Value
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.8 |
| P/S | 9.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.5 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.05
- ▸Attractively valued
MAX · Why this verdict
Why MediaAlpha (MAX) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
MediaAlpha screens statistically cheap with a strong earnings beat record, but extreme insider selling and an overbought, late-cycle momentum reading argue for caution at current levels.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
MediaAlpha trades at a forward P/E of just 8.8x with a PEG ratio of 0.06, a statistically inexpensive setup relative to its growth trajectory. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E should stay low while earnings growth continues, or the multiple should expand toward peer levels. | Tripped↑Improving |
| CounterThe stock is trading near its analyst price target already, suggesting the market has priced in much of the near-term growth. | ||
Insiders have sold a net $4.8 million over the past 90 days, equal to 0.66% of market cap, triggering the engine's extreme insider-selling gate. Insider | Insider selling as a percentage of market cap should fall back toward more typical levels. | ↑Improving |
| CounterAs a small-cap name, modest absolute dollar sales can register as a large percentage of market cap without reflecting a strong negative signal. | ||
RSI has reached an extreme reading of 100 with a flat-to-negative moving-average slope, a combination the engine flags as late-cycle distribution risk. Momentum breakdown | RSI should cool back to a more moderate range without a sharp price decline. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterRising on-balance volume alongside the overbought reading suggests continued accumulation rather than distribution, which can support further upside. | ||
MediaAlpha has beaten EPS estimates in 3 of its last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of about 122.5%. Earnings | The beat streak should continue at the next earnings print. | →Stable |
| CounterSuch an outsized average surprise can be skewed by one exceptionally large beat, masking more modest performance in other periods. | ||
MediaAlpha trades at a forward P/E of just 8.8x with a PEG ratio of 0.06, a statistically inexpensive setup relative to its growth trajectory.
Tripped↑ImprovingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E should stay low while earnings growth continues, or the multiple should expand toward peer levels.
CounterThe stock is trading near its analyst price target already, suggesting the market has priced in much of the near-term growth.
Insiders have sold a net $4.8 million over the past 90 days, equal to 0.66% of market cap, triggering the engine's extreme insider-selling gate.
↑ImprovingInsider
- Expectation
- Insider selling as a percentage of market cap should fall back toward more typical levels.
CounterAs a small-cap name, modest absolute dollar sales can register as a large percentage of market cap without reflecting a strong negative signal.
RSI has reached an extreme reading of 100 with a flat-to-negative moving-average slope, a combination the engine flags as late-cycle distribution risk.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI should cool back to a more moderate range without a sharp price decline.
CounterRising on-balance volume alongside the overbought reading suggests continued accumulation rather than distribution, which can support further upside.
MediaAlpha has beaten EPS estimates in 3 of its last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of about 122.5%.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat streak should continue at the next earnings print.
CounterSuch an outsized average surprise can be skewed by one exceptionally large beat, masking more modest performance in other periods.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 2.9 |
| Net margin | 1.7 |
| Current ratio | 5.4 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 158% FCF/NI
Growth
8.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.8 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 1.9 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 2.2 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.6 |
| Price target | 5.6 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (6.0) — signal dampened
Insider
6.8/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.5 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Share-count fallback (no $ value): net -539,992.0 shares
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.3 |
| quality rank | 3.0 |
| growth rank | 7.1 |
Technical
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.8 |
| support resistance | 3.2 |
| 52w position | 8.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.3 |
| days to cover | 6.5 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 6.7 |
- ▸High IV: 89%
Catalyst
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Earnings in 6 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:5.7>=5.5
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.6=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d
Warning (1)
- INSIDER:0.00%=MODERATE
Reward-to-Risk
-0.64
Upside
-9.6%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 57 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.7B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.7B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:5.7>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 8.4; weakest: Risk (lower is worse) at 5.1. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.4, Value at 7.6, and Insider at 6.8; the weakest are Risk (lower is worse) at 5.1, Peer rank at 5.3, and Quality at 5.3. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.64 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Cheap Growth Adjusted ValuationTripped
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 15x from the current 8.8x.
- P2Extreme Insider Selling
Trip ifInsider selling as a percentage of market cap falls below 0.3% from the current 0.66%.
- P3Overbought Late Cycle Momentum
Trip ifRSI falls below 50, reversing the current extreme reading of 100.
- P4Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% (a miss) at the next earnings print.