Value
6.6/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.8 |
| P/S | 9.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.8 |
| PEG | 6.9 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 18.7x
- ▸PEG: 1.01
LNN · Why this verdict
Why Lindsay (LNN) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Revenue declining 16% year-over-year, a confirmed technical downtrend with the 200-day moving average falling at 3.1% per month, a death cross hard block, two earnings misses in the last four quarters including a near-32% miss in the most recent period, and a share price sitting essentially at resistance with just 0.1% upside collectively create an unfavorable risk/reward setup that warrants patience rather than exposure.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue has declined 16% year-over-year, contracting the top line and eroding the earnings base that underpins near-term analyst estimates; the growth component sits at the floor of the scoring range, reflecting no near-term reversal signal in the available data. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth returns to positive territory and exceeds 5% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters, signaling the contraction cycle has reversed. | ↑Improving |
| CounterDespite the revenue decline, the Piotroski financial health score registers 7 out of 9, suggesting the balance sheet and cash flow remain competently managed through the downturn; if the decline is cyclical and peaks in the current period, earnings could stabilize even before revenue fully recovers. | ||
The stock is below its 200-day moving average with the moving average itself falling at 3.1% per month — a configuration the data explicitly characterizes as a confirmed downtrend — and a death cross represents a hard technical block on entry at current levels. Momentum breakdown | The 200-day moving average slope turns positive and price closes above the average for 10 consecutive trading days, reversing the confirmed downtrend signal. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterMACD is improving and RSI sits at 63, indicating short-term momentum is recovering within the broader downtrend; if the shorter-term indicators continue to improve, the stock may build a base for a moving average reclaim before the downtrend fully plays out. | ||
The most recent reported quarter missed consensus by approximately 32%, and 2 of the last 4 quarters have missed estimates with an average surprise running at roughly negative 3%; this inconsistency limits confidence in the forward earnings estimates that underpin current valuation. Earnings | EPS surprise exceeds 5% for 2 consecutive quarters, establishing a consistent delivery pattern and reducing uncertainty around forward estimates. | →Stable |
| CounterThe two quarters that beat estimates did so by 4% and 27% respectively, suggesting the company is capable of meaningful positive surprises when conditions align; if the upcoming quarter — with earnings in roughly 9 days — delivers a beat, sentiment could shift quickly given the stock's low starting multiple. | ||
The current price of $114.80 sits just below the near-term resistance target of $114.94, leaving approximately 0.1% headroom and a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.02-to-1; the setup offers no meaningful reward for the downside risk present at this level. Price targets | A price decline of 10% or more creates upside to the near-term resistance target of at least 11% and restores a reward-to-risk profile above 1.5-to-1. | Tripped↑Improving |
| CounterA near-term positive earnings surprise — with results due in roughly 9 days — could lift the stock above resistance and establish a new higher base, making the current near-resistance positioning a near-term inflection rather than a ceiling. | ||
Revenue has declined 16% year-over-year, contracting the top line and eroding the earnings base that underpins near-term analyst estimates; the growth component sits at the floor of the scoring range, reflecting no near-term reversal signal in the available data.
↑ImprovingGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth returns to positive territory and exceeds 5% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters, signaling the contraction cycle has reversed.
CounterDespite the revenue decline, the Piotroski financial health score registers 7 out of 9, suggesting the balance sheet and cash flow remain competently managed through the downturn; if the decline is cyclical and peaks in the current period, earnings could stabilize even before revenue fully recovers.
The stock is below its 200-day moving average with the moving average itself falling at 3.1% per month — a configuration the data explicitly characterizes as a confirmed downtrend — and a death cross represents a hard technical block on entry at current levels.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The 200-day moving average slope turns positive and price closes above the average for 10 consecutive trading days, reversing the confirmed downtrend signal.
CounterMACD is improving and RSI sits at 63, indicating short-term momentum is recovering within the broader downtrend; if the shorter-term indicators continue to improve, the stock may build a base for a moving average reclaim before the downtrend fully plays out.
The most recent reported quarter missed consensus by approximately 32%, and 2 of the last 4 quarters have missed estimates with an average surprise running at roughly negative 3%; this inconsistency limits confidence in the forward earnings estimates that underpin current valuation.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS surprise exceeds 5% for 2 consecutive quarters, establishing a consistent delivery pattern and reducing uncertainty around forward estimates.
CounterThe two quarters that beat estimates did so by 4% and 27% respectively, suggesting the company is capable of meaningful positive surprises when conditions align; if the upcoming quarter — with earnings in roughly 9 days — delivers a beat, sentiment could shift quickly given the stock's low starting multiple.
The current price of $114.80 sits just below the near-term resistance target of $114.94, leaving approximately 0.1% headroom and a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.02-to-1; the setup offers no meaningful reward for the downside risk present at this level.
Tripped↑ImprovingPrice targets
- Expectation
- A price decline of 10% or more creates upside to the near-term resistance target of at least 11% and restores a reward-to-risk profile above 1.5-to-1.
CounterA near-term positive earnings surprise — with results due in roughly 9 days — could lift the stock above resistance and establish a new higher base, making the current near-resistance positioning a near-term inflection rather than a ceiling.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.6 |
| ROA | 3.1 |
| Gross margin | 1.9 |
| Op margin | 4.6 |
| Net margin | 4.4 |
| Current ratio | 9.8 |
| FCF quality | 5.7 |
| Moat | 4.6 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 75% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
3.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 1.2 |
| EPS growth | 5.7 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -5%
Momentum
1.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 1.1 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 29, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.6%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 3.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.9 |
| Price target | 7.8 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: -0.40 (n=1)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (2.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 21%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.4 |
| quality rank | 5.9 |
| growth rank | 2.4 |
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.0 |
| support resistance | 8.9 |
| 52w position | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.3 |
| days to cover | 7.3 |
| volatility | 2.6 |
| beta | 8.9 |
| debt equity | 8.9 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 1.2 |
| dividend safety | 8.5 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 1.4% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:92d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (4)
- MOMENTUM:1.2<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.3<1.5@spot
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
- NEWS_SOFT:LEADERSHIP_CHANGE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.35
Upside
+2.8%
Downside
7.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupFalling Knife — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 29, MACD bearish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.1B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.1 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Insider at 7.3) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:1.2<4.5, ASYMMETRY:0.3<1.5@spot, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.35 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Insider at 7.3, Technical at 7.3, and Value at 6.6; the weakest are Momentum at 1.2, Growth at 3.5, and Catalyst at 4.7. The V9 engine flagged 4 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.35 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Revenue Declining Sixteen Percent
Trip ifRevenue growth exceeds 5% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters, confirming the contraction cycle has reversed and falsifying the declining-revenue concern.
- P2Confirmed Technical Downtrend
Trip if200-day moving average slope turns positive and price closes above the moving average for 10 consecutive trading days, reversing the confirmed downtrend.
- P3Inconsistent Earnings Delivery
Trip ifEPS surprise exceeds 5% for 2 consecutive quarters, establishing a consistent positive delivery pattern.
- P4Price At Resistance No UpsideTripped
Trip ifShare price falls to $103 or below, creating upside to the $114.94 resistance target above 11% and restoring a meaningful reward-to-risk profile.