Value
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 0.0 |
| P/S | 9.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.8 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 18.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.01
LFST · Why this verdict
Why LifeStance Health Group (LFST) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.5 |
| ROA | 0.9 |
| Gross margin | 2.5 |
| Op margin | 2.2 |
| Net margin | 0.8 |
| Current ratio | 5.5 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.6 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 606% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
7.8/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong growth: 21% YoY
Momentum
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 7.6 |
| MACD | 2.6 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 0.4 |
- ▸Uptrend pullback (RSI 39) - buy opportunity
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.0 |
| Price target | 9.3 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (10.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 44%
Insider
3.0/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $281,869,408 (9.962% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
2.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.6 |
| quality rank | 1.3 |
| growth rank | 8.9 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
8.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 9.2 |
| support resistance | 8.9 |
| 52w position | 6.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.7 |
| days to cover | 9.7 |
| volatility | 4.2 |
| put call | 6.7 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 6.2 |
| debt equity | 8.7 |
- ▸High IV: 104%
- ▸Above max pain $1
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:3.8>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:59d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:3.5<4.5
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
3.77
Upside
+25.0%
Downside
6.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $2.8B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.4 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Technical at 8.2) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:3.5<4.5) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 3.77 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 8.2, Growth at 7.8, and Sentiment at 7.2; the weakest are Peer rank at 2.7, Insider at 3.0, and Momentum at 3.5. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.77 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.