Value
3.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 6.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| p ocf | 4.4 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸P/OCF: 25.8x (FFO proxy — REITs gated off P/E)
IRM · Why this verdict
Why Iron Mountain Incorporated (Del (IRM) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Iron Mountain is posting 22% year-over-year revenue growth with three consecutive earnings beats, but free cash flow is negative, the stock has nearly reached near-term resistance with only 0.8% headroom, and a potentially uncovered dividend yield creates a yield-trap risk for income-seeking investors.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue grew 22% year-over-year, a rate that sits well above typical real estate investment trust norms and reflects meaningful expansion in the company's storage and data management businesses. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth remains above 15% year-over-year for at least 2 consecutive reported quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterStrong top-line growth has not translated into positive free cash flow; the business is generating negative free cash flow at -183% of net income, meaning the growth is being funded by cash the company does not retain. | ||
Free cash flow is negative, running at -183% of net income, meaning the company is not converting earnings into cash; at an operating cash flow multiple of 25.4x, investors are paying a premium for a business that is currently cash-consumptive. Quality breakdown | FCF-to-net-income conversion turns positive and sustains above 50% for 2 consecutive reported quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterSpecialty REITs often carry elevated capital expenditure cycles; if the investment phase matures, cash conversion can improve substantially and the operating cash flow multiple would look more reasonable in retrospect. | ||
The share price sits just below near-term resistance with only approximately 0.8% headroom remaining to the target, producing a reward-to-risk ratio of roughly 0.15-to-1 — well below any reasonable threshold for adding exposure at current levels. Price targets | The reward-to-risk ratio improves above 1.5-to-1 through either a pullback in the share price or a significant upward revision in the resistance target. | →Stable |
| CounterA catalyst — such as stronger-than-expected earnings or a strategic announcement — could break the stock above resistance and render the near-term geometry immediately stale. | ||
The dividend yield is flagged as potentially uncovered, creating a yield-trap risk where investors are drawn to the income profile without appreciating that the payout may not be sustainably supported by free cash flow. Catalyst breakdown | Free cash flow turns positive and covers the dividend by at least 1.0x for 2 consecutive reported periods. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterReal estate investment trusts are valued on funds from operations rather than free cash flow, and the dividend coverage may look adequate on an FFO basis even when statutory free cash flow is negative. | ||
Revenue grew 22% year-over-year, a rate that sits well above typical real estate investment trust norms and reflects meaningful expansion in the company's storage and data management businesses.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth remains above 15% year-over-year for at least 2 consecutive reported quarters.
CounterStrong top-line growth has not translated into positive free cash flow; the business is generating negative free cash flow at -183% of net income, meaning the growth is being funded by cash the company does not retain.
Free cash flow is negative, running at -183% of net income, meaning the company is not converting earnings into cash; at an operating cash flow multiple of 25.4x, investors are paying a premium for a business that is currently cash-consumptive.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF-to-net-income conversion turns positive and sustains above 50% for 2 consecutive reported quarters.
CounterSpecialty REITs often carry elevated capital expenditure cycles; if the investment phase matures, cash conversion can improve substantially and the operating cash flow multiple would look more reasonable in retrospect.
The share price sits just below near-term resistance with only approximately 0.8% headroom remaining to the target, producing a reward-to-risk ratio of roughly 0.15-to-1 — well below any reasonable threshold for adding exposure at current levels.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- The reward-to-risk ratio improves above 1.5-to-1 through either a pullback in the share price or a significant upward revision in the resistance target.
CounterA catalyst — such as stronger-than-expected earnings or a strategic announcement — could break the stock above resistance and render the near-term geometry immediately stale.
The dividend yield is flagged as potentially uncovered, creating a yield-trap risk where investors are drawn to the income profile without appreciating that the payout may not be sustainably supported by free cash flow.
↓DeterioratingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow turns positive and covers the dividend by at least 1.0x for 2 consecutive reported periods.
CounterReal estate investment trusts are valued on funds from operations rather than free cash flow, and the dividend coverage may look adequate on an FFO basis even when statutory free cash flow is negative.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 3.0 |
| Gross margin | 7.0 |
| Op margin | 8.4 |
| Net margin | 1.9 |
| Current ratio | 3.1 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 7.0 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -183% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
7.9/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.9 |
- ▸Strong growth: 22% YoY
Momentum
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 2.5 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 80)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.0 |
| Price target | 5.5 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $18,115,672 (0.047% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.6 |
| quality rank | 0.0 |
| growth rank | 7.1 |
Technical
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.0 |
| support resistance | 2.8 |
| 52w position | 9.1 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.1 |
| days to cover | 6.7 |
| volatility | 4.7 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 5.1 |
| beta | 6.1 |
Catalyst
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.7 |
| dividend safety | 2.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Earnings in 11 days
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULTPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:7.1>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.9=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:11d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.91
Upside
-9.9%
Downside
10.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 11d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: MOMENTUM:7.1>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 7.9; weakest: Peer rank at 3.9. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 7.9, Momentum at 7.1, and Risk (lower is worse) at 6.8; the weakest are Peer rank at 3.9, Value at 3.9, and Catalyst at 4.7. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.91 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Revenue Growth Trajectory
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 10% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Negative Free Cash Flow Red Flag
Trip ifFCF-to-net-income conversion rises above 50% and stays there for 2 consecutive reported quarters.
- P3Stock At Near Term Resistance
Trip ifShare price breaks above $130 on above-average volume, clearing the resistance level and resetting the reward/risk geometry.
- P4Dividend Yield Trap Risk
Trip ifFree cash flow turns positive and covers the dividend payout by more than 1.0x for 2 consecutive reported periods.