Value
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.7 |
| P/S | 8.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.0 |
| PEG | 1.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 21.4x
- ▸PEG: 9.30
IPAR · Why this verdict
Why Interparfums (IPAR) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The business achieves a perfect Piotroski score of 9 out of 9, with strong gross and operating margins and healthy free cash flow conversion, placing it among the higher-quality franchises in the consumer defensive space and providing a durable foundation even during periods of slower growth. Quality breakdown | Quality score remains above 7.0 for the next 4 quarters, with gross and operating margins holding at or above current levels. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh Piotroski scores can reflect past-period profitability rather than forward earnings power; if revenue softens — particularly given a low growth score — margin compression could erode quality metrics faster than the score currently signals. | ||
With 68% of operations based in Europe, the business carries substantial geographic concentration risk; currency movements, regulatory changes, or regional demand softness could disproportionately impact revenue and margins without effective diversification to offset it. Bear case | European revenue contribution falls below 55% of total revenue for 2 consecutive quarters, reflecting meaningful geographic diversification into other markets. | →Stable |
| CounterA dominant European base in the fragrance and prestige beauty industry may reflect strategic positioning in the highest-margin global market rather than a structural vulnerability; European consumer demand for premium fragrances has historically shown resilience across economic cycles. | ||
Three consecutive positive earnings surprises in the most recent three quarters — with beats averaging roughly 11% above estimates and a full-year average positive surprise of about 6.4% — indicate the business is consistently delivering ahead of expectations, a pattern that typically supports multiple expansion over time. Earnings | EPS surprise remains positive for at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, sustaining the beat cadence that the most recent track record has established. | →Stable |
| CounterThree beats in a row can reflect a period of conservatively set guidance rather than accelerating operational performance; if external demand conditions in the fragrance market soften, the guidance discipline that produced the beats may not be sustainable. | ||
With the stock just below the short-term resistance target and only about 1.7% of headroom remaining, the reward-to-risk ratio has compressed to 0.25, meaning the available upside is a fraction of the potential downside; the setup does not justify adding to or initiating a position at these levels. Price targets | The reward-to-risk ratio improves above 1.5 as the stock retreats more than 10% from current levels, opening meaningful distance to the resistance target and restoring a favorable entry geometry. | →Stable |
| CounterResistance levels are not fundamental ceilings; if the analyst community raises price targets on the back of continued earnings beats, the take-profit level itself could migrate higher, improving the risk/reward structure without requiring a price pullback. | ||
A critical event disclosed in a recent regulatory filing has triggered a hard gate failure in the quality assessment; until the nature and financial consequences of the disclosure are fully understood, this represents an unquantified downside risk layered on top of an already unfavorable risk/reward setup. Engine gate (failed) | The matter underlying the critical regulatory filing is resolved with no restatement of prior financials and no adverse revenue impact exceeding 5% of quarterly sales, and no additional critical filings are made over the next 4 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterNot every critical regulatory filing results in material financial consequences; if the disclosed event is administrative or involves a personnel or auditor change that the company has already managed, the market may absorb it without a meaningful re-rating. | ||
The business achieves a perfect Piotroski score of 9 out of 9, with strong gross and operating margins and healthy free cash flow conversion, placing it among the higher-quality franchises in the consumer defensive space and providing a durable foundation even during periods of slower growth.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Quality score remains above 7.0 for the next 4 quarters, with gross and operating margins holding at or above current levels.
CounterHigh Piotroski scores can reflect past-period profitability rather than forward earnings power; if revenue softens — particularly given a low growth score — margin compression could erode quality metrics faster than the score currently signals.
With 68% of operations based in Europe, the business carries substantial geographic concentration risk; currency movements, regulatory changes, or regional demand softness could disproportionately impact revenue and margins without effective diversification to offset it.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- European revenue contribution falls below 55% of total revenue for 2 consecutive quarters, reflecting meaningful geographic diversification into other markets.
CounterA dominant European base in the fragrance and prestige beauty industry may reflect strategic positioning in the highest-margin global market rather than a structural vulnerability; European consumer demand for premium fragrances has historically shown resilience across economic cycles.
