Value
8.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.5 |
| P/S | 9.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.34
- ▸Attractively valued
LCII · Why this verdict
Why LCI Industries (LCII) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company has beaten consensus estimates in all four of the most recent quarters, with surprises ranging from 4% to 37% and forward estimates trending upward, reflecting consistent execution and a management team that has been systematically delivering above initial guidance. Earnings | The beat streak continues for at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, with average positive surprise above 10%. | →Stable |
| CounterThe oldest quarter in the streak recorded only a 4% beat before three larger outperformance quarters; if end-market demand softens — given OEM revenue represents 77% of the total — a single demand down-cycle could break the streak and reprice the stock sharply lower. | ||
With approximately 77% of revenue concentrated in the OEM segment, the company's results are tightly coupled to a single end-market, providing limited diversification if that channel experiences a cyclical slowdown. Bear case | OEM segment revenue concentration falls below 70% of total for 2 consecutive quarters as aftermarket or other revenues grow faster. | →Stable |
| CounterDeep specialization in the OEM channel can create long-term supply agreements and meaningful switching-cost advantages, making the concentration strategic rather than merely fragile. | ||
At a forward price-to-earnings of 9.2 times with a PEG ratio of 0.30, the stock screens as attractively priced relative to its growth trajectory, and RSI near 16 alongside proximity to the Bollinger lower band signal short-term capitulation conditions that have historically preceded recoveries. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E rises above 14x from the current 9.2x within 12 months as earnings recovery validates the discount. | →Stable |
| CounterOversold technical conditions in the context of elevated short interest at 11% and a put/call ratio of 2.56 suggest active investor distribution rather than passive repricing; oversold readings in downtrends can persist for extended periods before resolving. | ||
While the stock trades below its 200-day moving average, the trend line itself is still advancing at +1.3% per month — more consistent with a cyclical pullback within a longer-term uptrend than a confirmed structural reversal. Momentum breakdown | Stock reclaims the 200-day moving average within 3 months without the trend slope turning negative. | →Stable |
| CounterRSI near 16 paired with falling on-balance volume indicates active selling pressure rather than passive drift; if the moving average slope turns negative, what currently reads as a pullback could be reclassified as the start of a sustained breakdown. | ||
The company has beaten consensus estimates in all four of the most recent quarters, with surprises ranging from 4% to 37% and forward estimates trending upward, reflecting consistent execution and a management team that has been systematically delivering above initial guidance.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat streak continues for at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, with average positive surprise above 10%.
CounterThe oldest quarter in the streak recorded only a 4% beat before three larger outperformance quarters; if end-market demand softens — given OEM revenue represents 77% of the total — a single demand down-cycle could break the streak and reprice the stock sharply lower.
With approximately 77% of revenue concentrated in the OEM segment, the company's results are tightly coupled to a single end-market, providing limited diversification if that channel experiences a cyclical slowdown.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- OEM segment revenue concentration falls below 70% of total for 2 consecutive quarters as aftermarket or other revenues grow faster.
CounterDeep specialization in the OEM channel can create long-term supply agreements and meaningful switching-cost advantages, making the concentration strategic rather than merely fragile.
At a forward price-to-earnings of 9.2 times with a PEG ratio of 0.30, the stock screens as attractively priced relative to its growth trajectory, and RSI near 16 alongside proximity to the Bollinger lower band signal short-term capitulation conditions that have historically preceded recoveries.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E rises above 14x from the current 9.2x within 12 months as earnings recovery validates the discount.
CounterOversold technical conditions in the context of elevated short interest at 11% and a put/call ratio of 2.56 suggest active investor distribution rather than passive repricing; oversold readings in downtrends can persist for extended periods before resolving.
While the stock trades below its 200-day moving average, the trend line itself is still advancing at +1.3% per month — more consistent with a cyclical pullback within a longer-term uptrend than a confirmed structural reversal.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Stock reclaims the 200-day moving average within 3 months without the trend slope turning negative.
CounterRSI near 16 paired with falling on-balance volume indicates active selling pressure rather than passive drift; if the moving average slope turns negative, what currently reads as a pullback could be reclassified as the start of a sustained breakdown.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
LCI Industries offers an unusual combination of a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak and deep valuation discount in an extreme technical oversold setup, with the long-term moving average still rising — setting up a potential cyclical reentry — though heavy OEM segment concentration and elevated short interest cap conviction.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.9 |
| ROA | 3.9 |
| Gross margin | 0.8 |
| Op margin | 3.5 |
| Net margin | 2.4 |
| Current ratio | 9.7 |
| FCF quality | 4.9 |
| Moat | 4.2 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 63% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
5.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.6 |
| EPS growth | 8.1 |
Momentum
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 2.9 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 5.2 |
| Volume | 7.9 |
- ▸Overbought bear rally (RSI 71)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.1%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.5 |
| Analyst rating | 7.0 |
| Price target | 9.1 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.50 (n=2)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (10.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 39%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.3 |
| quality rank | 8.0 |
| growth rank | 6.0 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
2.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.3 |
| support resistance | 2.4 |
| 52w position | 3.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.2 |
| days to cover | 4.4 |
| volatility | 2.7 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 5.4 |
| beta | 6.3 |
| debt equity | 5.7 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 3.36
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.5 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 6.5 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 445.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
News gate: 1 distinct critical events (1 MATERIAL_RISK articles).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULT|L3:NEWS_MOD=+1|NEWS_GATE:BLOCKEDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:7.2>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.5>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:32d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
1.48
Upside
+20.5%
Downside
13.9%
Sizing output
STARTER
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $2.5B<$5B
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: MOMENTUM:7.2>=5.5. Top dim: Value at 8.7; weakest: Technical at 2.0. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.7, Sentiment at 7.8, and Catalyst at 7.3; the weakest are Technical at 2.0, Risk (lower is worse) at 4.1, and Quality at 4.7. The V9 engine cleared all gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.48 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Deep Valuation Extreme Oversold
Trip ifForward P/E expands above 15x from the current 9.2x without a commensurate increase in earnings estimates.
- P3Pullback Within Rising Trend
Trip ifThe 200-day moving average slope turns negative for more than 30 consecutive days, confirming a structural trend reversal.
- P4Oem Segment Concentration Risk
Trip ifOEM segment revenue concentration falls below 70% of total revenue for 2 consecutive quarters.