Value
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.9 |
| P/S | 9.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.3 |
| PEG | 8.6 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 20.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.74
JBL · Why this verdict
Why Jabil (JBL) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The business carries one high-severity and two medium-severity concentration risks tied to single-source component dependencies, which constrains the quality profile and introduces supply disruption vulnerability that cannot be fully offset by operational efficiency. Risk breakdown | At least one of the three concentration risk designations is downgraded in severity in the next annual risk disclosure, signaling meaningful supply-chain diversification. | →Stable |
| CounterSingle-source vendor relationships often reflect long-standing contractual arrangements that are structurally stable in practice; the historical continuity of these relationships may make the concentration flag more theoretical than operational. | ||
The company has beaten consensus estimates in each of the past four quarters with an average positive surprise of approximately 12%, suggesting a management team that consistently under-promises and over-delivers on execution. Earnings | Earnings per share surprise remains above 5% for at least two additional consecutive quarters, sustaining the track record of outperformance. | →Stable |
| CounterA four-quarter beat streak raises the likelihood that analyst estimates have been recalibrated upward, compressing the surprise buffer; the upcoming print in one day could easily come in below the newly elevated bar. | ||
With the stock trading just 1.4% below the analyst-derived resistance target, the near-term upside case is effectively exhausted and the setup no longer favors new entry at current levels. Price targets | Analyst consensus raises the price target by at least 15% within one quarter following an earnings catalyst, reopening meaningful upside to a fresh resistance level. | →Stable |
| CounterStrong earnings beats have historically led to swift upward target revisions; if the upcoming report surprises to the upside, the ceiling may lift quickly, making the current price look like a base rather than a top. | ||
Earnings reporting in one day, combined with implied volatility near 94%, creates a binary event setup; the options market is pricing a wide range of outcomes, and with only 1.4% of upside to target, any negative surprise quickly tips the risk/reward negative. Warnings | Implied volatility compresses below 50% within ten trading days as the earnings event is absorbed without a major negative surprise. | →Stable |
| CounterThe company's four-quarter beat streak provides a credible base for a positive outcome; realized volatility on past earnings events may have been materially lower than what the current options market implies. | ||
The business carries one high-severity and two medium-severity concentration risks tied to single-source component dependencies, which constrains the quality profile and introduces supply disruption vulnerability that cannot be fully offset by operational efficiency.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- At least one of the three concentration risk designations is downgraded in severity in the next annual risk disclosure, signaling meaningful supply-chain diversification.
CounterSingle-source vendor relationships often reflect long-standing contractual arrangements that are structurally stable in practice; the historical continuity of these relationships may make the concentration flag more theoretical than operational.
The company has beaten consensus estimates in each of the past four quarters with an average positive surprise of approximately 12%, suggesting a management team that consistently under-promises and over-delivers on execution.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings per share surprise remains above 5% for at least two additional consecutive quarters, sustaining the track record of outperformance.
CounterA four-quarter beat streak raises the likelihood that analyst estimates have been recalibrated upward, compressing the surprise buffer; the upcoming print in one day could easily come in below the newly elevated bar.
With the stock trading just 1.4% below the analyst-derived resistance target, the near-term upside case is effectively exhausted and the setup no longer favors new entry at current levels.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- Analyst consensus raises the price target by at least 15% within one quarter following an earnings catalyst, reopening meaningful upside to a fresh resistance level.
CounterStrong earnings beats have historically led to swift upward target revisions; if the upcoming report surprises to the upside, the ceiling may lift quickly, making the current price look like a base rather than a top.
Earnings reporting in one day, combined with implied volatility near 94%, creates a binary event setup; the options market is pricing a wide range of outcomes, and with only 1.4% of upside to target, any negative surprise quickly tips the risk/reward negative.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- Implied volatility compresses below 50% within ten trading days as the earnings event is absorbed without a major negative surprise.
CounterThe company's four-quarter beat streak provides a credible base for a positive outcome; realized volatility on past earnings events may have been materially lower than what the current options market implies.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Four consecutive quarters of double-digit earnings upside surprises demonstrate consistent execution, but the stock has essentially reached its analyst-derived price target with only 1.4% of headroom remaining; with earnings reporting in one day and implied volatility near 94%, the binary event risk eliminates meaningful reward relative to potential downside.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 3.3 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 2.1 |
| Net margin | 1.3 |
| Current ratio | 3.9 |
| FCF quality | 9.7 |
| Moat | 6.0 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 66%
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 141% FCF/NI
Growth
6.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.4 |
| EPS growth | 7.5 |
Momentum
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 7.9 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 1.5 |
- ▸Uptrend pullback (RSI 36) - buy opportunity
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.5 |
| Analyst rating | 6.9 |
| Price target | 8.5 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (9.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 29%
Insider
3.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $13,197,602 (0.037% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.4 |
| quality rank | 6.4 |
| growth rank | 3.1 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
8.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 10.0 |
| support resistance | 9.7 |
| 52w position | 5.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.3 |
| days to cover | 8.2 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 7.6 |
| implied vol | 1.9 |
| beta | 5.9 |
| debt equity | 2.0 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸High IV: 69%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 2 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.6 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 9.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:4.7>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:83d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:1.0<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.7<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
0.99
Upside
+12.5%
Downside
12.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.1 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Technical at 8.5) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:1.0<1.5@spot) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.99 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 8.5, Sentiment at 7.2, and Growth at 6.5; the weakest are Insider at 3.9, Peer rank at 4.2, and Momentum at 4.7. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.99 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Sustained Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in any single quarter, breaking the consecutive beat streak.
- P2Price At Target No Headroom
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target is raised to more than 15% above the current price within 1 quarter, reopening meaningful upside.
- P3Binary Event Elevated Implied Vol
Trip ifImplied volatility falls below 40% within 10 trading days of the earnings release, indicating the binary event passed without materializing the downside scenario.
- P4Concentration Supply Chain Risk
Trip ifConcentration risk count falls to 0 high-severity items in the next 10-K Item 1A risk disclosure.