Value
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.9 |
| P/S | 8.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.1 |
| PEG | 7.9 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 11.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.84
MBGL · Why this verdict
Why Mobility Global (MBGL) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Mobility Global is a high-quality software infrastructure business (Piotroski 8 of 9, top margin scores) that looks attractively valued at an 11.3x forward P/E with 15.9% upside to the analyst target, but growth is weak and earnings estimates are trending down.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Growth is weak, with a growth score of 2.0, an earnings growth score of 0.0 and earnings estimates trending down. Bear case | Growth score recovers above 5.0 and estimates stabilize within 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe August quarter was in line with estimates (EPS $0.46), so estimate cuts may be limited and already priced in. | ||
The business is flagged as high quality, with a Piotroski F-Score of 8 of 9 and maximum 10.0 scores on gross and operating margin. Quality breakdown | Piotroski F-Score stays at 6 or higher and margins hold over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterQuality is strong, but the net margin score is only 5.7 and weak growth means quality may not compound into returns. | ||
The stock is attractively valued, with an 11.3x forward P/E and a PEG of 0.84. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E stays below about 15x as earnings are delivered over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe trailing P/E score is only 2.9, and falling earnings estimates could make the forward multiple look less cheap quickly. | ||
Insiders bought $980,566 (0.018% of market cap) in 3 purchases over 90 days with no sales, a small positive signal. Insider breakdown | Insider net buying stays positive with no open-market selling over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe amount is only 0.018% of market cap, so the engine rates materiality as low and the signal is weak. | ||
The put/call ratio is elevated at 1.71 and momentum of 4.5 only just clears the engine's 4.5 minimum, showing cautious positioning. Key risks | The put/call ratio drops back toward 1.0 as sentiment stabilizes. | ↑Improving |
| CounterRising on-balance volume shows accumulation, and elevated put activity may be hedging rather than directional bearishness. | ||
Growth is weak, with a growth score of 2.0, an earnings growth score of 0.0 and earnings estimates trending down.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Growth score recovers above 5.0 and estimates stabilize within 12 months.
CounterThe August quarter was in line with estimates (EPS $0.46), so estimate cuts may be limited and already priced in.
The business is flagged as high quality, with a Piotroski F-Score of 8 of 9 and maximum 10.0 scores on gross and operating margin.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski F-Score stays at 6 or higher and margins hold over the next 12 months.
CounterQuality is strong, but the net margin score is only 5.7 and weak growth means quality may not compound into returns.
The stock is attractively valued, with an 11.3x forward P/E and a PEG of 0.84.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E stays below about 15x as earnings are delivered over 12 months.
CounterThe trailing P/E score is only 2.9, and falling earnings estimates could make the forward multiple look less cheap quickly.
Insiders bought $980,566 (0.018% of market cap) in 3 purchases over 90 days with no sales, a small positive signal.
→StableInsider breakdown
- Expectation
- Insider net buying stays positive with no open-market selling over 12 months.
CounterThe amount is only 0.018% of market cap, so the engine rates materiality as low and the signal is weak.
The put/call ratio is elevated at 1.71 and momentum of 4.5 only just clears the engine's 4.5 minimum, showing cautious positioning.
↑ImprovingKey risks
- Expectation
- The put/call ratio drops back toward 1.0 as sentiment stabilizes.
CounterRising on-balance volume shows accumulation, and elevated put activity may be hedging rather than directional bearishness.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.1/10data confidence 86%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 5.7 |
| Current ratio | 6.6 |
| Moat | 7.4 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
- ▸High-quality business
Growth
2.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.1 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
Momentum
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.4 |
| MACD | 9.4 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 5.5 |
| Volume | 1.3 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
Sentiment
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.1 |
| Price target | 8.4 |
| erm sentiment | 3.3 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 27%
Insider
7.5/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.5 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Insider buying (low materiality) — $980,566 (0.018% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.6 |
| quality rank | 5.7 |
| growth rank | 2.4 |
Technical
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.4 |
| support resistance | 3.0 |
| 52w position | 6.6 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.6/10data confidence 60%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 9.1 |
| volatility | 4.6 |
| debt equity | 9.2 |
Catalyst
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 2.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 2.9 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.9>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:22d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:1.3<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
1.27
Upside
+10.8%
Downside
8.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.5 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Quality at 8.1) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:1.3<1.5@spot) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 1.27 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 8.1, Risk (lower is worse) at 7.6, and Insider at 7.5; the weakest are Growth at 2.0, Catalyst at 4.2, and Technical at 4.2. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.27 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Quality Business
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 6 of 9 from current 8 of 9.
- P2Attractive Software Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 18x from current 11.3x.
- P3Weak Growth Falling Estimates
Trip ifGrowth score rises above 5.0 from current 2.0.
- P4Small Insider Buying
Trip ifInsider net selling exceeds $1M in any 90-day window.
- P5Elevated Put Call Borderline Momentum
Trip ifPut/call ratio falls below 1.0 from current 1.71.