Value
9.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.6 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.8 |
| PEG | 9.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 6.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.67
- ▸Attractively valued
JD · Why this verdict
Why JD.com (JD) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
With potential upside of 32.8% to the analyst target and a risk/reward ratio of roughly 6-to-1 in favor of buyers, the setup offers an unusually wide margin between potential reward and defined risk. Price targets | Price advances at least 15% toward the analyst target within 12 months while the reward-to-risk profile stays above 1.5-to-1. | →Stable |
| CounterA wide gap between price and analyst target is not itself a catalyst; with negative momentum and price below its long-term average, a favorable ratio can persist unresolved for an extended period. | ||
At a forward multiple of 6.6 times earnings and a PEG of 0.92, the shares are attractively priced relative to growth and offer 32.8% headroom to the analyst consensus target. Valuation breakdown | The discount to analyst targets narrows as earnings hold and the multiple expands closer to peers over the next four quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterA confirmed absence of competitive moat means the low multiple may reflect a structural discount rather than temporary mispricing; without pricing power, cheap multiples can persist indefinitely. | ||
Three of the last four quarters delivered positive earnings surprises, including a 40.75% beat in the most recent quarter, suggesting execution has improved following a prior-period miss. Earnings | The positive earnings surprise average remains above zero for the next two quarters, extending the improving delivery track record. | →Stable |
| CounterThe prior quarter's miss was severe at -139.21% below consensus, indicating earnings visibility is low; a single large miss can erase the benefit of multiple beats on an average-surprise basis. | ||
Institutional holders are net increasing their positions and on-balance volume is rising, suggesting professional capital is absorbing supply even while the shares trade below their long-term moving average. Insider breakdown | Net institutional ownership continues to grow and price stabilizes above current levels over the next two quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterRising volume while price sits below the 200-day average is an early and unconfirmed signal; institutions may be averaging into a declining trend rather than positioning ahead of a catalyst. | ||
With potential upside of 32.8% to the analyst target and a risk/reward ratio of roughly 6-to-1 in favor of buyers, the setup offers an unusually wide margin between potential reward and defined risk.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- Price advances at least 15% toward the analyst target within 12 months while the reward-to-risk profile stays above 1.5-to-1.
CounterA wide gap between price and analyst target is not itself a catalyst; with negative momentum and price below its long-term average, a favorable ratio can persist unresolved for an extended period.
At a forward multiple of 6.6 times earnings and a PEG of 0.92, the shares are attractively priced relative to growth and offer 32.8% headroom to the analyst consensus target.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The discount to analyst targets narrows as earnings hold and the multiple expands closer to peers over the next four quarters.
CounterA confirmed absence of competitive moat means the low multiple may reflect a structural discount rather than temporary mispricing; without pricing power, cheap multiples can persist indefinitely.
Three of the last four quarters delivered positive earnings surprises, including a 40.75% beat in the most recent quarter, suggesting execution has improved following a prior-period miss.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The positive earnings surprise average remains above zero for the next two quarters, extending the improving delivery track record.
CounterThe prior quarter's miss was severe at -139.21% below consensus, indicating earnings visibility is low; a single large miss can erase the benefit of multiple beats on an average-surprise basis.
Institutional holders are net increasing their positions and on-balance volume is rising, suggesting professional capital is absorbing supply even while the shares trade below their long-term moving average.
→StableInsider breakdown
- Expectation
- Net institutional ownership continues to grow and price stabilizes above current levels over the next two quarters.
CounterRising volume while price sits below the 200-day average is an early and unconfirmed signal; institutions may be averaging into a declining trend rather than positioning ahead of a catalyst.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
JD.com trades at 6.6 times forward earnings with a PEG near 1.0 and 32.8% headroom to the analyst target—an asymmetric value setup at roughly 6-to-1 reward-to-risk that demands patience given confirmed quality shortfalls and negative price momentum.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.5 |
| Net margin | 0.5 |
| Current ratio | 4.5 |
| FCF quality | 4.0 |
| Moat | 4.5 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 51% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
1.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.7 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
Momentum
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 3.4 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 2.9 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
8.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 9.0 |
| Price target | 9.5 |
| erm sentiment | 5.1 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 50%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.2 |
| quality rank | 1.8 |
| growth rank | 1.9 |
Technical
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.2 |
| support resistance | 6.0 |
| 52w position | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.8 |
| days to cover | 7.0 |
| volatility | 6.0 |
| put call | 7.9 |
| implied vol | 4.5 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 8.5 |
Catalyst
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend: 376.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:4.9>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:39d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.2<4.5
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
4.89
Upside
+38.0%
Downside
7.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Value at 9.1 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:4.2<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.1, Sentiment at 8.1, and Risk (lower is worse) at 7.5; the weakest are Growth at 1.9, Quality at 2.3, and Peer rank at 3.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 4.89 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Deep Value Low Forward Multiple
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target falls below $30 for 2 consecutive quarters, eliminating most of the current upside and signaling deteriorating earnings outlook.
- P2Earnings Beat Recovery Most Recent
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Institutional Accumulation Signal
Trip ifNet institutional ownership falls more than 5% for 2 consecutive quarters, reversing the accumulation signal.
- P4Favorable Asymmetry Six To One
Trip ifUpside to the analyst target compresses below 10% for 4 consecutive weeks without a corresponding target upgrade.