Three consecutive positive earnings surprises in the most recent three quarters — with beats averaging roughly 11% above estimates and a full-year average positive surprise of about 6.4% — indicate the business is consistently delivering ahead of expectations, a pattern that typically supports multiple expansion over time.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS surprise remains positive for at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, sustaining the beat cadence that the most recent track record has established.
CounterThree beats in a row can reflect a period of conservatively set guidance rather than accelerating operational performance; if external demand conditions in the fragrance market soften, the guidance discipline that produced the beats may not be sustainable.
With the stock just below the short-term resistance target and only about 1.7% of headroom remaining, the reward-to-risk ratio has compressed to 0.25, meaning the available upside is a fraction of the potential downside; the setup does not justify adding to or initiating a position at these levels.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- The reward-to-risk ratio improves above 1.5 as the stock retreats more than 10% from current levels, opening meaningful distance to the resistance target and restoring a favorable entry geometry.
CounterResistance levels are not fundamental ceilings; if the analyst community raises price targets on the back of continued earnings beats, the take-profit level itself could migrate higher, improving the risk/reward structure without requiring a price pullback.
A critical event disclosed in a recent regulatory filing has triggered a hard gate failure in the quality assessment; until the nature and financial consequences of the disclosure are fully understood, this represents an unquantified downside risk layered on top of an already unfavorable risk/reward setup.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- The matter underlying the critical regulatory filing is resolved with no restatement of prior financials and no adverse revenue impact exceeding 5% of quarterly sales, and no additional critical filings are made over the next 4 quarters.
CounterNot every critical regulatory filing results in material financial consequences; if the disclosed event is administrative or involves a personnel or auditor change that the company has already managed, the market may absorb it without a meaningful re-rating.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
A high-quality franchise scoring 9 out of 9 on the Piotroski financial health scale and three consecutive earnings beats underpin a structurally sound business, but with the stock just below short-term resistance, the remaining upside of about 1.7% is dwarfed by the downside, and a critical regulatory filing event adds a near-term overhang that the setup does not compensate adequately.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 6.6 |
| ROA | 7.5 |
| Gross margin | 7.8 |
| Op margin | 8.6 |
| Net margin | 5.7 |
| Current ratio | 9.7 |
| FCF quality | 6.1 |
| Moat | 7.2 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
- ▸High-quality business
Growth
2.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.9 |
| EPS growth | 2.5 |
Momentum
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 7.5 |
| Volume | 2.4 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 80)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat/negative + RSI 80 (late-cycle distribution risk)
Sentiment
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.6 |
| Price target | 3.6 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (6.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.7 |
| quality rank | 7.4 |
| growth rank | 5.3 |
Technical
2.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.1 |
| 52w position | 7.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.6 |
| days to cover | 3.5 |
| volatility | 4.0 |
| put call | 8.9 |
| implied vol | 5.8 |
| beta | 6.4 |
| debt equity | 9.3 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.7 |
| dividend safety | 6.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend: 268.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.8>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:30d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.4=NEGATIVE
- 8K_CRITICAL:4.01
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.43
Upside
-21.4%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $3.8B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.2 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Quality at 7.7) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-1.4=NEGATIVE, 8K_CRITICAL:4.01) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -1.43 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 7.7, Momentum at 6.8, and Risk (lower is worse) at 6.2; the weakest are Technical at 2.6, Growth at 2.7, and Value at 4.4. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.43 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Quality Franchise Strong Financials
Trip ifQuality score falls below 6.0 for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Consistent Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below -5% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Geographic Concentration European Exposure
Trip ifEuropean revenue contribution falls below 55% of total revenue for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Price At Resistance Limited Upside
Trip ifReward-to-risk ratio rises above 1.5, supported by a price retreat of more than 10% from current levels.
- P5Critical Regulatory Filing Unresolved
Trip ifThe regulatory filing matter is fully resolved with no adverse financial impact exceeding 5% of quarterly revenue, and no additional critical filings are disclosed in the subsequent 4 quarters.