Value
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 0.0 |
| P/S | 0.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 2.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 51.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.42
LOAR · Why this verdict
Why Loar Holdings (LOAR) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Four consecutive quarterly results beat analyst consensus by a wide margin, with the average upside surprise exceeding 58 percentage points — a cadence consistent with a company that has been consistently under-promising and over-delivering. Catalyst track record | EPS beats analyst consensus in each of the next 2 reported quarters, sustaining the 4-quarter pattern. | →Stable |
| CounterA four-quarter beat streak at this magnitude often reflects conservatively set analyst estimates rather than sustained operational execution; if the bar rises to match recent performance, the cadence of outperformance may narrow materially. | ||
Short interest at 16% of float and implied volatility near 84% create a risk environment where adverse moves can be amplified, while only 5.6% of upside to the price target leaves limited margin to be right on the long side. Risk breakdown | Short interest falls below 8% of float and upside to the price target widens to at least 15%. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh short interest can act as fuel for a squeeze rally if the company continues its beat-and-raise cadence, converting a perceived risk factor into a near-term price catalyst. | ||
Revenue is expanding at 36% year over year, placing the company among the top growth names in its peer group, with earnings growth similarly elevated — a pace that justifies a premium multiple if it proves durable. Growth breakdown | Year-over-year revenue growth stays above 20% for at least 2 consecutive quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterAt a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 43.5 times, the stock fully prices in continued high growth; any deceleration from the current 36% pace could trigger multiple compression that more than offsets fundamental progress. | ||
The stock is trading below its 200-day moving average with that average declining at roughly 2% over the past 30 days — a confirmed downtrend that adds near-term price risk on top of already thin upside to the price target. Momentum breakdown | Price reclaims and holds above the 200-day moving average for at least 10 consecutive trading days, signaling a trend reversal. | →Stable |
| CounterThe MACD has turned upward and RSI is recovering toward 64, suggesting internal momentum may be improving even as price lags the long-term average; continued buying volume could resolve the technical overhang faster than expected. | ||
Four consecutive quarterly results beat analyst consensus by a wide margin, with the average upside surprise exceeding 58 percentage points — a cadence consistent with a company that has been consistently under-promising and over-delivering.
→StableCatalyst track record
- Expectation
- EPS beats analyst consensus in each of the next 2 reported quarters, sustaining the 4-quarter pattern.
CounterA four-quarter beat streak at this magnitude often reflects conservatively set analyst estimates rather than sustained operational execution; if the bar rises to match recent performance, the cadence of outperformance may narrow materially.
Short interest at 16% of float and implied volatility near 84% create a risk environment where adverse moves can be amplified, while only 5.6% of upside to the price target leaves limited margin to be right on the long side.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Short interest falls below 8% of float and upside to the price target widens to at least 15%.
CounterHigh short interest can act as fuel for a squeeze rally if the company continues its beat-and-raise cadence, converting a perceived risk factor into a near-term price catalyst.
Revenue is expanding at 36% year over year, placing the company among the top growth names in its peer group, with earnings growth similarly elevated — a pace that justifies a premium multiple if it proves durable.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Year-over-year revenue growth stays above 20% for at least 2 consecutive quarters.
CounterAt a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 43.5 times, the stock fully prices in continued high growth; any deceleration from the current 36% pace could trigger multiple compression that more than offsets fundamental progress.
The stock is trading below its 200-day moving average with that average declining at roughly 2% over the past 30 days — a confirmed downtrend that adds near-term price risk on top of already thin upside to the price target.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price reclaims and holds above the 200-day moving average for at least 10 consecutive trading days, signaling a trend reversal.
CounterThe MACD has turned upward and RSI is recovering toward 64, suggesting internal momentum may be improving even as price lags the long-term average; continued buying volume could resolve the technical overhang faster than expected.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
This aerospace and defense company has delivered four straight quarters of meaningful earnings beats on top of 36% revenue growth, but the stock is trading in a confirmed downtrend below its 200-day moving average with 16% short interest and only 5.6% upside to the price target — a combination that makes the current risk/reward unattractive.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.0 |
| ROA | 3.0 |
| Gross margin | 6.7 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 6.3 |
| Current ratio | 8.4 |
| FCF quality | 7.4 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 36% YoY
Momentum
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.8 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 7.5 |
| Volume | 1.5 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 84)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat/negative + RSI 84 (late-cycle distribution risk)
Sentiment
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.3 |
| Price target | 6.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.2 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (5.0) — signal dampened
Insider
4.8/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| holder change | 5.2 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $2,120,650 (0.028% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.1 |
| quality rank | 5.8 |
| growth rank | 7.7 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.2 |
| support resistance | 0.7 |
| 52w position | 7.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 2.5 |
| days to cover | 0.0 |
| volatility | 3.3 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 4.7 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 6.1 |
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.6>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:38d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.5=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=6.6>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
-0.46
Upside
-6.9%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 84
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:6.6>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 10.0; weakest: Technical at 3.2. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Catalyst at 7.5, and Quality at 6.6; the weakest are Technical at 3.2, Value at 3.3, and Peer rank at 3.6. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.46 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Strong Revenue Earnings Growth
Trip ifYear-over-year revenue growth falls below 20% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Confirmed Technical Downtrend
Trip ifPrice reclaims the 200-day moving average and holds above it for 10 consecutive trading days.
- P4Elevated Risk Thin Asymmetry
Trip ifShort interest falls below 8% of float.