Value
8.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.7 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.8 |
| PEG | 4.8 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 6.2x
- ▸PEG: 1.70
- ▸Attractively valued
MAX · Why this verdict
Why MediaAlpha (MAX) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
MediaAlpha screens statistically cheap with a strong earnings beat record, but extreme insider selling and an overbought, late-cycle momentum reading argue for caution at current levels.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
MediaAlpha trades at a forward P/E of just 8.8x with a PEG ratio of 0.06, a statistically inexpensive setup relative to its growth trajectory. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E should stay low while earnings growth continues, or the multiple should expand toward peer levels. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe stock is trading near its analyst price target already, suggesting the market has priced in much of the near-term growth. | ||
Insiders have sold a net $4.8 million over the past 90 days, equal to 0.66% of market cap, triggering the engine's extreme insider-selling gate. Insider | Insider selling as a percentage of market cap should fall back toward more typical levels. | →Stable |
| CounterAs a small-cap name, modest absolute dollar sales can register as a large percentage of market cap without reflecting a strong negative signal. | ||
RSI has reached an extreme reading of 100 with a flat-to-negative moving-average slope, a combination the engine flags as late-cycle distribution risk. Momentum breakdown | RSI should cool back to a more moderate range without a sharp price decline. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterRising on-balance volume alongside the overbought reading suggests continued accumulation rather than distribution, which can support further upside. | ||
MediaAlpha has beaten EPS estimates in 3 of its last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of about 122.5%. Earnings | The beat streak should continue at the next earnings print. | →Stable |
| CounterSuch an outsized average surprise can be skewed by one exceptionally large beat, masking more modest performance in other periods. | ||
MediaAlpha trades at a forward P/E of just 8.8x with a PEG ratio of 0.06, a statistically inexpensive setup relative to its growth trajectory.
↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E should stay low while earnings growth continues, or the multiple should expand toward peer levels.
CounterThe stock is trading near its analyst price target already, suggesting the market has priced in much of the near-term growth.
Insiders have sold a net $4.8 million over the past 90 days, equal to 0.66% of market cap, triggering the engine's extreme insider-selling gate.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- Insider selling as a percentage of market cap should fall back toward more typical levels.
CounterAs a small-cap name, modest absolute dollar sales can register as a large percentage of market cap without reflecting a strong negative signal.
RSI has reached an extreme reading of 100 with a flat-to-negative moving-average slope, a combination the engine flags as late-cycle distribution risk.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI should cool back to a more moderate range without a sharp price decline.
CounterRising on-balance volume alongside the overbought reading suggests continued accumulation rather than distribution, which can support further upside.
MediaAlpha has beaten EPS estimates in 3 of its last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of about 122.5%.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat streak should continue at the next earnings print.
CounterSuch an outsized average surprise can be skewed by one exceptionally large beat, masking more modest performance in other periods.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 2.5 |
| Net margin | 4.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.9 |
| FCF quality | 2.0 |
| Moat | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 5.6 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 26% FCF/NI
Growth
5.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 9.0 |
| EPS growth | 2.7 |
- ▸Strong growth: 26% YoY
Momentum
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.2 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.0%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 3.5 |
| Analyst rating | 6.7 |
| Price target | 9.3 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (7.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 42%
Insider
3.0/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $8,002,681 (1.443% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.6 |
| quality rank | 4.8 |
| growth rank | 7.2 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.9 |
| support resistance | 3.5 |
| 52w position | 4.3 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.3 |
| days to cover | 6.9 |
| volatility | 1.1 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 4.8 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 6.4 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 3.33
- ▸Above max pain $8
Catalyst
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Earnings in 14 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (4)
- ASYMMETRY:1.7>=1.5
- 8K:CLEAN
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.6<4.5
- INSIDER:1.44%=EXTREME
Warning (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:14d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
1.66
Upside
+23.8%
Downside
14.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.6B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.6B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.1 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 8.0) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:3.6<4.5, INSIDER:1.44%=EXTREME) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 1.66 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.0, Peer rank at 6.7, and Sentiment at 6.4; the weakest are Insider at 3.0, Momentum at 3.6, and Risk (lower is worse) at 3.9. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.66 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Cheap Growth Adjusted Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 15x from the current 8.8x.
- P2Extreme Insider Selling
Trip ifInsider selling as a percentage of market cap falls below 0.3% from the current 0.66%.
- P3Overbought Late Cycle Momentum
Trip ifRSI falls below 50, reversing the current extreme reading of 100.
- P4Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% (a miss) at the next earnings print.