Value
7.6/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.8 |
| P/S | 7.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.05
- ▸Attractively valued
LOB · Why this verdict
Why Live Oak Bancshares (LOB) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
At a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 9.3 times and a price-to-earnings-to-growth ratio of 0.05, the stock screens as deeply discounted relative to its growth rate — offering potential value if the growth trajectory holds. Valuation breakdown | Forward earnings estimates hold or rise, keeping the PEG below 0.2 over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterTwo of the four most recent quarterly results missed consensus estimates, which may prompt analysts to trim forward numbers; downward revisions would inflate the effective forward multiple and erode the apparent cheapness. | ||
The quality assessment identifies no competitive moat, which means sustaining above-average returns through a credit cycle is less certain — strong growth today may not compound as reliably without durable pricing power or switching costs. Quality breakdown | Return on equity sustains above 12% for 4 consecutive quarters, demonstrating that the business model generates durable returns even without a formally rated moat. | →Stable |
| CounterNet margins of 25% and a Piotroski financial health score of 8 out of 9 suggest the business is financially sound; if the bank's niche lending model continues to expand, structural advantages may not be necessary to sustain above-average returns in the near term. | ||
Revenue is expanding at 34% year over year, a rate that places this bank at the top of its regional peer group on growth metrics and suggests the business is gaining meaningful share. Growth breakdown | Year-over-year revenue growth stays above 20% for each of the next 2 reported quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterFalling on-balance volume indicates net selling pressure has accompanied the stock's rise, suggesting institutional investors may not be fully convinced the 34% growth rate is durable through a full credit cycle. | ||
Two consecutive quarterly results — the second and third most recent quarters — missed analyst consensus, reflecting a pattern of inconsistent delivery that raises questions about the reliability of management guidance. Earnings | EPS surprise exceeds 5% for each of the next 2 consecutive reported quarters, demonstrating a return to positive delivery. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recent quarter produced a 9.85% positive surprise, suggesting the miss streak may already be breaking; if that beat signals a genuine turn in execution quality, the prior two misses may prove transitory. | ||
At a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 9.3 times and a price-to-earnings-to-growth ratio of 0.05, the stock screens as deeply discounted relative to its growth rate — offering potential value if the growth trajectory holds.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward earnings estimates hold or rise, keeping the PEG below 0.2 over the next 12 months.
CounterTwo of the four most recent quarterly results missed consensus estimates, which may prompt analysts to trim forward numbers; downward revisions would inflate the effective forward multiple and erode the apparent cheapness.
The quality assessment identifies no competitive moat, which means sustaining above-average returns through a credit cycle is less certain — strong growth today may not compound as reliably without durable pricing power or switching costs.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Return on equity sustains above 12% for 4 consecutive quarters, demonstrating that the business model generates durable returns even without a formally rated moat.
CounterNet margins of 25% and a Piotroski financial health score of 8 out of 9 suggest the business is financially sound; if the bank's niche lending model continues to expand, structural advantages may not be necessary to sustain above-average returns in the near term.
Revenue is expanding at 34% year over year, a rate that places this bank at the top of its regional peer group on growth metrics and suggests the business is gaining meaningful share.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Year-over-year revenue growth stays above 20% for each of the next 2 reported quarters.
CounterFalling on-balance volume indicates net selling pressure has accompanied the stock's rise, suggesting institutional investors may not be fully convinced the 34% growth rate is durable through a full credit cycle.
Two consecutive quarterly results — the second and third most recent quarters — missed analyst consensus, reflecting a pattern of inconsistent delivery that raises questions about the reliability of management guidance.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS surprise exceeds 5% for each of the next 2 consecutive reported quarters, demonstrating a return to positive delivery.
CounterThe most recent quarter produced a 9.85% positive surprise, suggesting the miss streak may already be breaking; if that beat signals a genuine turn in execution quality, the prior two misses may prove transitory.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
This regional bank offers a deeply discounted valuation at a forward P/E of 9.3 times with a PEG of 0.05 and 34% revenue growth that leads its peer group, but two of the four most recent quarters missed consensus and the risk/reward at the current price is unfavorable — arguing for patience until execution consistency is demonstrated.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.6 |
| ROA | 0.6 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 25%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 34% YoY
Momentum
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 1.2 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.3 |
| Price target | 5.6 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (4.0) — signal dampened
Insider
3.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $6,890,188 (0.363% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.2 |
| quality rank | 3.7 |
| growth rank | 8.3 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.0 |
| support resistance | 2.1 |
| 52w position | 9.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.5 |
| days to cover | 1.3 |
| volatility | 6.2 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 1.6 |
| beta | 3.7 |
- ▸High IV: 71%
Catalyst
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 2.1 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Dividend: 29.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier -1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1Passed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.2>=4.5
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:19d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.1=NEGATIVE
- INSIDER:0.36%=HEAVY
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.2<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.06
Upside
-11.5%
Downside
10.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 66, MACD bullish
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.9B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.88>1.3, MCap $1.9B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:5.2>=4.5. Top dim: Growth at 10.0; weakest: Insider at 3.3. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 7.6, and Sentiment at 5.7; the weakest are Insider at 3.3, Catalyst at 4.1, and Technical at 4.4. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.06 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Deeply Discounted Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E expands above 15x due to downward earnings estimate revisions.
- P2Industry Leading Revenue Growth
Trip ifYear-over-year revenue growth falls below 15% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Earnings Delivery Inconsistency
Trip ifEPS surprise exceeds 5% for each of the next 2 consecutive reported quarters.
- P4Absent Competitive Moat
Trip ifReturn on equity rises above 12% for 4 consecutive quarters.