Value
8.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.4 |
| P/S | 9.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.35
- ▸Attractively valued
LCII · Why this verdict
Why LCI Industries (LCII) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
LCI Industries offers an unusual combination of a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak and deep valuation discount in an extreme technical oversold setup, with the long-term moving average still rising — setting up a potential cyclical reentry — though heavy OEM segment concentration and elevated short interest cap conviction.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company has beaten consensus estimates in all four of the most recent quarters, with surprises ranging from 4% to 37% and forward estimates trending upward, reflecting consistent execution and a management team that has been systematically delivering above initial guidance. Earnings | The beat streak continues for at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, with average positive surprise above 10%. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe oldest quarter in the streak recorded only a 4% beat before three larger outperformance quarters; if end-market demand softens — given OEM revenue represents 77% of the total — a single demand down-cycle could break the streak and reprice the stock sharply lower. | ||
With approximately 77% of revenue concentrated in the OEM segment, the company's results are tightly coupled to a single end-market, providing limited diversification if that channel experiences a cyclical slowdown. Bear case | OEM segment revenue concentration falls below 70% of total for 2 consecutive quarters as aftermarket or other revenues grow faster. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterDeep specialization in the OEM channel can create long-term supply agreements and meaningful switching-cost advantages, making the concentration strategic rather than merely fragile. | ||
At a forward price-to-earnings of 9.2 times with a PEG ratio of 0.30, the stock screens as attractively priced relative to its growth trajectory, and RSI near 16 alongside proximity to the Bollinger lower band signal short-term capitulation conditions that have historically preceded recoveries. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E rises above 14x from the current 9.2x within 12 months as earnings recovery validates the discount. | ↑Improving |
| CounterOversold technical conditions in the context of elevated short interest at 11% and a put/call ratio of 2.56 suggest active investor distribution rather than passive repricing; oversold readings in downtrends can persist for extended periods before resolving. | ||
While the stock trades below its 200-day moving average, the trend line itself is still advancing at +1.3% per month — more consistent with a cyclical pullback within a longer-term uptrend than a confirmed structural reversal. Momentum breakdown | Stock reclaims the 200-day moving average within 3 months without the trend slope turning negative. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterRSI near 16 paired with falling on-balance volume indicates active selling pressure rather than passive drift; if the moving average slope turns negative, what currently reads as a pullback could be reclassified as the start of a sustained breakdown. | ||
The company has beaten consensus estimates in all four of the most recent quarters, with surprises ranging from 4% to 37% and forward estimates trending upward, reflecting consistent execution and a management team that has been systematically delivering above initial guidance.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat streak continues for at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, with average positive surprise above 10%.
CounterThe oldest quarter in the streak recorded only a 4% beat before three larger outperformance quarters; if end-market demand softens — given OEM revenue represents 77% of the total — a single demand down-cycle could break the streak and reprice the stock sharply lower.
With approximately 77% of revenue concentrated in the OEM segment, the company's results are tightly coupled to a single end-market, providing limited diversification if that channel experiences a cyclical slowdown.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- OEM segment revenue concentration falls below 70% of total for 2 consecutive quarters as aftermarket or other revenues grow faster.
CounterDeep specialization in the OEM channel can create long-term supply agreements and meaningful switching-cost advantages, making the concentration strategic rather than merely fragile.
At a forward price-to-earnings of 9.2 times with a PEG ratio of 0.30, the stock screens as attractively priced relative to its growth trajectory, and RSI near 16 alongside proximity to the Bollinger lower band signal short-term capitulation conditions that have historically preceded recoveries.
↑ImprovingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E rises above 14x from the current 9.2x within 12 months as earnings recovery validates the discount.
CounterOversold technical conditions in the context of elevated short interest at 11% and a put/call ratio of 2.56 suggest active investor distribution rather than passive repricing; oversold readings in downtrends can persist for extended periods before resolving.
While the stock trades below its 200-day moving average, the trend line itself is still advancing at +1.3% per month — more consistent with a cyclical pullback within a longer-term uptrend than a confirmed structural reversal.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Stock reclaims the 200-day moving average within 3 months without the trend slope turning negative.
CounterRSI near 16 paired with falling on-balance volume indicates active selling pressure rather than passive drift; if the moving average slope turns negative, what currently reads as a pullback could be reclassified as the start of a sustained breakdown.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.9 |
| ROA | 3.9 |
| Gross margin | 0.8 |
| Op margin | 3.5 |
| Net margin | 2.4 |
| Current ratio | 9.7 |
| FCF quality | 4.9 |
| Moat | 4.2 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 63% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
5.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.6 |
| EPS growth | 8.1 |
Momentum
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.2 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.4%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.5 |
| Analyst rating | 7.0 |
| Price target | 8.8 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (10.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 33%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
6.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.8 |
| quality rank | 8.0 |
| growth rank | 6.0 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.2 |
| support resistance | 4.5 |
| 52w position | 3.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.0 |
| days to cover | 7.2 |
| volatility | 3.9 |
| put call | 3.3 |
| implied vol | 4.9 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 6.3 |
| debt equity | 5.7 |
- ▸Above max pain $65
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 6.5 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings in 11 days
- ▸Dividend: 4.3%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULTPassed (5)
- ASYMMETRY:1.8>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:3.9<4.5
Warning (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:11d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
1.75
Upside
+15.9%
Downside
9.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 48 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 11d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $2.5B<$5B
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: ASYMMETRY:1.8>=1.5. Top dim: Value at 8.7; weakest: Momentum at 3.9. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.7, Insider at 7.3, and Sentiment at 7.0; the weakest are Momentum at 3.9, Technical at 4.3, and Quality at 4.7. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.75 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Deep Valuation Extreme Oversold
Trip ifForward P/E expands above 15x from the current 9.2x without a commensurate increase in earnings estimates.
- P3Pullback Within Rising Trend
Trip ifThe 200-day moving average slope turns negative for more than 30 consecutive days, confirming a structural trend reversal.
- P4Oem Segment Concentration Risk
Trip ifOEM segment revenue concentration falls below 70% of total revenue for 2 consecutive quarters.