Value
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.8 |
| P/S | 4.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.4 |
| PEG | 9.2 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 23.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.63
KEYS · Why this verdict
Why Keysight Technologies (KEYS) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Keysight Technologies is a high-quality business with a wide economic moat, strong margins, and 32% revenue growth, but the stock is trading above its near-term price target with negative effective upside, making the current setup unattractive despite the underlying franchise's merits.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue grew 32% year over year and the most recent quarter delivered a 23.69% positive earnings surprise — a meaningful step-up from the two prior beats — placing the company at the top of its peer group for growth momentum. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth rate stays above 15% year over year for 2 consecutive quarters, sustaining the company's peer-leading growth position. | →Stable |
| CounterThe prior earnings miss of 19% shows that a single soft quarter can sharply reverse the growth narrative; if demand in end markets softens, the 30%-plus growth rate may prove a high-water mark rather than a sustainable run rate. | ||
The company combines a wide economic moat with strong margins of 17%, a near-perfect financial health score (9 out of 9 Piotroski), and compounding-quality characteristics — indicating durable earnings power well above typical peers in the scientific instruments sector. Quality breakdown | Gross and operating margins remain above 15% for 4 consecutive quarters, confirming the durability of the quality profile. | →Stable |
| CounterA 19% earnings miss in the oldest reported quarter demonstrates the business is not immune to cyclical demand swings; the moat may not prevent periodic revenue compression during down cycles. | ||
At a forward P/E of 30.1x with the stock already above its near-term price target, the current setup offers no effective upside and carries a negative risk/reward — the market is pricing in an optimistic scenario with no cushion for disappointment. Warnings | Forward P/E compresses below 22x as earnings growth outpaces the stock price, restoring a margin of safety. | ↑Improving |
| CounterPremium multiples are defensible for businesses with wide moats and 30%-plus growth; sustained earnings-estimate upgrades could compress the multiple naturally through earnings growth without requiring a price correction. | ||
Rising on-balance volume alongside a price positioned above the 200-day moving average suggests institutional accumulation is underway — a condition that, if sustained, tends to support continued price appreciation. Momentum breakdown | On-balance volume continues trending upward for 3 consecutive months, confirming ongoing institutional engagement. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock is trading near its 52-week high, technically extended; one soft earnings quarter — as occurred in the oldest reported period — can sharply reset expectations and quickly reverse accumulation signals. | ||
Revenue grew 32% year over year and the most recent quarter delivered a 23.69% positive earnings surprise — a meaningful step-up from the two prior beats — placing the company at the top of its peer group for growth momentum.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth rate stays above 15% year over year for 2 consecutive quarters, sustaining the company's peer-leading growth position.
CounterThe prior earnings miss of 19% shows that a single soft quarter can sharply reverse the growth narrative; if demand in end markets softens, the 30%-plus growth rate may prove a high-water mark rather than a sustainable run rate.
The company combines a wide economic moat with strong margins of 17%, a near-perfect financial health score (9 out of 9 Piotroski), and compounding-quality characteristics — indicating durable earnings power well above typical peers in the scientific instruments sector.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Gross and operating margins remain above 15% for 4 consecutive quarters, confirming the durability of the quality profile.
CounterA 19% earnings miss in the oldest reported quarter demonstrates the business is not immune to cyclical demand swings; the moat may not prevent periodic revenue compression during down cycles.
At a forward P/E of 30.1x with the stock already above its near-term price target, the current setup offers no effective upside and carries a negative risk/reward — the market is pricing in an optimistic scenario with no cushion for disappointment.
↑ImprovingWarnings
- Expectation
- Forward P/E compresses below 22x as earnings growth outpaces the stock price, restoring a margin of safety.
CounterPremium multiples are defensible for businesses with wide moats and 30%-plus growth; sustained earnings-estimate upgrades could compress the multiple naturally through earnings growth without requiring a price correction.
Rising on-balance volume alongside a price positioned above the 200-day moving average suggests institutional accumulation is underway — a condition that, if sustained, tends to support continued price appreciation.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- On-balance volume continues trending upward for 3 consecutive months, confirming ongoing institutional engagement.
CounterThe stock is trading near its 52-week high, technically extended; one soft earnings quarter — as occurred in the oldest reported period — can sharply reset expectations and quickly reverse accumulation signals.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 7.0 |
| ROA | 5.2 |
| Gross margin | 8.9 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 9.6 |
| Current ratio | 7.1 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 8.2 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong margins: 19%
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 153% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 36% YoY
Momentum
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 8.1 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Oversold in uptrend (RSI 29)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.5 |
| Analyst rating | 7.1 |
| Price target | 8.5 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.50 (n=1)
- ▸Analyst upside: 29%
Insider
3.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 3.8 |
| notable moves | 3.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $2,268,720 (0.004% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.5 |
| quality rank | 7.9 |
| growth rank | 9.4 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.4 |
| support resistance | 7.4 |
| 52w position | 7.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.0 |
| days to cover | 8.2 |
| volatility | 3.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 6.1 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 6.2 |
| debt equity | 8.3 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
Catalyst
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 9.9 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.63, quality 8.4/10, growth 10.0/10).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_C2_GARP_WAIT|ENTRY_STICKY:PRIOR_STILL_VIABLEPassed (5)
- ASYMMETRY:1.6>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:82d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.4<4.5
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
1.58
Upside
+12.0%
Downside
7.6%
Sizing output
STARTER
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The C-path quality+growth combination triggered the STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict: quality 8.4 and growth 10.0 both clear their thresholds, with asymmetric R:R of 1.58 supporting the read.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Quality at 8.4, and Sentiment at 7.7; the weakest are Insider at 3.9, Momentum at 4.4, and Value at 5.1. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.58 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Wide Moat Franchise Quality
Trip ifGross margin falls below 14% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Strong Revenue Growth Acceleration
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 15% year over year for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Valuation Stretch Above Target
Trip ifForward P/E compresses below 22x as earnings growth outpaces price appreciation.
- P4Volume Accumulation Trend
Trip ifOn-balance volume falls below its prior 8-week average for 8 consecutive weeks.