Value
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 0.0 |
| P/S | 0.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 2.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 51.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.42
LOAR · Why this verdict
Why Loar Holdings (LOAR) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Four consecutive quarterly results beat analyst consensus by a wide margin, with the average upside surprise exceeding 58 percentage points — a cadence consistent with a company that has been consistently under-promising and over-delivering. Catalyst track record | EPS beats analyst consensus in each of the next 2 reported quarters, sustaining the 4-quarter pattern. | →Stable |
| CounterA four-quarter beat streak at this magnitude often reflects conservatively set analyst estimates rather than sustained operational execution; if the bar rises to match recent performance, the cadence of outperformance may narrow materially. | ||
Short interest at 16% of float and implied volatility near 84% create a risk environment where adverse moves can be amplified, while only 5.6% of upside to the price target leaves limited margin to be right on the long side. Risk breakdown | Short interest falls below 8% of float and upside to the price target widens to at least 15%. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh short interest can act as fuel for a squeeze rally if the company continues its beat-and-raise cadence, converting a perceived risk factor into a near-term price catalyst. | ||
Revenue is expanding at 36% year over year, placing the company among the top growth names in its peer group, with earnings growth similarly elevated — a pace that justifies a premium multiple if it proves durable. Growth breakdown | Year-over-year revenue growth stays above 20% for at least 2 consecutive quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterAt a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 43.5 times, the stock fully prices in continued high growth; any deceleration from the current 36% pace could trigger multiple compression that more than offsets fundamental progress. | ||
The stock is trading below its 200-day moving average with that average declining at roughly 2% over the past 30 days — a confirmed downtrend that adds near-term price risk on top of already thin upside to the price target. Momentum breakdown | Price reclaims and holds above the 200-day moving average for at least 10 consecutive trading days, signaling a trend reversal. | →Stable |
| CounterThe MACD has turned upward and RSI is recovering toward 64, suggesting internal momentum may be improving even as price lags the long-term average; continued buying volume could resolve the technical overhang faster than expected. | ||
Four consecutive quarterly results beat analyst consensus by a wide margin, with the average upside surprise exceeding 58 percentage points — a cadence consistent with a company that has been consistently under-promising and over-delivering.
→StableCatalyst track record
- Expectation
- EPS beats analyst consensus in each of the next 2 reported quarters, sustaining the 4-quarter pattern.
CounterA four-quarter beat streak at this magnitude often reflects conservatively set analyst estimates rather than sustained operational execution; if the bar rises to match recent performance, the cadence of outperformance may narrow materially.
Short interest at 16% of float and implied volatility near 84% create a risk environment where adverse moves can be amplified, while only 5.6% of upside to the price target leaves limited margin to be right on the long side.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Short interest falls below 8% of float and upside to the price target widens to at least 15%.
CounterHigh short interest can act as fuel for a squeeze rally if the company continues its beat-and-raise cadence, converting a perceived risk factor into a near-term price catalyst.
Revenue is expanding at 36% year over year, placing the company among the top growth names in its peer group, with earnings growth similarly elevated — a pace that justifies a premium multiple if it proves durable.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Year-over-year revenue growth stays above 20% for at least 2 consecutive quarters.
CounterAt a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 43.5 times, the stock fully prices in continued high growth; any deceleration from the current 36% pace could trigger multiple compression that more than offsets fundamental progress.
The stock is trading below its 200-day moving average with that average declining at roughly 2% over the past 30 days — a confirmed downtrend that adds near-term price risk on top of already thin upside to the price target.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price reclaims and holds above the 200-day moving average for at least 10 consecutive trading days, signaling a trend reversal.
CounterThe MACD has turned upward and RSI is recovering toward 64, suggesting internal momentum may be improving even as price lags the long-term average; continued buying volume could resolve the technical overhang faster than expected.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
This aerospace and defense company has delivered four straight quarters of meaningful earnings beats on top of 36% revenue growth, but the stock is trading in a confirmed downtrend below its 200-day moving average with 16% short interest and only 5.6% upside to the price target — a combination that makes the current risk/reward unattractive.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.0 |
| ROA | 3.0 |
| Gross margin | 6.7 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 6.3 |
| Current ratio | 8.4 |
| FCF quality | 7.4 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 36% YoY
Momentum
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.6 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 7.5 |
| Volume | 0.9 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 89)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat/negative + RSI 89 (late-cycle distribution risk)
Sentiment
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.3 |
| Price target | 6.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (5.0) — signal dampened
Insider
4.8/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| holder change | 5.2 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $2,120,650 (0.028% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.1 |
| quality rank | 5.8 |
| growth rank | 7.7 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.5 |
| support resistance | 0.6 |
| 52w position | 7.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 2.5 |
| days to cover | 0.0 |
| volatility | 3.4 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 3.9 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 6.1 |
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.4>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:38d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.5=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=6.4>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
-0.49
Upside
-7.3%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 89
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:6.4>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 10.0; weakest: Technical at 3.3. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Catalyst at 7.5, and Quality at 6.6; the weakest are Technical at 3.3, Value at 3.3, and Peer rank at 3.6. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.49 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Strong Revenue Earnings Growth
Trip ifYear-over-year revenue growth falls below 20% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Confirmed Technical Downtrend
Trip ifPrice reclaims the 200-day moving average and holds above it for 10 consecutive trading days.
- P4Elevated Risk Thin Asymmetry
Trip ifShort interest falls below 8% of float.