Value
7.7/10data confidence 40%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.6 |
- ▸Attractively valued
LBTYB · Why this verdict
Why Liberty Global (LBTYB) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
A high-severity concentration risk is tied to dependence on third-party programming providers—a single-supplier category that, if disrupted or renegotiated at worse terms, could materially impair revenue and margins without adequate fallback options. Bear case | The combined growth-plus-profitability measure turns positive (above 0) for 2 consecutive quarters, indicating supplier cost burden has not deteriorated. | →Stable |
| CounterLong-established supplier relationships in the programming distribution industry are typically governed by multi-year contracts, which limit near-term disruption risk even when concentration is high. | ||
Momentum has failed its minimum required threshold, with on-balance volume in a declining trend indicating supply pressure is dominating—a combination of weak price action and volume distribution that does not support a durable recovery in the near term. Engine gate (failed) | On-balance volume reverses to a rising trend and price breaks above the 200-day moving average, sustaining for 4 consecutive weeks. | →Stable |
| CounterPrice remains above the 200-day moving average and the Bollinger band score near the upper band suggests near-term stabilization; the weakness may be a short-term pullback rather than a structural deterioration. | ||
Business quality falls below the minimum acceptable level, with free cash flow running at approximately negative 14% of revenue, no measurable competitive moat, and a combined growth-plus-profitability measure deeply negative at negative 5—making this a structurally cash-consuming enterprise at present. Warnings | Free cash flow as a percentage of revenue turns positive and the combined growth-plus-profitability measure rises above 0 within the next four quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe Piotroski F-Score of approximately 6.7 out of 9 reflects relative balance-sheet health in areas unaffected by the current cash burn, suggesting the underlying capital structure can tolerate the current operating weakness. | ||
Current price has reached a level where essentially no meaningful upside remains to the near-term resistance ceiling while downside risk of approximately 10.3% persists—an asymmetric setup that works entirely against new buyers and offers no cushion for error. Gates warning | Price retraces to a level where upside to the $15.88 resistance target exceeds 10%, restoring an asymmetric entry. | →Stable |
| CounterTechnical positioning near the upper Bollinger band and strong support/resistance scoring indicate the stock has held its level well; consolidation at current prices may precede a breakout that renders the current ceiling moot. | ||
A high-severity concentration risk is tied to dependence on third-party programming providers—a single-supplier category that, if disrupted or renegotiated at worse terms, could materially impair revenue and margins without adequate fallback options.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- The combined growth-plus-profitability measure turns positive (above 0) for 2 consecutive quarters, indicating supplier cost burden has not deteriorated.
CounterLong-established supplier relationships in the programming distribution industry are typically governed by multi-year contracts, which limit near-term disruption risk even when concentration is high.
Momentum has failed its minimum required threshold, with on-balance volume in a declining trend indicating supply pressure is dominating—a combination of weak price action and volume distribution that does not support a durable recovery in the near term.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- On-balance volume reverses to a rising trend and price breaks above the 200-day moving average, sustaining for 4 consecutive weeks.
CounterPrice remains above the 200-day moving average and the Bollinger band score near the upper band suggests near-term stabilization; the weakness may be a short-term pullback rather than a structural deterioration.
Business quality falls below the minimum acceptable level, with free cash flow running at approximately negative 14% of revenue, no measurable competitive moat, and a combined growth-plus-profitability measure deeply negative at negative 5—making this a structurally cash-consuming enterprise at present.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- Free cash flow as a percentage of revenue turns positive and the combined growth-plus-profitability measure rises above 0 within the next four quarters.
CounterThe Piotroski F-Score of approximately 6.7 out of 9 reflects relative balance-sheet health in areas unaffected by the current cash burn, suggesting the underlying capital structure can tolerate the current operating weakness.
Current price has reached a level where essentially no meaningful upside remains to the near-term resistance ceiling while downside risk of approximately 10.3% persists—an asymmetric setup that works entirely against new buyers and offers no cushion for error.
→StableGates warning
- Expectation
- Price retraces to a level where upside to the $15.88 resistance target exceeds 10%, restoring an asymmetric entry.
CounterTechnical positioning near the upper Bollinger band and strong support/resistance scoring indicate the stock has held its level well; consolidation at current prices may precede a breakout that renders the current ceiling moot.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Liberty Global (this share class) combines a failed momentum threshold, an upside-exhausted price geometry with approximately 10.3% of downside and effectively zero upside to the near-term ceiling, and a business burning cash at approximately 14% of revenue—making it a setup where risk is overwhelmingly tilted against new buyers.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.1 |
| Gross margin | 9.2 |
| Op margin | 1.8 |
| Current ratio | 4.3 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 5.1 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -14% of revenue
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Rule of 40: -5 (fail)
Growth
4.7/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.7 |
Momentum
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 8.0 |
| MACD | 6.9 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
- ▸Uptrend pullback (RSI 35) - buy opportunity
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
2.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.7 |
| quality rank | 0.0 |
| growth rank | 6.7 |
Technical
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.1 |
| support resistance | 5.4 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 10.0 |
| days to cover | 9.9 |
| volatility | 2.0 |
| beta | 8.6 |
| debt equity | 5.2 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.0/10data confidence 25%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:7.2>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (2)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.0%
Downside
8.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -54% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Value at 7.7 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.7, Momentum at 7.2, and Risk (lower is worse) at 7.1; the weakest are Peer rank at 2.6, Quality at 3.4, and Technical at 3.8. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Momentum Gate Failure Confirmed Weakness
Trip ifPrice breaks above the 200-day moving average and holds for 4 consecutive weeks.
- P2Quality Below Floor Cash Burning
Trip ifFree cash flow as a percentage of revenue turns positive (above 0%) for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Supplier Concentration High Risk
Trip ifRule-of-40 metric turns positive (above 0) for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Upside Exhausted No Return Geometry
Trip ifUpside to the $15.88 take-profit target exceeds 10% from the prevailing price.