Value
5.4/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 0.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
IMTX · Why this verdict
Why Immatics (IMTX) is rated SELL
Updated
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Analysts project roughly 99% upside from current levels and the risk/reward ratio is approximately 10.5-to-1 in favor of buyers, suggesting the market is materially discounting the potential value of the clinical pipeline relative to analyst assessments. Sentiment breakdown | The share price appreciates by more than 40% from current levels over 12 months as clinical catalysts reduce uncertainty. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst coverage is noted as light, which reduces the reliability of the consensus; with 3 misses in 4 quarters and quality far below the minimum floor, the high price target may reflect optimism about a pipeline whose execution history has been consistently disappointing. | ||
Free cash flow is negative at 297% of revenue, indicating the company is burning cash at nearly three times its current revenue base and is entirely dependent on capital markets access to sustain operations. Quality breakdown | Cash burn as a percentage of revenue remains above 200% over the next 4 reported quarters, confirming the structural nature of the capital dependency. | →Stable |
| CounterPre-clinical and early clinical-stage biotechs routinely burn cash at multiples of revenue; the burn rate in isolation says little about whether the investment is appropriate for the stage of development, and the company's liquidity position indicates adequate near-term runway. | ||
Three of the past four reported quarters were misses — including the most recent at -15.5% and a severe miss of -88.3% in the oldest quarter — with only a single 29.2% beat, indicating persistently poor alignment between actual results and consensus expectations. Earnings | Average quarterly EPS surprise remains below -5% over the next 2 reported quarters, sustaining the pattern. | →Stable |
| CounterEPS misses at pre-revenue biotechs are driven by R&D spending variability, which can be lumpy and hard to forecast; the one 29.2% beat in the record demonstrates that positive surprises are achievable when spend timing is favorable. | ||
A Piotroski F-Score of 2 out of 9 — among the weakest possible readings — alongside near-zero across all profitability and return metrics signals broad-based financial weakness that goes beyond the expected cash burn of a typical early-stage biotech. Components | Piotroski F-Score remains below 4 for the next 2 consecutive reported periods, confirming the structural nature of the financial weakness. | →Stable |
| CounterThe Piotroski score is calibrated for mature businesses with operating history; at a pre-revenue clinical-stage company where profitability metrics are by design zero, the score mechanically zeroes out on multiple dimensions and may not meaningfully distinguish distress from ordinary developmental-stage economics. | ||
Analysts project roughly 99% upside from current levels and the risk/reward ratio is approximately 10.5-to-1 in favor of buyers, suggesting the market is materially discounting the potential value of the clinical pipeline relative to analyst assessments.
→StableSentiment breakdown
- Expectation
- The share price appreciates by more than 40% from current levels over 12 months as clinical catalysts reduce uncertainty.
CounterAnalyst coverage is noted as light, which reduces the reliability of the consensus; with 3 misses in 4 quarters and quality far below the minimum floor, the high price target may reflect optimism about a pipeline whose execution history has been consistently disappointing.
Free cash flow is negative at 297% of revenue, indicating the company is burning cash at nearly three times its current revenue base and is entirely dependent on capital markets access to sustain operations.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Cash burn as a percentage of revenue remains above 200% over the next 4 reported quarters, confirming the structural nature of the capital dependency.
CounterPre-clinical and early clinical-stage biotechs routinely burn cash at multiples of revenue; the burn rate in isolation says little about whether the investment is appropriate for the stage of development, and the company's liquidity position indicates adequate near-term runway.
Three of the past four reported quarters were misses — including the most recent at -15.5% and a severe miss of -88.3% in the oldest quarter — with only a single 29.2% beat, indicating persistently poor alignment between actual results and consensus expectations.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Average quarterly EPS surprise remains below -5% over the next 2 reported quarters, sustaining the pattern.
CounterEPS misses at pre-revenue biotechs are driven by R&D spending variability, which can be lumpy and hard to forecast; the one 29.2% beat in the record demonstrates that positive surprises are achievable when spend timing is favorable.
A Piotroski F-Score of 2 out of 9 — among the weakest possible readings — alongside near-zero across all profitability and return metrics signals broad-based financial weakness that goes beyond the expected cash burn of a typical early-stage biotech.
→StableComponents
- Expectation
- Piotroski F-Score remains below 4 for the next 2 consecutive reported periods, confirming the structural nature of the financial weakness.
CounterThe Piotroski score is calibrated for mature businesses with operating history; at a pre-revenue clinical-stage company where profitability metrics are by design zero, the score mechanically zeroes out on multiple dimensions and may not meaningfully distinguish distress from ordinary developmental-stage economics.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Immatics is a pre-revenue biotech with quality far below minimum standards, a Piotroski F-Score of 2 out of 9, and 3 of its past 4 quarters delivered misses; analysts nonetheless project approximately 73% upside from current levels, offering a highly asymmetric but deeply speculative setup where execution risk is the dominant variable.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
1.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.0 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 2.5 |
| Piotroski F | 2.2 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -297% of revenue
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Weak Piotroski F-Score: 2/9
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 50%Momentum
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.9 |
| MACD | 8.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 5.2 |
| Volume | 9.3 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+6.7%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.7 |
| Price target | 10.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.2 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (7.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 89%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
2.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.5 |
| quality rank | 3.5 |
| growth rank | 1.6 |
Technical
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.1 |
| support resistance | 2.4 |
| 52w position | 6.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
2.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.0 |
| days to cover | 0.1 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 5.7 |
| debt equity | 1.7 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 16.75
- ▸High IV: 281%
Catalyst
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (8)
- MOMENTUM:7.3>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:5.2>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:38d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
5.24
Upside
+64.5%
Downside
12.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Binary industry: Biotechnology
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Sentiment at 7.8 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 7.8, Momentum at 7.3, and Value at 5.4; the weakest are Quality at 1.2, Peer rank at 2.3, and Catalyst at 2.5. The V9 engine cleared all gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 5.24 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Severe Cash Burn Sustainability
Trip ifFCF deficit compresses to less than 100% of revenue for 2 consecutive reported quarters.
- P2Worsening Earnings Execution
Trip ifAverage quarterly EPS surprise exceeds 0% for 2 consecutive reported quarters.
- P3Analyst Upside Asymmetric Setup
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target falls below $12.00 for 2 consecutive months.
- P4Extremely Weak Financial Health
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score rises above 5 out of 9 for 2 consecutive reported periods.