Value
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 1.4 |
| P/S | 7.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.2 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 24.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.22
MAIR · Why this verdict
Why Madison Air Solutions Corporati (MAIR) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Madison Air Solutions is growing revenue at a 34% YoY clip and screens cheap on a growth-adjusted basis, but high leverage and weak near-term momentum argue for caution despite the strong growth engine.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Madison Air Solutions is growing revenue at 34% YoY, a pace the engine flags as a top growth profile within Industrials. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth should stay above 20% YoY over the next several quarters. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterHigh leverage raises the risk that growth is partly debt-funded and could slow sharply if financing conditions tighten. | ||
The company carries a debt-to-equity ratio of 5.6, high enough to trigger a leverage penalty in the engine's scoring. Bear case | Debt-to-equity should fall meaningfully for the leverage risk to ease. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA strong Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 suggests the underlying financial trend is improving even if the absolute leverage level remains high. | ||
Momentum has weakened to a reading of 2.5, well below the engine's 4.5 threshold, with on-balance volume also falling. Engine gate (failed) | Momentum score should recover above the engine's 4.5 threshold. | ↑Improving |
| CounterMomentum weakness following a period of strong growth can reflect normal digestion or consolidation rather than a change in the underlying trend. | ||
At a forward P/E of 29.8x, the stock is priced for continued strong execution, leaving limited room for error. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E should compress toward peer levels, or the growth rate should stay high enough to justify the current multiple. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA PEG ratio of 0.12 suggests that, relative to its growth rate, the stock is actually inexpensive despite the high absolute P/E. | ||
Madison Air Solutions is growing revenue at 34% YoY, a pace the engine flags as a top growth profile within Industrials.
↓DeterioratingGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should stay above 20% YoY over the next several quarters.
CounterHigh leverage raises the risk that growth is partly debt-funded and could slow sharply if financing conditions tighten.
The company carries a debt-to-equity ratio of 5.6, high enough to trigger a leverage penalty in the engine's scoring.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Debt-to-equity should fall meaningfully for the leverage risk to ease.
CounterA strong Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 suggests the underlying financial trend is improving even if the absolute leverage level remains high.
Momentum has weakened to a reading of 2.5, well below the engine's 4.5 threshold, with on-balance volume also falling.
↑ImprovingEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- Momentum score should recover above the engine's 4.5 threshold.
CounterMomentum weakness following a period of strong growth can reflect normal digestion or consolidation rather than a change in the underlying trend.
At a forward P/E of 29.8x, the stock is priced for continued strong execution, leaving limited room for error.
↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E should compress toward peer levels, or the growth rate should stay high enough to justify the current multiple.
CounterA PEG ratio of 0.12 suggests that, relative to its growth rate, the stock is actually inexpensive despite the high absolute P/E.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.8/10data confidence 86%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 3.8 |
| Op margin | 7.9 |
| Net margin | 1.9 |
| Current ratio | 6.5 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
8.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.7 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 21% YoY
Momentum
2.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 3.2 |
| OBV | 4.4 |
| MA position | 2.5 |
| Volume | 0.1 |
Sentiment
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.0 |
| Price target | 8.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (10.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 35%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.7 |
| quality rank | 2.8 |
| growth rank | 8.0 |
Technical
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.1 |
| support resistance | 6.1 |
| 52w position | 4.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.5 |
| days to cover | 7.8 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 9.1 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| debt equity | 5.8 |
- ▸High IV: 92%
- ▸Above max pain $20
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:93d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.7<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.3<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
1.34
Upside
+17.8%
Downside
13.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Growth at 8.8; weakest: Momentum at 2.7. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.8, Catalyst at 7.5, and Insider at 7.3; the weakest are Momentum at 2.7, Peer rank at 4.2, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.7. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.34 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 15% YoY, reversing the current 34% pace.
- P2High Leverage Penalty
Trip ifDebt-to-equity falls below 3.0, easing from the current 5.6.
- P3Momentum Breakdown
Trip ifMomentum score rises above 4.5, recovering from the current 2.5 reading.
- P4Valuation Stretch
Trip ifForward P/E falls below 20x from the current 29.8x.