Value
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.8 |
| P/S | 7.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 17.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.22
LNTH · Why this verdict
Why Lantheus Holdings (LNTH) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Free cash flow conversion stands at 151% of net income, the business earns strong 18% margins, and the Piotroski financial health score is a perfect 9 out of 9 — hallmarks of a franchise that reliably turns reported earnings into real cash. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow conversion remains above 100% of net income and operating margins hold above 15% over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterSole-supplier dependence on synthesis boxes and a proprietary lipid blend creates single-point-of-failure risk; a disruption to either relationship could impair production and compress the very margins that underpin this quality assessment. | ||
The stock trades at a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 16.4 times with a price-to-earnings-to-growth ratio of 0.21, suggesting the market is not fully pricing in the earnings growth trajectory relative to peers. Valuation breakdown | Forward earnings estimates hold or rise, keeping the PEG below 0.5 over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock has already moved above its near-term price target, suggesting the market may have already reflected medium-term growth expectations; any deceleration in earnings could quickly eliminate the apparent valuation cushion. | ||
The two most recent quarters each beat analyst consensus — the latest by roughly 19% and the one before by nearly 43% — suggesting the company has been delivering ahead of expectations in its most recent earnings cycle. Earnings | EPS beats analyst consensus in each of the next two reported quarters, extending the recent outperformance pattern. | →Stable |
| CounterBefore these two beats, the company delivered one in-line result and, prior to that, a miss — a four-quarter history that is too mixed to characterize as a durable pattern of guidance discipline. | ||
Reliance on sole suppliers for both synthesis boxes and the proprietary lipid blend exposes the business to concentrated supply-chain risk that could disrupt production or elevate costs if either relationship is impaired. Bear case | The company discloses a second qualified supplier for at least one of the sole-sourced inputs within 12 months, reducing single-supplier exposure. | →Stable |
| CounterLong-standing sole-supplier relationships may reflect proprietary technology lock-in that competitors cannot easily replicate, creating a form of exclusive supply access that functions as a barrier to entry rather than pure vulnerability. | ||
Free cash flow conversion stands at 151% of net income, the business earns strong 18% margins, and the Piotroski financial health score is a perfect 9 out of 9 — hallmarks of a franchise that reliably turns reported earnings into real cash.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow conversion remains above 100% of net income and operating margins hold above 15% over the next 12 months.
CounterSole-supplier dependence on synthesis boxes and a proprietary lipid blend creates single-point-of-failure risk; a disruption to either relationship could impair production and compress the very margins that underpin this quality assessment.
The stock trades at a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 16.4 times with a price-to-earnings-to-growth ratio of 0.21, suggesting the market is not fully pricing in the earnings growth trajectory relative to peers.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward earnings estimates hold or rise, keeping the PEG below 0.5 over the next 12 months.
CounterThe stock has already moved above its near-term price target, suggesting the market may have already reflected medium-term growth expectations; any deceleration in earnings could quickly eliminate the apparent valuation cushion.
The two most recent quarters each beat analyst consensus — the latest by roughly 19% and the one before by nearly 43% — suggesting the company has been delivering ahead of expectations in its most recent earnings cycle.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS beats analyst consensus in each of the next two reported quarters, extending the recent outperformance pattern.
CounterBefore these two beats, the company delivered one in-line result and, prior to that, a miss — a four-quarter history that is too mixed to characterize as a durable pattern of guidance discipline.
Reliance on sole suppliers for both synthesis boxes and the proprietary lipid blend exposes the business to concentrated supply-chain risk that could disrupt production or elevate costs if either relationship is impaired.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- The company discloses a second qualified supplier for at least one of the sole-sourced inputs within 12 months, reducing single-supplier exposure.
CounterLong-standing sole-supplier relationships may reflect proprietary technology lock-in that competitors cannot easily replicate, creating a form of exclusive supply access that functions as a barrier to entry rather than pure vulnerability.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Lantheus Holdings operates a high-quality specialty healthcare franchise with exceptional free cash flow conversion and a perfect financial health score, but the stock has moved above its near-term price target, leaving the risk/reward firmly negative at the current price.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 7.8 |
| ROA | 5.4 |
| Gross margin | 8.1 |
| Op margin | 8.7 |
| Net margin | 9.0 |
| Current ratio | 9.5 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 7.1 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong margins: 18%
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 151% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
- ▸High-quality business
Growth
6.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.8 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 7.7 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.1 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.1 |
| Analyst rating | 8.5 |
| Price target | 4.4 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.8 |
| quality rank | 8.3 |
| growth rank | 3.3 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.7 |
| support resistance | 1.4 |
| 52w position | 9.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 3.8 |
| days to cover | 4.6 |
| volatility | 5.4 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 4.7 |
| debt equity | 7.9 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 2 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 9.5 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:4.6>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:33d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.5=NEGATIVE
- NEWS_SOFT:FDA_NEGATIVE
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.6<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.54
Upside
-16.7%
Downside
10.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 67, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:4.6>=4.5. Top dim: Quality at 8.4; weakest: Peer rank at 3.6. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 8.4, Catalyst at 6.6, and Growth at 6.4; the weakest are Peer rank at 3.6, Technical at 4.2, and Momentum at 4.6. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.54 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Exceptional Cash Generation Quality
Trip ifFree cash flow conversion falls below 80% of net income for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Consecutive Earnings Outperformance
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Attractive Growth Adjusted Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E expands above 25x without a corresponding increase in earnings estimates.
- P4Supplier Concentration Structural Risk
Trip ifManagement discloses a supply disruption from either sole supplier affecting more than 30 days of production.