Value
7.6/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.9 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Attractively valued
LBTYA · Why this verdict
Why Liberty Global (LBTYA) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The business falls below the minimum acceptable quality threshold, burning cash at approximately 14% of revenue while failing the combined growth-and-profitability metric by five points and showing no measurable competitive moat—a combination that puts the entire investment case on a fragile foundation dependent on future operational improvement. Warnings | Free cash flow improves toward breakeven (less than negative 5% of revenue) and the combined growth-plus-margin measure turns positive within the next four quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterA Piotroski score of approximately 6.7 out of 9 indicates balance-sheet health is not deteriorating rapidly across most dimensions, suggesting the current cash burn may be concentrated in a discrete area of the business rather than being structural. | ||
The earnings record alternates between large beats and catastrophic misses—the two most recent miss quarters each arrived with surprises worse than negative 1,300%—indicating the earnings stream is highly susceptible to one-time charges or accounting volatility that makes consistent forecasting unreliable. Earnings | The next two quarters each produce EPS surprises above 0%, ending the alternating pattern and allowing the rolling average surprise to turn positive. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recently reported quarter produced a strong beat of approximately 279%, and the alternating pattern could reflect lumpy but ultimately recoverable dynamics; the most recent print may mark the beginning of a more stable earnings trajectory. | ||
With approximately 10.3% of headroom to the take-profit target, a risk/reward ratio above 1.6-to-1, and price sustaining above the 200-day moving average with rising volume, the technical and price-geometry conditions are more constructive than the quality metrics alone would suggest. Price targets | Price reaches within 3% of the $13.28 take-profit target within 12 months while holding above the 200-day moving average. | →Stable |
| CounterA favorable price geometry is contingent on earnings volatility not repeating; a large miss in either of the next two quarters could swiftly compress the 10.3% headroom by driving the price lower. | ||
Sell-side analysts embed approximately 27% of additional upside in their consensus price targets, reflecting meaningful positive divergence between the current market price and the street's fundamental view—a spread that can act as a gravitational pull on price over a 12-month horizon. Sentiment breakdown | Analyst consensus price target holds above its current level, implying at least 20% upside from today, for the next two quarters with stable or growing analyst coverage. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst coverage is a lagging indicator; if the earnings volatility documented in recent quarters persists, target revisions may significantly compress this upside before it is captured. | ||
The business falls below the minimum acceptable quality threshold, burning cash at approximately 14% of revenue while failing the combined growth-and-profitability metric by five points and showing no measurable competitive moat—a combination that puts the entire investment case on a fragile foundation dependent on future operational improvement.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- Free cash flow improves toward breakeven (less than negative 5% of revenue) and the combined growth-plus-margin measure turns positive within the next four quarters.
CounterA Piotroski score of approximately 6.7 out of 9 indicates balance-sheet health is not deteriorating rapidly across most dimensions, suggesting the current cash burn may be concentrated in a discrete area of the business rather than being structural.
The earnings record alternates between large beats and catastrophic misses—the two most recent miss quarters each arrived with surprises worse than negative 1,300%—indicating the earnings stream is highly susceptible to one-time charges or accounting volatility that makes consistent forecasting unreliable.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The next two quarters each produce EPS surprises above 0%, ending the alternating pattern and allowing the rolling average surprise to turn positive.
CounterThe most recently reported quarter produced a strong beat of approximately 279%, and the alternating pattern could reflect lumpy but ultimately recoverable dynamics; the most recent print may mark the beginning of a more stable earnings trajectory.
With approximately 10.3% of headroom to the take-profit target, a risk/reward ratio above 1.6-to-1, and price sustaining above the 200-day moving average with rising volume, the technical and price-geometry conditions are more constructive than the quality metrics alone would suggest.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- Price reaches within 3% of the $13.28 take-profit target within 12 months while holding above the 200-day moving average.
CounterA favorable price geometry is contingent on earnings volatility not repeating; a large miss in either of the next two quarters could swiftly compress the 10.3% headroom by driving the price lower.
Sell-side analysts embed approximately 27% of additional upside in their consensus price targets, reflecting meaningful positive divergence between the current market price and the street's fundamental view—a spread that can act as a gravitational pull on price over a 12-month horizon.
→StableSentiment breakdown
- Expectation
- Analyst consensus price target holds above its current level, implying at least 20% upside from today, for the next two quarters with stable or growing analyst coverage.
CounterAnalyst coverage is a lagging indicator; if the earnings volatility documented in recent quarters persists, target revisions may significantly compress this upside before it is captured.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Liberty Global's shares sit at a crossroads between a constructive price setup—approximately 10.3% of upside to target, a favorable risk/reward ratio above 1.6-to-1, and positive technical momentum above the 200-day moving average—and a fragile quality base marked by cash-burning operations equivalent to approximately 14% of revenue, a failed combined growth-and-profitability measure, and an earnings history alternating between large beats and catastrophic misses.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.1 |
| Gross margin | 9.2 |
| Op margin | 1.8 |
| Current ratio | 4.3 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 5.1 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -14% of revenue
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Rule of 40: -5 (fail)
Growth
4.7/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.7 |
Momentum
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 3.8 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 2.1 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.3%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 8.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 35%
Insider
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.5 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $2,306,170 (0.060% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
2.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.9 |
| quality rank | 0.0 |
| growth rank | 6.7 |
Technical
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.7 |
| support resistance | 7.8 |
| 52w position | 6.7 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.9 |
| days to cover | 4.7 |
| volatility | 4.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 1.0 |
| beta | 8.6 |
| debt equity | 5.2 |
- ▸High IV: 74%
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:2.6>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:21d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:2.5<4.5
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
2.58
Upside
+17.5%
Downside
6.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $3.8B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Value at 7.6 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:2.5<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.6, Technical at 6.5, and Sentiment at 6.3; the weakest are Momentum at 2.5, Peer rank at 2.9, and Catalyst at 3.3. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.58 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Cash Burning Quality Below Floor
Trip ifFree cash flow as a percentage of revenue turns positive (above 0%) for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Volatile Earnings Large One Time Swings
Trip ifEPS surprise stays above 0% for 3 consecutive quarters.
- P3Favorable Risk Reward Above 200ma
Trip ifPrice closes below the 200-day moving average for 4 consecutive weeks.
- P4Analyst Consensus Constructive Upside
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target is revised down such that implied upside from the current price falls below 10%.