Value
8.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.4 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.7 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 7.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.16
- ▸Attractively valued
INGM · Why this verdict
Why Ingram Micro Holding Corporatio (INGM) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
International operations represent 66% of revenue, concentrating exposure to cross-border regulatory, currency, and macro disruptions that a more domestically-oriented business would not face. Bear case | Over 12 months, the domestic revenue mix grows as a share of total, reducing international concentration below 60%. | →Stable |
| CounterHeavy international exposure can be a structural advantage if those geographies grow faster; the concentration risk is adverse only if those markets deteriorate, which is not the current base case. | ||
The business scores below the minimum quality level required for conviction, and short interest stands at 15%—a combination that signals elevated risk and limited margin of safety at current prices. Warnings | If quality improves, return metrics and operating margins would need to recover meaningfully over the next 12 months to clear the quality floor above 4.0. | →Stable |
| CounterA below-floor quality score can coexist with a legitimate turnaround in progress; free cash flow converting at 157% of net income suggests the underlying cash economics are healthier than accounting return metrics imply. | ||
A golden cross has formed, the stock trades above all major moving averages, RSI sits near 66 in momentum territory, and on-balance volume is rising—all consistent with a technically constructive breakout setup. Momentum breakdown | The stock holds above its moving averages over the next 12 months and RSI sustains in the 50–70 range without reverting to sub-50. | →Stable |
| CounterTechnical breakouts in low-quality businesses frequently reverse; with the stock already near its analyst target and asymmetry negative, the momentum setup may lack sufficient fundamental support to follow through. | ||
Free cash flow converts at 157% of net income, indicating the business generates substantially more cash than accounting earnings suggest—a durability signal that partially offsets weak return-on-equity. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow conversion remains above 100% of net income for the next 4 quarters, confirming the cash dynamics are structural rather than a one-period working-capital benefit. | →Stable |
| CounterExceptional cash conversion can be temporary, driven by working capital timing; with operating margins at very thin levels, any deterioration in receivables or payables management could quickly reverse this advantage. | ||
International operations represent 66% of revenue, concentrating exposure to cross-border regulatory, currency, and macro disruptions that a more domestically-oriented business would not face.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Over 12 months, the domestic revenue mix grows as a share of total, reducing international concentration below 60%.
CounterHeavy international exposure can be a structural advantage if those geographies grow faster; the concentration risk is adverse only if those markets deteriorate, which is not the current base case.
The business scores below the minimum quality level required for conviction, and short interest stands at 15%—a combination that signals elevated risk and limited margin of safety at current prices.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- If quality improves, return metrics and operating margins would need to recover meaningfully over the next 12 months to clear the quality floor above 4.0.
CounterA below-floor quality score can coexist with a legitimate turnaround in progress; free cash flow converting at 157% of net income suggests the underlying cash economics are healthier than accounting return metrics imply.
A golden cross has formed, the stock trades above all major moving averages, RSI sits near 66 in momentum territory, and on-balance volume is rising—all consistent with a technically constructive breakout setup.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock holds above its moving averages over the next 12 months and RSI sustains in the 50–70 range without reverting to sub-50.
CounterTechnical breakouts in low-quality businesses frequently reverse; with the stock already near its analyst target and asymmetry negative, the momentum setup may lack sufficient fundamental support to follow through.
Free cash flow converts at 157% of net income, indicating the business generates substantially more cash than accounting earnings suggest—a durability signal that partially offsets weak return-on-equity.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow conversion remains above 100% of net income for the next 4 quarters, confirming the cash dynamics are structural rather than a one-period working-capital benefit.
CounterExceptional cash conversion can be temporary, driven by working capital timing; with operating margins at very thin levels, any deterioration in receivables or payables management could quickly reverse this advantage.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Despite strong technical momentum and free cash flow converting at 157% of net income, the business scores below the minimum quality threshold required for position entry—with short interest at 15%, the analyst target already reached, and risk/reward at 0.46-to-1, the current setup does not support adding capital.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.0 |
| ROA | 2.1 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.7 |
| Net margin | 0.3 |
| Current ratio | 4.9 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.9 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 157% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
8.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.9 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 8.7 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 3.7 |
- ▸Oversold in uptrend (RSI 19)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.2 |
| Price target | 7.8 |
| erm sentiment | 6.2 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 21%
Insider
3.0/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $512,964,851 (8.678% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.8 |
| quality rank | 2.8 |
| growth rank | 7.0 |
Technical
8.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 9.2 |
| support resistance | 8.7 |
| 52w position | 6.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 1.9 |
| days to cover | 6.8 |
| volatility | 3.4 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 4.6 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| debt equity | 5.6 |
- ▸High short interest justified: 16%
- ▸Above max pain $2
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.5 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.8 |
| dividend safety | 6.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 126.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (5)
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:32d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:3.5<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.8<1.5@spot
- INSIDER:8.68%=EXTREME
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.75
Upside
+5.5%
Downside
7.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Value at 8.5 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:3.5<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.5, Technical at 8.2, and Growth at 8.0; the weakest are Insider at 3.0, Quality at 3.4, and Momentum at 3.5. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.75 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Quality Below Investment Floor
Trip ifQuality score rises above 4.0 for 2 consecutive quarters, clearing the investment floor.
- P2Technical Breakout Momentum
Trip ifPrice falls below the 200-day moving average and RSI drops below 40.
- P3Strong Free Cash Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow conversion falls below 100% of net income for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Geographic Concentration Risk
Trip ifInternational revenue share falls below 60% of total revenue.