Value
6.3/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.7 |
| P/S | 6.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.3 |
| PEG | 4.7 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 14.2x
- ▸PEG: 1.77
JPM · Why this verdict
Why JP Morgan Chase & (JPM) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
A profitable banking franchise with strong margins (34%) and positive price momentum has traded past its near-term resistance target, leaving the risk/reward unfavorable for new exposure; the quality of the earnings track record and margin profile support holding an existing position, but the setup does not favor adding at current levels.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
A confirmed golden cross, price trading above all major moving averages, an RSI of 61, a bullish MACD, and rising volume accumulation collectively indicate sustained buying pressure consistent with a breakout configuration. Engine gate (passed) | Price holds above its 200-day moving average and volume accumulation continues over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock has already surpassed its near-term resistance target, and the risk/reward is unfavorable at current levels; momentum that has overrun the target often consolidates or retraces when the near-term catalyst has fully played out. | ||
The company has beaten analyst estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with the most recent result a 7.78% upside beat — a solid track record of execution against Wall Street consensus. Earnings | Earnings continue to beat consensus estimates over the next four quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterOne miss in the last four quarters (a -3.91% shortfall) breaks the consistency argument; if estimates are revised upward following recent beats, the cushion for future upside narrows and the execution track record may prove harder to sustain. | ||
Over the past 90 days, insiders have sold a net 220,202 shares with zero purchases — a one-sided pattern that signals insiders see limited near-term upside at current price levels. Insider | If insider sentiment turns more constructive, net purchases would emerge over the next two quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe insider selling severity is rated at none and no dollar value has been confirmed; a small count of sellers (17 transactions) at a large institution can reflect pre-scheduled disposition arrangements unrelated to a near-term bearish view, limiting the signal's informational value. | ||
Operating and net margins at 34% indicate a highly profitable franchise that generates substantial earnings relative to revenues, supporting the case for a quality core business. Quality breakdown | Margins hold at or above current levels over the next four quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe overall quality profile carries a penalty in defensive market regimes, reflecting a quality level that is moderate rather than high; if conditions deteriorate, margins at a moderate-quality institution may compress more than those of a genuinely high-quality franchise would, and the dividend data flags an elevated payout ratio that can if earnings soften leave less cushion. | ||
A confirmed golden cross, price trading above all major moving averages, an RSI of 61, a bullish MACD, and rising volume accumulation collectively indicate sustained buying pressure consistent with a breakout configuration.
→StableEngine gate (passed)
- Expectation
- Price holds above its 200-day moving average and volume accumulation continues over the next 12 months.
CounterThe stock has already surpassed its near-term resistance target, and the risk/reward is unfavorable at current levels; momentum that has overrun the target often consolidates or retraces when the near-term catalyst has fully played out.
The company has beaten analyst estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with the most recent result a 7.78% upside beat — a solid track record of execution against Wall Street consensus.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings continue to beat consensus estimates over the next four quarters.
CounterOne miss in the last four quarters (a -3.91% shortfall) breaks the consistency argument; if estimates are revised upward following recent beats, the cushion for future upside narrows and the execution track record may prove harder to sustain.
Over the past 90 days, insiders have sold a net 220,202 shares with zero purchases — a one-sided pattern that signals insiders see limited near-term upside at current price levels.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- If insider sentiment turns more constructive, net purchases would emerge over the next two quarters.
CounterThe insider selling severity is rated at none and no dollar value has been confirmed; a small count of sellers (17 transactions) at a large institution can reflect pre-scheduled disposition arrangements unrelated to a near-term bearish view, limiting the signal's informational value.
Operating and net margins at 34% indicate a highly profitable franchise that generates substantial earnings relative to revenues, supporting the case for a quality core business.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Margins hold at or above current levels over the next four quarters.
CounterThe overall quality profile carries a penalty in defensive market regimes, reflecting a quality level that is moderate rather than high; if conditions deteriorate, margins at a moderate-quality institution may compress more than those of a genuinely high-quality franchise would, and the dividend data flags an elevated payout ratio that can if earnings soften leave less cushion.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.5 |
| ROA | 0.8 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.9 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Strong margins: 34%
Growth
5.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.7 |
| EPS growth | 5.4 |
Momentum
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.2 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 2.0 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 76)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.7 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 5.4 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.34 (n=5)
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $69,015,555 (0.008% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.1 |
| quality rank | 7.4 |
| growth rank | 5.9 |
Technical
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.5 |
| support resistance | 1.1 |
| 52w position | 9.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.5 |
| days to cover | 7.4 |
| volatility | 6.6 |
| put call | 5.8 |
| implied vol | 7.0 |
| beta | 7.0 |
| news risk | 5.0 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.8 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend: 180.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.2>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:19d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.7=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.2<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.67
Upside
-7.7%
Downside
11.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeCATALYST — Earnings in 19d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:5.2>=4.5. Top dim: Risk (lower is worse) at 6.9; weakest: Technical at 4.1. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 6.9, Sentiment at 6.6, and Value at 6.3; the weakest are Technical at 4.1, Insider at 5.0, and Peer rank at 5.1. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.67 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1A confirmed golden cross, price trading above all major moving averages, an RSI of 61, a bullish MACD, and rising volume accumulation collectively indicate sustained buying pressure consistent with a breakout configuration.
Trip ifRSI falls below 40 for 2 consecutive weeks.
- P2The company has beaten analyst estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with the most recent result a 7.78% upside beat — a solid track record of execution against Wall Street consensus.
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Over the past 90 days, insiders have sold a net 220,202 shares with zero purchases — a one-sided pattern that signals insiders see limited near-term upside at current price levels.
Trip ifNet insider share purchases exceed 0 in any 90-day rolling window.
- P4Operating and net margins at 34% indicate a highly profitable franchise that generates substantial earnings relative to revenues, supporting the case for a quality core business.
Trip ifNet margin falls below 20% for 2 consecutive quarters.