Value
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 1.3 |
| P/S | 9.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.3 |
| PEG | 9.8 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 14.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.53
ICLR · Why this verdict
Why ICON (ICLR) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
The company's exceptional free cash flow conversion and historical earnings beat record are offset by a confirmed price downtrend — the stock is below a falling 200-day moving average — and an earnings report due today that introduces immediate binary risk into any position.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The stock is in a confirmed downtrend — trading below a 200-day moving average that is declining at approximately 3.9% per month, with a hard death-cross technical block and a falling on-balance volume trend — conditions that collectively signal sustained distribution rather than a constructive setup. Momentum breakdown | If the downtrend reverses, the stock will reclaim its 200-day moving average and hold above it for at least 10 consecutive trading days while the moving average slope turns positive. | →Stable |
| CounterThe MACD is improving and the RSI has reached 76, suggesting short-term momentum is turning — sharp rallies can occur even within downtrends, and an earnings catalyst today could accelerate a near-term recovery. | ||
The most recent quarterly report produced a significant miss of approximately 19% below consensus estimates, following three consecutive beats — breaking a pattern of consistent outperformance and introducing uncertainty about whether the prior track record will resume. Earnings | Earnings recovers to a positive surprise of at least 3% in the next two quarters, re-establishing the prior beat pattern. | →Stable |
| CounterThe three prior quarters all beat estimates, suggesting the business fundamentals may remain intact — the most recent miss could reflect one-time factors rather than a structural deterioration in earnings power. | ||
The company converts approximately 336% of reported net income into free cash flow — well above 100% — suggesting accounting earnings significantly understate the true cash generation of the business, providing a quality anchor in an otherwise cautious setup. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow conversion remains above 150% of net income over the next four quarters, confirming the cash generation quality is sustained. | →Stable |
| CounterA very high FCF/NI ratio can reflect timing effects from working capital or deferred items rather than structural over-earning — if those reverse, conversion can revert sharply toward 100%. | ||
With an earnings report due today, the position carries immediate binary event risk — a significant miss could accelerate the existing downtrend, while an upside surprise could serve as the catalyst needed to initiate a reversal. Catalyst breakdown | The earnings report produces a positive surprise exceeding 3%, resolving the binary risk favorably and providing evidence the recent miss was an aberration. | →Stable |
| CounterWith an RSI of 76 suggesting the stock has rallied sharply into the print, even a modest beat may not produce further upside if near-term expectations have already been raised. | ||
The stock is in a confirmed downtrend — trading below a 200-day moving average that is declining at approximately 3.9% per month, with a hard death-cross technical block and a falling on-balance volume trend — conditions that collectively signal sustained distribution rather than a constructive setup.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- If the downtrend reverses, the stock will reclaim its 200-day moving average and hold above it for at least 10 consecutive trading days while the moving average slope turns positive.
CounterThe MACD is improving and the RSI has reached 76, suggesting short-term momentum is turning — sharp rallies can occur even within downtrends, and an earnings catalyst today could accelerate a near-term recovery.
The most recent quarterly report produced a significant miss of approximately 19% below consensus estimates, following three consecutive beats — breaking a pattern of consistent outperformance and introducing uncertainty about whether the prior track record will resume.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings recovers to a positive surprise of at least 3% in the next two quarters, re-establishing the prior beat pattern.
CounterThe three prior quarters all beat estimates, suggesting the business fundamentals may remain intact — the most recent miss could reflect one-time factors rather than a structural deterioration in earnings power.
The company converts approximately 336% of reported net income into free cash flow — well above 100% — suggesting accounting earnings significantly understate the true cash generation of the business, providing a quality anchor in an otherwise cautious setup.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow conversion remains above 150% of net income over the next four quarters, confirming the cash generation quality is sustained.
CounterA very high FCF/NI ratio can reflect timing effects from working capital or deferred items rather than structural over-earning — if those reverse, conversion can revert sharply toward 100%.
With an earnings report due today, the position carries immediate binary event risk — a significant miss could accelerate the existing downtrend, while an upside surprise could serve as the catalyst needed to initiate a reversal.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The earnings report produces a positive surprise exceeding 3%, resolving the binary risk favorably and providing evidence the recent miss was an aberration.
CounterWith an RSI of 76 suggesting the stock has rallied sharply into the print, even a modest beat may not produce further upside if near-term expectations have already been raised.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.6 |
| ROA | 2.3 |
| Gross margin | 1.1 |
| Op margin | 3.7 |
| Net margin | 1.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.4 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.5 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 467% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
1.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.7 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
Momentum
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 5.0 |
| Volume | 3.4 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.3 |
| Price target | 6.4 |
| erm sentiment | 5.9 |
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.0 |
| quality rank | 4.5 |
| growth rank | 1.6 |
Technical
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.2 |
| support resistance | 7.1 |
| 52w position | 5.7 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.1 |
| days to cover | 8.0 |
| volatility | 3.1 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 4.2 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 6.1 |
| debt equity | 8.5 |
- ▸Above max pain $130
Catalyst
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.5 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 1.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Earnings in 3 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:4.8>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.2=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:3d<=7d
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.8<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.17
Upside
-1.3%
Downside
7.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's -0.2=NEGATIVE outcome against Insider at 7.3 and asymmetric R:R of -0.17.
The strongest dimensions are Insider at 7.3, Sentiment at 6.6, and Value at 6.5; the weakest are Growth at 1.4, Quality at 3.8, and Peer rank at 4.1. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.17 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Confirmed Technical Downtrend
Trip ifStock closes above the 200-day moving average for 10 consecutive trading days and the moving average slope turns positive, confirming trend reversal.
- P2Recent Earnings Miss After Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise exceeds 3% for 2 consecutive quarters following the most recent miss, confirming the earnings recovery.
- P3Exceptional Free Cash Flow Conversion
Trip ifFCF/NI ratio falls below 150% for 2 consecutive quarters, indicating a material deterioration in cash conversion quality.
- P4Earnings Today Binary Event Risk
Trip ifEPS surprise exceeds 5% in today's earnings report, resolving the binary risk positively and establishing an upside catalyst.