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JD.com, Inc. (JD) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Internet Retail

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $30.05: Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10 and A.R:R 2.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

JD.com, Inc. operates as a supply chain-based technology and service provider in the People's Republic of China and Europe. It operates through three segments: JD Retail, JD Logistics, and New Businesses. The company provides home appliances; mobile handsets and other digital... Read more

$30.05+21.6% A.UpsideScore 4.9/10#15 of 18 Internet Retail
Stop $28.62Target $36.50(analyst − 8%)A.R:R 2.2:1
Analyst target$39.67+32.0%36 analysts
$36.50our TP
$30.05price
$39.67mean
$25
$61

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $30.05: Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10 and A.R:R 2.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 59 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0)
Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-22.6% YoY), Margin compression (op margin 3.0%)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)15.7
P/E (Fwd)7.1
Mkt Cap$40.6B
EV/EBITDA3.3
Profit Mgn1.5%
ROE7.6%
Rev Growth1.5%
Beta0.37
Dividend3.37%
Rating analysts32

Quality Signals

Piotroski F5/9

Options Flow

P/C0.62bullish
IV56%elevated
Max Pain$15-50.1% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Roa
0.2
Net Margin
0.8
Roe
2.5
Current Ratio
4.7
Moat
5.0
Piotroski F
5.6
Earnings quality RED FLAG: -53% FCF/NINo competitive moatQuality concerns

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
2.9
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Macd
0.6
Obv
1.0
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
8.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-MA but MA slope flat

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
1.5
Growth Rank
1.7
Value Rank
8.8
Attractive P/E vs peers
GatesMomentum 3.0<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 12d<=14d (soft)A.R:R 2.2 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
59 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $27.09Resistance $32.05

Price Targets

$29
$37
A.Upside+21.5%
A.R:R2.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-22.6% YoY), Margin compression (op margin 3.0%)
! Momentum score 3.0/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-12 (12d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is JD stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $30.05: Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10 and A.R:R 2.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 59 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $28.62. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the JD stock price target?

Take-profit target: $36.50 (+21.6% upside). Prior stop was $28.62. Stop-loss: $28.62.

What are the risks of investing in JD?

Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-22.6% YoY), Margin compression (op margin 3.0%).

Is JD overvalued or undervalued?

JD.com, Inc. trades at a P/E of 15.7 (forward 7.1). TrendMatrix value score: 8.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about JD?

32 analysts cover JD with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $40.

What does JD.com, Inc. do?JD.com, Inc. operates as a supply chain-based technology and service provider in the People's Republic of China and...

JD.com, Inc. operates as a supply chain-based technology and service provider in the People's Republic of China and Europe. It operates through three segments: JD Retail, JD Logistics, and New Businesses. The company provides home appliances; mobile handsets and other digital products; computers, including desktop, laptop, and other various products, as well as printers and other office equipment; furniture and household goods; apparel; cosmetics and other personal care items; and pet products. It offers women's shoes, bags, watches, jewelry, and luxury goods; men's shoes, sports gear, and fitness equipment; automobiles and accessories; maternal and childcare products; toys and musical instruments; food, beverages, and fresh produce; gifts, flowers, and plants; and pharmaceutical and healthcare products, such as OCT pharmaceutical products, nutritional supplements, healthcare services, and other healthcare equipment. In addition, the company provides books, e-books, music, movies, and other media products; virtual goods consisting of online travel agency, attraction tickets, and prepaid phone cards and game cards; industrial products; and installation and maintenance services. Further, it offers online marketplace services for third-party merchants; marketing services; and omni-channel solutions to customers and offline retailers, as well as online healthcare services. Additionally, the company develops, owns, and manages its logistics facilities and other real estate properties to support third parties; and offers asset management services and integrated service platform; leasing of storage facilities and related management services, as well as engages in online retail business; technology-driven supply chain solutions; and logistics services. The company was formerly known as 360buy Jingdong Inc. and changed its name to JD.com, Inc. in January 2014. JD.com, Inc. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.

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