Value
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 0.8 |
| P/S | 9.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.4 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 16.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.09
ICUI · Why this verdict
Why ICU Medical (ICUI) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
The company has delivered a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak with an exceptional average positive surprise and extraordinary free cash flow conversion, but revenue is declining and the current price offers thin reward against meaningful downside — keeping conviction limited despite the encouraging earnings track record.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company has beaten consensus earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters, with an average positive surprise of approximately 27% — a pattern of consistent and material outperformance suggesting the business is delivering significantly above market expectations. Catalyst breakdown | The next quarterly earnings report produces a positive surprise, extending the perfect streak to five consecutive beats. | →Stable |
| CounterThe two most recent quarters produced surprises of approximately 12-13% — materially smaller than the two prior quarters where surprises exceeded 40% — suggesting the magnitude of outperformance may be compressing as estimates adjust upward. | ||
Revenue has declined approximately 12%, with the growth score at zero — indicating that despite the strong earnings beat streak, the top-line trajectory is heading in the wrong direction and raises questions about the sustainability of earnings growth driven purely by cost discipline. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth turns positive and exceeds 3% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters, reversing the declining trend. | →Stable |
| CounterA company can sustain or grow earnings even with declining revenue through margin improvement or mix shift, and the strong earnings beat record suggests management is executing effectively despite the revenue headwind. | ||
The company converts approximately 835% of reported net income into free cash flow — far above 100% — suggesting accounting earnings significantly understate the cash being generated by the business and providing meaningful financial flexibility. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow conversion remains above 300% of net income over the next four quarters, confirming the exceptional cash generation is sustained rather than a one-time effect. | →Stable |
| CounterA FCF/NI ratio this high is unusual and may reflect very low net income from large non-cash charges rather than organically superior cash generation — if those charges normalize, the ratio could revert dramatically. | ||
With only 4.6% upside to the price target against approximately 6.7% potential downside, the risk/reward ratio of 0.69 is well below the threshold at which the setup becomes asymmetric — making the current entry unattractive despite strong earnings execution. Price targets | If this pillar is wrong, a price pullback to below $135 expands upside to the $150.39 target to more than 11%, creating a materially improved entry point. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalysts see approximately 20% upside from consensus estimates, and a cluster of recent analyst attention has emerged — if analyst upgrades materialize, the price target may be revised higher, expanding the geometric upside without requiring a pullback. | ||
The company has beaten consensus earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters, with an average positive surprise of approximately 27% — a pattern of consistent and material outperformance suggesting the business is delivering significantly above market expectations.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The next quarterly earnings report produces a positive surprise, extending the perfect streak to five consecutive beats.
CounterThe two most recent quarters produced surprises of approximately 12-13% — materially smaller than the two prior quarters where surprises exceeded 40% — suggesting the magnitude of outperformance may be compressing as estimates adjust upward.
Revenue has declined approximately 12%, with the growth score at zero — indicating that despite the strong earnings beat streak, the top-line trajectory is heading in the wrong direction and raises questions about the sustainability of earnings growth driven purely by cost discipline.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth turns positive and exceeds 3% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters, reversing the declining trend.
CounterA company can sustain or grow earnings even with declining revenue through margin improvement or mix shift, and the strong earnings beat record suggests management is executing effectively despite the revenue headwind.
The company converts approximately 835% of reported net income into free cash flow — far above 100% — suggesting accounting earnings significantly understate the cash being generated by the business and providing meaningful financial flexibility.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow conversion remains above 300% of net income over the next four quarters, confirming the exceptional cash generation is sustained rather than a one-time effect.
CounterA FCF/NI ratio this high is unusual and may reflect very low net income from large non-cash charges rather than organically superior cash generation — if those charges normalize, the ratio could revert dramatically.
With only 4.6% upside to the price target against approximately 6.7% potential downside, the risk/reward ratio of 0.69 is well below the threshold at which the setup becomes asymmetric — making the current entry unattractive despite strong earnings execution.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- If this pillar is wrong, a price pullback to below $135 expands upside to the $150.39 target to more than 11%, creating a materially improved entry point.
CounterAnalysts see approximately 20% upside from consensus estimates, and a cluster of recent analyst attention has emerged — if analyst upgrades materialize, the price target may be revised higher, expanding the geometric upside without requiring a pullback.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.8 |
| ROA | 1.1 |
| Gross margin | 3.6 |
| Op margin | 2.3 |
| Net margin | 1.1 |
| Current ratio | 8.0 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.6 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 835% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
0.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -12%
Momentum
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.9 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.8 |
| Price target | 6.7 |
| erm sentiment | 5.5 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (8.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $882,242 (0.023% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
2.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.8 |
| quality rank | 4.6 |
| growth rank | 0.0 |
Technical
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.3 |
| support resistance | 2.9 |
| 52w position | 9.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.8 |
| days to cover | 4.5 |
| volatility | 3.7 |
| put call | 5.3 |
| implied vol | 3.2 |
| max pain risk | 5.0 |
| beta | 8.4 |
| debt equity | 7.2 |
- ▸High IV: 61%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.2>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:27d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.2=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.2<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.22
Upside
-2.8%
Downside
12.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupMomentum Cont — Trend continuation, RSI 65, MACD bullish
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 27d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $3.9B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.5 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Catalyst at 7.5) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.2=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.22 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Catalyst at 7.5, Sentiment at 6.4, and Value at 5.9; the weakest are Growth at 0.0, Peer rank at 2.8, and Quality at 4.5. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.22 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in any single quarter in the next 4 quarterly reports, breaking the perfect beat streak.
- P2Declining Revenue Structural Headwind
Trip ifRevenue growth turns positive and exceeds 3% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters, reversing the declining trend.
- P3Exceptional Free Cash Flow Conversion
Trip ifFCF/NI ratio falls below 300% for 2 consecutive quarters, indicating a material deterioration in the exceptional cash conversion profile.
- P4Thin Reward Against Downside
Trip ifStock price falls below $135, increasing upside to the $150.39 price target to more than 11% and creating a favorable risk/reward entry point.