Value
4.9/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 8.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 1.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 78.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.48
LIND · Why this verdict
Why Lindblad Expeditions Holdings I (LIND) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The stock has formed a golden cross, trades above all major moving averages, shows an RSI of 67, and is accompanied by rising on-balance volume — a technically constructive configuration that has historically preceded further price appreciation. Momentum breakdown | Price holds above the 200-day moving average and on-balance volume continues to rise over the next 12 consecutive weeks. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock has already traveled to within 1.5% of the near-term resistance target, meaning the technical breakout may be largely priced in and the reward-to-risk ratio for new buyers is thin at current levels. | ||
Institutional holders have been increasing their positions, a signal that larger, more research-intensive investors are building exposure — suggesting the fundamental picture has improved in their assessment. Insider breakdown | Institutional ownership continues to rise or holds stable in the next two consecutive quarterly filings. | →Stable |
| CounterInstitutional accumulation is a lagging signal; if the stock has already reached resistance and the options market is pricing in elevated downside risk, institutions may be slow to exit when the technical picture deteriorates. | ||
The put/call ratio stands at 5.60 — highly elevated by any measure — indicating that the options market is pricing in substantial downside protection demand, inconsistent with the otherwise constructive technical picture and raising the probability of near-term price pressure. Risk breakdown | Put/call ratio falls below 2.0 over the next 30 days, signaling a meaningful reduction in hedging pressure. | →Stable |
| CounterAn extreme put/call ratio can itself become a contrarian bullish signal if the protective positions expire worthless and sellers are forced to cover; it does not guarantee near-term declines. | ||
With the stock just 1.5% below the near-term resistance target and a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.21, the current price offers an unfavorable risk-adjusted setup — potential gains are a fraction of the potential decline from here. Price targets | A pullback creates at least 15% upside to the resistance target from a new entry level, restoring an acceptable reward-to-risk ratio. | →Stable |
| CounterNear-term resistance targets are not hard ceilings; if the business continues to improve and institutional interest grows, the stock could break through and establish a higher target zone. | ||
The stock has formed a golden cross, trades above all major moving averages, shows an RSI of 67, and is accompanied by rising on-balance volume — a technically constructive configuration that has historically preceded further price appreciation.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price holds above the 200-day moving average and on-balance volume continues to rise over the next 12 consecutive weeks.
CounterThe stock has already traveled to within 1.5% of the near-term resistance target, meaning the technical breakout may be largely priced in and the reward-to-risk ratio for new buyers is thin at current levels.
Institutional holders have been increasing their positions, a signal that larger, more research-intensive investors are building exposure — suggesting the fundamental picture has improved in their assessment.
→StableInsider breakdown
- Expectation
- Institutional ownership continues to rise or holds stable in the next two consecutive quarterly filings.
CounterInstitutional accumulation is a lagging signal; if the stock has already reached resistance and the options market is pricing in elevated downside risk, institutions may be slow to exit when the technical picture deteriorates.
The put/call ratio stands at 5.60 — highly elevated by any measure — indicating that the options market is pricing in substantial downside protection demand, inconsistent with the otherwise constructive technical picture and raising the probability of near-term price pressure.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Put/call ratio falls below 2.0 over the next 30 days, signaling a meaningful reduction in hedging pressure.
CounterAn extreme put/call ratio can itself become a contrarian bullish signal if the protective positions expire worthless and sellers are forced to cover; it does not guarantee near-term declines.
With the stock just 1.5% below the near-term resistance target and a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.21, the current price offers an unfavorable risk-adjusted setup — potential gains are a fraction of the potential decline from here.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- A pullback creates at least 15% upside to the resistance target from a new entry level, restoring an acceptable reward-to-risk ratio.
CounterNear-term resistance targets are not hard ceilings; if the business continues to improve and institutional interest grows, the stock could break through and establish a higher target zone.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Technical momentum is constructive — a golden cross, all moving averages aligned bullishly, and rising volume accumulation — but with only about 1.5% headroom to the near-term resistance target, a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.21, and an unusually elevated put/call ratio of 5.60, the setup does not offer an attractive entry at current prices.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 2.5 |
| Gross margin | 5.2 |
| Op margin | 3.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 3.3 |
| FCF quality | 6.0 |
| Moat | 6.2 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸FCF-positive but moderate margins (FCF margin 13%, FCF yield 6.1%)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
8.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.4 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 7.3 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 1.5 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.7 |
| Analyst rating | 7.3 |
| Price target | 4.8 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.35 (n=6)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (5.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $4,064,816 (0.236% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.0 |
| quality rank | 0.0 |
| growth rank | 5.3 |
Technical
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.8 |
| support resistance | 4.3 |
| 52w position | 7.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
1.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.5 |
| days to cover | 2.8 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 2.6 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 3.00
- ▸High IV: 98%
Catalyst
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Extreme risk factors.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:4.8>=4.5
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:31d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.0=NEGATIVE
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.8<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- INSIDER:0.24%=MODERATE
Reward-to-Risk
-0.96
Upside
-14.4%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 65, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 2.23>1.3, MCap $1.7B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Growth at 8.2 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: ASYMMETRY:-1.0=NEGATIVE.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.2, Catalyst at 6.9, and Sentiment at 6.4; the weakest are Risk (lower is worse) at 1.7, Peer rank at 3.6, and Quality at 4.4. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.96 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Technical Breakout Momentum
Trip ifPrice falls below the 200-day moving average for 2 consecutive weeks, invalidating the breakout thesis.
- P2Institutional Accumulation
Trip ifInstitutional ownership declines by more than 5 percentage points in a single quarterly filing.
- P3Extreme Put Call Pressure
Trip ifPut/call ratio falls below 1.0, indicating hedging pressure has resolved and falsifying the downside risk signal.
- P4Thin Upside To Target
Trip ifStock pulls back to create upside of more than 15% to the $24.32 resistance target, restoring favorable risk geometry.