Value
8.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.1 |
| P/S | 9.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.5 |
| PEG | 6.2 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.4x
- ▸PEG: 1.19
- ▸Attractively valued
INGR · Why this verdict
Why Ingredion (INGR) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The stock trades below its 200-day moving average with the moving average slope declining at roughly 3% over the past 30 days, consistent with a confirmed downtrend—even as MACD is improving and on-balance volume is rising, signaling the trend has not yet reversed. Momentum breakdown | The stock reclaims its 200-day moving average and the slope turns flat or positive within 12 months, confirming trend stabilization. | →Stable |
| CounterImproving MACD and rising on-balance volume while below the 200-day average are early recovery signals; the death cross is already flagged as recovering, suggesting momentum may turn before price crosses the long-term average. | ||
The company has missed consensus EPS estimates in three of the last four quarters—most recently posting a 5.3% shortfall, preceded by a 3.1% and a 4.8% miss—suggesting analysts have not yet calibrated expectations to actual delivery capacity. Earnings | The miss streak reverses, with EPS meeting or beating consensus in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, indicating estimates have been sufficiently reset. | →Stable |
| CounterThree straight misses after one beat can reflect a structural inability to meet even lowered expectations; if revenues continue declining at roughly 1% annually, estimates may still be too high even after reductions. | ||
Trading at a forward P/E of roughly 8.7 times and a PEG ratio of 1.26, with analyst consensus implying approximately 21% upside, the stock offers a meaningful discount to intrinsic value estimates despite the near-term earnings headwinds. Bull case | The discount to analyst targets narrows by at least half within 12 months as execution stabilizes, converting the valuation cushion into price appreciation. | →Stable |
| CounterCheap multiples can persist indefinitely in businesses with declining revenues and serial earnings misses; a forward multiple is only as reliable as the forward earnings estimate, which has been consistently overstated in recent quarters. | ||
Two serious 8-K disclosure events (items 2.05 and 2.06) have been filed recently, introducing regulatory or material-event uncertainty that may weigh on investor confidence until the nature and consequences of those disclosures become clearer. Warnings | No additional serious 8-K filings over the next 12 months, allowing the disclosure overhang to dissipate and investor confidence to recover. | →Stable |
| Counter8-K filings under items 2.05 and 2.06 may reflect routine leadership or cost-structure changes rather than deeper operational distress; the disclosure requirement itself is the safeguard, and the market may have already absorbed the news. | ||
The stock trades below its 200-day moving average with the moving average slope declining at roughly 3% over the past 30 days, consistent with a confirmed downtrend—even as MACD is improving and on-balance volume is rising, signaling the trend has not yet reversed.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock reclaims its 200-day moving average and the slope turns flat or positive within 12 months, confirming trend stabilization.
CounterImproving MACD and rising on-balance volume while below the 200-day average are early recovery signals; the death cross is already flagged as recovering, suggesting momentum may turn before price crosses the long-term average.
The company has missed consensus EPS estimates in three of the last four quarters—most recently posting a 5.3% shortfall, preceded by a 3.1% and a 4.8% miss—suggesting analysts have not yet calibrated expectations to actual delivery capacity.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The miss streak reverses, with EPS meeting or beating consensus in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, indicating estimates have been sufficiently reset.
CounterThree straight misses after one beat can reflect a structural inability to meet even lowered expectations; if revenues continue declining at roughly 1% annually, estimates may still be too high even after reductions.
Trading at a forward P/E of roughly 8.7 times and a PEG ratio of 1.26, with analyst consensus implying approximately 21% upside, the stock offers a meaningful discount to intrinsic value estimates despite the near-term earnings headwinds.
→StableBull case
- Expectation
- The discount to analyst targets narrows by at least half within 12 months as execution stabilizes, converting the valuation cushion into price appreciation.
CounterCheap multiples can persist indefinitely in businesses with declining revenues and serial earnings misses; a forward multiple is only as reliable as the forward earnings estimate, which has been consistently overstated in recent quarters.
Two serious 8-K disclosure events (items 2.05 and 2.06) have been filed recently, introducing regulatory or material-event uncertainty that may weigh on investor confidence until the nature and consequences of those disclosures become clearer.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- No additional serious 8-K filings over the next 12 months, allowing the disclosure overhang to dissipate and investor confidence to recover.
Counter8-K filings under items 2.05 and 2.06 may reflect routine leadership or cost-structure changes rather than deeper operational distress; the disclosure requirement itself is the safeguard, and the market may have already absorbed the news.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Three consecutive quarters of missed earnings estimates against declining revenues and a confirmed price downtrend make this a value opportunity that demands patience—the attractive forward multiple near 8.7 times and analyst consensus implying 21% upside provide a potential margin of safety, but recent execution and technical headwinds suggest the discount may persist before recovering.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.4 |
| ROA | 5.3 |
| Gross margin | 0.9 |
| Op margin | 4.8 |
| Net margin | 4.7 |
| Current ratio | 9.3 |
| FCF quality | 4.2 |
| Moat | 4.4 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 53% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
1.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.2 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -1%
Momentum
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 7.3 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 1.3 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.2%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.5 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 8.2 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 26%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.4 |
| quality rank | 7.4 |
| growth rank | 1.9 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.5 |
| support resistance | 6.0 |
| 52w position | 4.4 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.8 |
| days to cover | 6.2 |
| volatility | 6.7 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 5.0 |
| beta | 9.4 |
| debt equity | 8.3 |
| news risk | 5.5 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 3 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 1.2 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
- ▸Dividend: 336.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:4.8>=4.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.9>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:32d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
- 8K_SERIOUS:2.05,2.06
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.8<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
1.89
Upside
+9.5%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 41
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.0 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 8.0) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK, 8K_SERIOUS:2.05,2.06) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 1.89 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.0, Risk (lower is worse) at 7.2, and Sentiment at 6.4; the weakest are Growth at 1.1, Peer rank at 3.9, and Catalyst at 4.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.89 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Consecutive Earnings Misses
Trip ifEPS surprise turns positive (above 0%) for 2 consecutive quarters, ending the miss streak.
- P2Confirmed Price Downtrend
Trip ifPrice reclaims the 200-day moving average and holds above it for 4 consecutive weeks.
- P3Valuation Margin Of Safety
Trip ifForward P/E multiple expands above 15x, indicating the valuation discount has fully closed.
- P4Serious Disclosure Events Overhang
Trip ifThe count of serious 8-K disclosure events (items 2.05 or 2.06) within any 12-month rolling period exceeds 2, extending the regulatory and material-event overhang beyond the current known filings.