Value
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.7 |
| P/S | 8.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.9 |
| PEG | 7.5 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.91
MBGL · Why this verdict
Why Mobility Global (MBGL) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Mobility Global is a high-quality business (Piotroski 8/9) with insider buying, but at $19.64 it sits only 4.5% below the $20.52 analyst target with earnings due in 4 days, so reward-to-risk is just 0.44.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Forward P/E of 12.2x and PEG of 0.91 show the stock is reasonably priced for its growth. Valuation breakdown | PEG stays below 1.0 as revenue keeps growing from $439M to $468M year over year. | →Stable |
| CounterEarnings growth scores 0.0 and growth ranks near the bottom of peers, so the PEG may be flattered by estimates. | ||
Mobility Global is a high-quality business with a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 and top-scoring gross and operating margins. Quality breakdown | Piotroski F-Score stays at 7/9 or better and margins hold over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterQuality alone is priced in: the stock has only 4.5% upside to the analyst target and growth scores just 2.0/10. | ||
Insiders made 3 purchases totaling $980,566 in the last 90 days with no sells, signaling management confidence. Net value 90d | Insider activity stays net-buying and institutions keep accumulating. | →Stable |
| CounterThe purchases are small at 0.017% of market cap, so the signal has low materiality. | ||
At $19.64 the stock is 4.5% below the $20.52 analyst target against 10.1% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of 0.44. Upside pct | Upside to the analyst target stays below roughly 10% unless price pulls back or targets are raised. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst targets could be raised after earnings; sentiment data shows analyst upside of 20% before the haircut. | ||
Earnings land on 2026-11-12, 4 days out, with options pricing 76% implied volatility and a 1.71 put/call ratio, so near-term outcomes are skewed to event risk. Next earnings date | The report meets the $475M revenue estimate with EPS in line, after the last print came in at 0.72% above estimate. | →Stable |
| CounterHeavy put positioning may already reflect fear; an in-line or better print could squeeze the elevated put/call and lift the stock. | ||
Forward P/E of 12.2x and PEG of 0.91 show the stock is reasonably priced for its growth.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- PEG stays below 1.0 as revenue keeps growing from $439M to $468M year over year.
CounterEarnings growth scores 0.0 and growth ranks near the bottom of peers, so the PEG may be flattered by estimates.
Mobility Global is a high-quality business with a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 and top-scoring gross and operating margins.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski F-Score stays at 7/9 or better and margins hold over the next 12 months.
CounterQuality alone is priced in: the stock has only 4.5% upside to the analyst target and growth scores just 2.0/10.
Insiders made 3 purchases totaling $980,566 in the last 90 days with no sells, signaling management confidence.
→StableNet value 90d
- Expectation
- Insider activity stays net-buying and institutions keep accumulating.
CounterThe purchases are small at 0.017% of market cap, so the signal has low materiality.
At $19.64 the stock is 4.5% below the $20.52 analyst target against 10.1% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of 0.44.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- Upside to the analyst target stays below roughly 10% unless price pulls back or targets are raised.
CounterAnalyst targets could be raised after earnings; sentiment data shows analyst upside of 20% before the haircut.
Earnings land on 2026-11-12, 4 days out, with options pricing 76% implied volatility and a 1.71 put/call ratio, so near-term outcomes are skewed to event risk.
→StableNext earnings date
- Expectation
- The report meets the $475M revenue estimate with EPS in line, after the last print came in at 0.72% above estimate.
CounterHeavy put positioning may already reflect fear; an in-line or better print could squeeze the elevated put/call and lift the stock.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.1/10data confidence 86%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 5.7 |
| Current ratio | 6.6 |
| Moat | 7.4 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
- ▸High-quality business
Growth
2.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.1 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
Momentum
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 9.7 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 7.5 |
| Volume | 1.7 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
Sentiment
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 7.5 |
| erm sentiment | 4.6 |
Insider
7.5/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.5 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Insider buying (low materiality) — $980,566 (0.017% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.3 |
| quality rank | 6.0 |
| growth rank | 2.5 |
Technical
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.1 |
| support resistance | 1.3 |
| 52w position | 7.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 8.5 |
| volatility | 4.8 |
| put call | 1.9 |
| implied vol | 0.8 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| debt equity | 9.2 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.71
- ▸High IV: 75%
Catalyst
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 4.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 2.9 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
- ▸Earnings in 3 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.5>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:0.3<1.5@spot
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:3d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.30
Upside
+3.3%
Downside
11.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.3 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Quality at 8.1) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:0.3<1.5@spot, EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:3d<=7d) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.30 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 8.1, Insider at 7.5, and Value at 6.5; the weakest are Growth at 2.0, Technical at 3.4, and Peer rank at 4.6. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.30 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Quality Franchise
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 5/9 from current 8/9.
- P2Insider Buying Support
Trip ifNet insider selling exceeds $1M over a 90-day window.
- P3Thin Upside To Target
Trip ifAnalyst target rises above $24, pushing upside to the target above 20% from current 4.5%.
- P4Earnings Event Risk
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below -5% on the 2026-11-12 report.
- P5Reasonable Growth Adjusted Valuation
Trip ifPEG ratio exceeds 1.5 from current 0.91.