Value
8.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 10.0 |
| P/S | 9.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 17.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.03
- ▸Attractively valued
LIME · Why this verdict
Why Neutron Holdings (LIME) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Neutron Holdings looks attractively valued with strong growth and quality (Piotroski 8/9), but earnings are expected to decline about 72% from a cyclical peak and the forward P/E of 18x is 3.6x the trailing multiple, so cheapness on trailing numbers is a cyclical trap risk.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quality is 6.2 with strong margins of 21%, a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and peer-rank quality of 8.9 (best in class). Quality breakdown | Piotroski F-Score stays at or above 7 and margins hold near 21% over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterPeak-cycle margins in rental and leasing tend to mean-revert, so the high quality reading may overstate through-cycle quality. | ||
Earnings are expected to decline about 72% from a cyclical peak, and forward P/E of 18x is 3.6x the trailing 5x, flagging a cyclical trap. Bear case | Forward earnings estimates stabilize and forward P/E converges toward the trailing multiple rather than widening further. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe 72% decline estimate may be conservative, and the recent EPS beat of $4.74 against $1.93 suggests analysts may be underestimating earnings. | ||
The PEG is 0.03 and the analyst target of $34.30 sits 31.7% above the $26.05 price, with asymmetry of 2.39 clearing the 1.5 gate. Valuation breakdown | Price moves toward the $34.30 analyst target over 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA low PEG built on peak-cycle trailing earnings is unreliable, and 51% raw analyst upside may be anchored to estimates that will be cut. | ||
Growth is strong at 24% YoY, but quarterly revenue sources diverge sharply, with a June 2026 XBRL figure of $71.0M versus $304.2M from yfinance, a 328% divergence. Revenue data issues | Revenue sources reconcile and reported growth stays above 20% YoY. | →Stable |
| CounterThe data conflict means the 24% growth figure itself is unreliable, and the true revenue base is uncertain. | ||
Momentum is 3.9, below the 4.5 gate, with falling on-balance volume and price 41% off its 52-week high. Momentum breakdown | Momentum rises above 4.5 and on-balance volume turns upward over 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterMACD component is 8.3 and the Bollinger component is 10.0, suggesting selling pressure may be easing. | ||
Quality is 6.2 with strong margins of 21%, a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and peer-rank quality of 8.9 (best in class).
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski F-Score stays at or above 7 and margins hold near 21% over the next 12 months.
CounterPeak-cycle margins in rental and leasing tend to mean-revert, so the high quality reading may overstate through-cycle quality.
Earnings are expected to decline about 72% from a cyclical peak, and forward P/E of 18x is 3.6x the trailing 5x, flagging a cyclical trap.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Forward earnings estimates stabilize and forward P/E converges toward the trailing multiple rather than widening further.
CounterThe 72% decline estimate may be conservative, and the recent EPS beat of $4.74 against $1.93 suggests analysts may be underestimating earnings.
The PEG is 0.03 and the analyst target of $34.30 sits 31.7% above the $26.05 price, with asymmetry of 2.39 clearing the 1.5 gate.
↑ImprovingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Price moves toward the $34.30 analyst target over 12 months.
CounterA low PEG built on peak-cycle trailing earnings is unreliable, and 51% raw analyst upside may be anchored to estimates that will be cut.
Growth is strong at 24% YoY, but quarterly revenue sources diverge sharply, with a June 2026 XBRL figure of $71.0M versus $304.2M from yfinance, a 328% divergence.
→StableRevenue data issues
- Expectation
- Revenue sources reconcile and reported growth stays above 20% YoY.
CounterThe data conflict means the 24% growth figure itself is unreliable, and the true revenue base is uncertain.
Momentum is 3.9, below the 4.5 gate, with falling on-balance volume and price 41% off its 52-week high.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum rises above 4.5 and on-balance volume turns upward over 12 months.
CounterMACD component is 8.3 and the Bollinger component is 10.0, suggesting selling pressure may be easing.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.2/10data confidence 86%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 3.7 |
| Op margin | 1.7 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.8 |
| Moat | 7.2 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 21%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
8.4/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 8.4 |
- ▸Strong growth: 24% YoY
Momentum
2.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 3.4 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.5 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
Sentiment
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.6 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 53%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
8.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.3 |
| quality rank | 8.9 |
| growth rank | 8.3 |
- ▸Best in class
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.8 |
| support resistance | 7.1 |
| 52w position | 1.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.1/10data confidence 60%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 6.1 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| debt equity | 9.2 |
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Earnings in 14 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:2.3>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:2.3<4.5
Warning (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:14d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
2.26
Upside
+33.4%
Downside
14.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.6B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -42% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: ASYMMETRY:2.3>=1.5. Top dim: Value at 8.7; weakest: Momentum at 2.3. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.7, Growth at 8.4, and Peer rank at 8.2; the weakest are Momentum at 2.3, Risk (lower is worse) at 5.1, and Technical at 5.8. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.26 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Cyclical Peak Earnings Decline
Trip ifQuarterly EPS falls below $1.00 from the latest $4.74.
- P2Attractive Valuation Analyst Upside
Trip ifAnalyst target falls below $28, cutting upside to less than 8% from $26.05.
- P3Strong Quality And Margins
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 6 out of 9.
- P4Revenue Growth With Data Conflict
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 10% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P5Negative Momentum Gate Failure
Trip ifPrice falls below the $24.49 stop level, more than 6% under $26.05.