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KRCKilroy Realty CorporationSell4.7·$39.32+0.41%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Kilroy Realty's above-average margins and recent earnings beats suggest the property portfolio is performing, but a death cross, an overbought momentum reading at RSI 79, only about 0.2% of headroom remaining to the near-term resistance target, and heavy geographic plus tenant concentration stack the risk/reward against new entrants — the setup favors reducing exposure rather than adding.

Thesis pillars

  • Geographic Tenant Concentration RiskStable
  • Death Cross Overbought Distribution RiskStable
  • Price At Resistance Negligible UpsideStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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Kilroy Realty Corporation (KRC) Stock Analysis

Momentum Cont setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Office

Sell if holding. At $39.32, A.R:R is negative (-1.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: California; Concentration risk — Customer: top-20 tenants (53.7%).

Kilroy Realty owns 121 office and life science buildings totaling 16.3 million sq ft in California, Seattle, and Austin, at 81.6% occupancy at year-end 2025. Revenue comes from long-term leases; technology companies represent 51% and top-20 tenants account for 53.7% of... Read more

$39.32-0.9% A.UpsideScore 4.7/10#9 of 17 REIT - Office
QualityF-score5 / 9FCF yield7.47%
IncomeYield5.49%(5y avg 5.36%)Payout118.03%
Stop $37.22Target $38.95(resistance)A.R:R -1.6:1
Analyst target$37.14-5.5%14 analysts
$38.95our TP
$39.32price
$37.14mean
$28
$51

Sell if holding. At $39.32, A.R:R is negative (-1.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: California; Concentration risk — Customer: top-20 tenants (53.7%). Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 58, MACD bullish. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 23d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Kilroy Realty Corporation

About Kilroy Realty Corporation

Kilroy Realty's stabilized portfolio comprised 121 office buildings totaling 16.3 million rentable square feet at 81.6% occupancy and three residential properties with 1,001 units at 94.1% average occupancy at December 31, 2025. All real estate assets are located in California, the Seattle metropolitan area, and Austin, Texas. Technology companies accounted for 51% of annualized base rental revenue, and the top 20 tenants represented approximately 53.7% of total annualized base rental revenues.

Kilroy Realty earns revenue primarily from long-term office and life science leases, which represented 98.3% of revenues in 2025. The portfolio mixes lease structures: 46% triple-net, 26% modified gross, 22% full-service gross, and 6% modified net at year-end 2025 by annualized base rental revenue. Life science tenants are concentrated in San Diego and the San Francisco Bay Area, where LEED-certified office and life science assets have been developed. Near-term re-leasing risk is visible: leases representing 8.0% and 7.7% of leased rentable square footage expire in 2026 and 2027 respectively, while 18.4% of stabilized office space was unoccupied at year-end. The company employs 241 people and finances through unsecured debt targeting an investment-grade rating; approximately $70.0 million in accrued environmental remediation liabilities have been recognized on certain development projects.

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Kilroy Realty's office-concentrated, California-heavy portfolio faces the risk that hybrid-work adoption and space-efficiency trends among technology tenants — 51% of revenue — persist. The 10-K notes that office tenants are 'more selective in making rental decisions' and that 'relocating and renewing tenants are pursuing space efficiencies.' With 18.4% of stabilized square footage unoccupied and both 2026 and 2027 lease rolls each approaching 8% of leased space, mark-to-market outcomes on renewals could weigh on net operating income if technology-sector hiring and office utilization remain subdued.

See also: Real Estate · REIT - Office

From Kilroy Realty Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-06
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Jul 27, 202623d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: California
Concentration risk — Customer: top-20 tenants (53.7%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)21.5
P/E (Fwd)78.6
Mkt Cap$4.6B
EV/EBITDA14.9
Profit Mgn19.6%
ROE4.4%
Rev Growth-0.3%
Beta1.14
Dividend5.49%
Rating analysts23

Quality Signals

Piotroski F5/9

Options Flow

P/C0.00bullish
IV55%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicCalifornia
    10-K Item 1A: 'all of our properties are concentrated in California, the Seattle, Washington Metropolitan Area, and the Austin, Texas Metropolitan Area'
  • HIGHCustomertop-20 tenants54%
    10-K Item 1A: 'our 20 largest tenants represented approximately 53.7% of total annualized base rental revenues'
  • HIGHCustomertechnology industry tenants51%
    10-K Item 1A: '51% of our tenants operated in the technology industry'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-19Item 5.02LOW
    Kilroy Realty 2026 annual meeting approved amended 2006 Incentive Award Plan, increasing aggregate share limit by 1,700,000 shares to a new total of 14,320,000 shares. No officer departure or appointment.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -0.3% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
2.4
Declining revenue: -0%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
0.9
52w Position
8.6
GatesA.R:R -1.6=NEGATIVEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 6.8>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 23d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARMomentum ContSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
58 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $35.04Resistance $39.74

Price Targets

$37
$39
A.Upside-0.9%
A.R:R-1.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-17.8% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-27 (23d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is KRC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $39.32, A.R:R is negative (-1.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: California; Concentration risk — Customer: top-20 tenants (53.7%). Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 58, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $37.22. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the KRC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $38.95 (-0.9% upside). Prior stop was $37.22. Stop-loss: $37.22.

What are the risks of investing in KRC?

Concentration risk — Geographic: California; Concentration risk — Customer: top-20 tenants (53.7%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is KRC overvalued or undervalued?

Kilroy Realty Corporation trades at a P/E of 21.5 (forward 78.6). TrendMatrix value score: 4.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about KRC?

23 analysts cover KRC with a consensus score of 2.8/5. Average price target: $37.

What does Kilroy Realty Corporation do?Kilroy Realty owns 121 office and life science buildings totaling 16.3 million sq ft in California, Seattle, and...

Kilroy Realty owns 121 office and life science buildings totaling 16.3 million sq ft in California, Seattle, and Austin, at 81.6% occupancy at year-end 2025. Revenue comes from long-term leases; technology companies represent 51% and top-20 tenants account for 53.7% of annualized base rental revenues.

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