Value
7.8/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.7 |
| P/S | 7.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.1x
- ▸PEG: 0.05
- ▸Attractively valued
LOB · Why this verdict
Why Live Oak Bancshares (LOB) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
This regional bank offers a deeply discounted valuation at a forward P/E of 9.3 times with a PEG of 0.05 and 34% revenue growth that leads its peer group, but two of the four most recent quarters missed consensus and the risk/reward at the current price is unfavorable — arguing for patience until execution consistency is demonstrated.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
At a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 9.3 times and a price-to-earnings-to-growth ratio of 0.05, the stock screens as deeply discounted relative to its growth rate — offering potential value if the growth trajectory holds. Valuation breakdown | Forward earnings estimates hold or rise, keeping the PEG below 0.2 over the next 12 months. | Tripped↑Improving |
| CounterTwo of the four most recent quarterly results missed consensus estimates, which may prompt analysts to trim forward numbers; downward revisions would inflate the effective forward multiple and erode the apparent cheapness. | ||
The quality assessment identifies no competitive moat, which means sustaining above-average returns through a credit cycle is less certain — strong growth today may not compound as reliably without durable pricing power or switching costs. Quality breakdown | Return on equity sustains above 12% for 4 consecutive quarters, demonstrating that the business model generates durable returns even without a formally rated moat. | →Stable |
| CounterNet margins of 25% and a Piotroski financial health score of 8 out of 9 suggest the business is financially sound; if the bank's niche lending model continues to expand, structural advantages may not be necessary to sustain above-average returns in the near term. | ||
Revenue is expanding at 34% year over year, a rate that places this bank at the top of its regional peer group on growth metrics and suggests the business is gaining meaningful share. Growth breakdown | Year-over-year revenue growth stays above 20% for each of the next 2 reported quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterFalling on-balance volume indicates net selling pressure has accompanied the stock's rise, suggesting institutional investors may not be fully convinced the 34% growth rate is durable through a full credit cycle. | ||
Two consecutive quarterly results — the second and third most recent quarters — missed analyst consensus, reflecting a pattern of inconsistent delivery that raises questions about the reliability of management guidance. Earnings | EPS surprise exceeds 5% for each of the next 2 consecutive reported quarters, demonstrating a return to positive delivery. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recent quarter produced a 9.85% positive surprise, suggesting the miss streak may already be breaking; if that beat signals a genuine turn in execution quality, the prior two misses may prove transitory. | ||
At a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 9.3 times and a price-to-earnings-to-growth ratio of 0.05, the stock screens as deeply discounted relative to its growth rate — offering potential value if the growth trajectory holds.
Tripped↑ImprovingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward earnings estimates hold or rise, keeping the PEG below 0.2 over the next 12 months.
CounterTwo of the four most recent quarterly results missed consensus estimates, which may prompt analysts to trim forward numbers; downward revisions would inflate the effective forward multiple and erode the apparent cheapness.
The quality assessment identifies no competitive moat, which means sustaining above-average returns through a credit cycle is less certain — strong growth today may not compound as reliably without durable pricing power or switching costs.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Return on equity sustains above 12% for 4 consecutive quarters, demonstrating that the business model generates durable returns even without a formally rated moat.
CounterNet margins of 25% and a Piotroski financial health score of 8 out of 9 suggest the business is financially sound; if the bank's niche lending model continues to expand, structural advantages may not be necessary to sustain above-average returns in the near term.
Revenue is expanding at 34% year over year, a rate that places this bank at the top of its regional peer group on growth metrics and suggests the business is gaining meaningful share.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Year-over-year revenue growth stays above 20% for each of the next 2 reported quarters.
CounterFalling on-balance volume indicates net selling pressure has accompanied the stock's rise, suggesting institutional investors may not be fully convinced the 34% growth rate is durable through a full credit cycle.
Two consecutive quarterly results — the second and third most recent quarters — missed analyst consensus, reflecting a pattern of inconsistent delivery that raises questions about the reliability of management guidance.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS surprise exceeds 5% for each of the next 2 consecutive reported quarters, demonstrating a return to positive delivery.
CounterThe most recent quarter produced a 9.85% positive surprise, suggesting the miss streak may already be breaking; if that beat signals a genuine turn in execution quality, the prior two misses may prove transitory.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.6 |
| ROA | 0.6 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 25%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 34% YoY
Momentum
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 2.7 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 1.3 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.5 |
| Analyst rating | 6.3 |
| Price target | 5.9 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (4.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 9.7 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $7,239,694 (0.376% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.1 |
| quality rank | 3.7 |
| growth rank | 8.2 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.2 |
| support resistance | 3.9 |
| 52w position | 9.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.8 |
| days to cover | 4.7 |
| volatility | 5.9 |
| beta | 3.7 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 2.1 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Earnings in 1 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Earnings in 1 day. Wait until post-earnings.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L3:NEWS_BLOCK|ENTRY_STICKY:PRIOR_STILL_VIABLEPassed (3)
- MOMENTUM:5.7>=5.5
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.2=NEGATIVE
- INSIDER:0.38%=HEAVY
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:1d<=7d
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.20
Upside
-9.7%
Downside
8.1%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupRange Bound — RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.9B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.88>1.3, MCap $1.9B<$5B
Investment implication
A recent news event triggered an L3 news-block on the verdict path. Trigger: Earnings in 1 day. Wait until post-earnings. The 10-dimension scores remain Growth at 10.0 (strongest), but ASYMMETRY:-1.2=NEGATIVE also fails — the news block is the proximate trigger, not the sole driver.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 7.8, and Sentiment at 6.3; the weakest are Catalyst at 4.3, Peer rank at 5.2, and Risk (lower is worse) at 5.4. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.20 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Deeply Discounted ValuationTripped
Trip ifForward P/E expands above 15x due to downward earnings estimate revisions.
- P2Industry Leading Revenue Growth
Trip ifYear-over-year revenue growth falls below 15% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Earnings Delivery Inconsistency
Trip ifEPS surprise exceeds 5% for each of the next 2 consecutive reported quarters.
- P4Absent Competitive Moat
Trip ifReturn on equity rises above 12% for 4 consecutive quarters.