Value
9.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.5 |
| P/S | 8.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.6 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 7.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.12
- ▸Attractively valued
KGC · Why this verdict
Why Kinross Gold (KGC) is rated BUY NOW
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictBUY NOW
Overall score6.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Kinross Gold combines elite quality (9.5/10), 30% growth and a low forward P/E of 8.3x with 20.7% upside to the analyst target, but a confirmed downtrend and earnings in 4 days argue for patience on entry.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Momentum scores only 3.3/10 with price below the 200-day average, falling OBV and a 43% drawdown, so the trend is still down. Momentum breakdown | Price should reclaim the 200-day average and momentum should recover above 4.5 within 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA death cross with a falling 30-day slope of -1.6% can persist for months, and recovery setups often fail. | ||
Quality scores 9.5/10 with 37% ROE, 38% margins, a wide moat and a 9/9 Piotroski F-Score, marking a high-quality gold producer. Quality breakdown | ROE should stay above 25% and margins above 30% over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterGold-miner margins are driven by the gold price, so peak-cycle profitability can look like durable quality and reverse if gold falls. | ||
Revenue and earnings are growing about 30% YoY, with quarterly revenue rising from $1.73B to $2.24B and 3 of 4 earnings beats. Growth breakdown | Quarterly revenue should stay above $2.0B and earnings should keep beating estimates over 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe April 2026 quarter was a 4% EPS miss and revenue fell sequentially from $2.41B to $2.24B, hinting growth may be peaking. | ||
Forward P/E is 8.3x with a PEG of 0.13, and the $26.97 analyst target implies 20.7% upside from $22.34 against 7.6% downside. Valuation breakdown | Price should move toward the $26.97 analyst target as earnings are delivered over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterLow multiples on gold miners reflect commodity-price risk, and the analyst coverage is light, dampening the target's reliability. | ||
Earnings are due in 4 days with implied volatility of 62%, creating event risk right as the stock sits in a downtrend. Next earnings date | The coming report should deliver EPS above the estimate of roughly $0.7 and sustain the beat streak. | →Stable |
| CounterWith a miss in one of the last four quarters and guidance unknown, a disappointing print could break near-term support. | ||
Momentum scores only 3.3/10 with price below the 200-day average, falling OBV and a 43% drawdown, so the trend is still down.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should reclaim the 200-day average and momentum should recover above 4.5 within 12 months.
CounterA death cross with a falling 30-day slope of -1.6% can persist for months, and recovery setups often fail.
Quality scores 9.5/10 with 37% ROE, 38% margins, a wide moat and a 9/9 Piotroski F-Score, marking a high-quality gold producer.
↓DeterioratingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- ROE should stay above 25% and margins above 30% over the next 12 months.
CounterGold-miner margins are driven by the gold price, so peak-cycle profitability can look like durable quality and reverse if gold falls.
Revenue and earnings are growing about 30% YoY, with quarterly revenue rising from $1.73B to $2.24B and 3 of 4 earnings beats.
↓DeterioratingGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue should stay above $2.0B and earnings should keep beating estimates over 12 months.
CounterThe April 2026 quarter was a 4% EPS miss and revenue fell sequentially from $2.41B to $2.24B, hinting growth may be peaking.
Forward P/E is 8.3x with a PEG of 0.13, and the $26.97 analyst target implies 20.7% upside from $22.34 against 7.6% downside.
↑ImprovingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should move toward the $26.97 analyst target as earnings are delivered over the next 12 months.
CounterLow multiples on gold miners reflect commodity-price risk, and the analyst coverage is light, dampening the target's reliability.
Earnings are due in 4 days with implied volatility of 62%, creating event risk right as the stock sits in a downtrend.
→StableNext earnings date
- Expectation
- The coming report should deliver EPS above the estimate of roughly $0.7 and sustain the beat streak.
CounterWith a miss in one of the last four quarters and guidance unknown, a disappointing print could break near-term support.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 9.7 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 9.6 |
| FCF quality | 5.8 |
| Moat | 7.2 |
| Rule of 40 | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 35%
- ▸Strong margins: 38%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 78% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
2.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.1 |
| EPS growth | 2.4 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -2%
Momentum
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 2.1 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 10.0 |
| vol acceleration | 8.2 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend
- ▸Volume surge (2.1x avg) on up move
Sentiment
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.0 |
| Price target | 9.4 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (10.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 45%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
5.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.1 |
| quality rank | 7.7 |
| growth rank | 0.3 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.3 |
| support resistance | 6.4 |
| 52w position | 1.0 |
| gap | 3.0 |
- ▸Extreme gap up (5.7%) - may pull back
Risk (lower is worse)
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 8.6 |
| volatility | 0.8 |
| put call | 9.2 |
| implied vol | 3.5 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 4.9 |
| debt equity | 9.7 |
- ▸Above max pain $16
Catalyst
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.9 |
| dividend safety | 6.8 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Deep value: 60% margin of safety. Extreme undervaluation.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_A_DEEP_VALUEPassed (10)
- MOMENTUM:5.8>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:2.8>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- DEATH_CROSS:QUALITY_MOMENTUM_EXEMPT
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:105d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- SECTOR_CONCENTRATION_CAP:sector=Basic Materials:1/3
Failed (0)
none
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:quality=8.7>=7.5+momentum=5.8>=5.0 exempted
Reward-to-Risk
2.76
Upside
+25.8%
Downside
9.4%
Sizing output
HALF
SetupFalling Knife — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 35, MACD bearish
EdgeSector Rotation — Basic Materials sector out of favor, value=9.4
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -45% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The STRONG_BUY_NOW verdict reflects clean gate clearance against Value at 9.4 and asymmetric R:R of 2.76.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.4, Quality at 8.7, and Sentiment at 7.2; the weakest are Growth at 2.2, Technical at 4.4, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.76 and an engine sizing output of HALF.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Elite Business Quality
Trip ifROE falls below 20% from the current 37%.
- P2Strong Growth And Beats
Trip ifQuarterly revenue falls below $1.8B from the current $2.24B.
- P3Cheap Valuation With Target Upside
Trip ifShare price drops to $19.99 or below, the stop-loss level.
- P4Confirmed Downtrend Weak Momentum
Trip ifShare price stays below the 200-day moving average for more than 6 months.
- P5Earnings Event Risk Near
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.