim: Quality at 8.1; weakest: Growth at 2.0. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 8.1, Insider at 7.5, and Risk (lower is worse) at 6.7; the weakest are Growth at 2.0, Peer rank at 4.5, and Catalyst at 4.6. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.01 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Quality Software Business
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 6 out of 9 from the current 9, or the quality score drops below 6.0 from 8.1.
- P2Meaningful Analyst Upside To Target
Trip ifUpside_pct falls below 5% from the current 21.4%, closing most of the gap to the analyst target.
- P3Momentum Gate Failure
Trip ifMomentum score rises above 5.5 from the current 4.1, clearing the engine's gate.
- P4Earnings Estimates Trending Down
Trip ifForward earnings estimates rise more than 5% for 2 consecutive quarters, reversing the current downward trend.
- P5Positive Insider Activity And Institutional Accumulation
Trip ifInstitutional holdings fall more than 5% for 2 consecutive quarters, reversing the current accumulation trend.