Value
5.7/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.7 |
| P/S | 6.5 |
| PEG | 4.4 |
- ▸PEG: 2.14
IBOC · Why this verdict
Why International Bancshares Corpor (IBOC) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The stock sits just below its near-term resistance target with only 0.6% remaining headroom and a risk/reward ratio of 0.16-to-1, meaning the potential downside materially outweighs any incremental gain from current levels. Price targets | A meaningful pullback from resistance to a level where the upside-to-target exceeds 8% and the risk/reward ratio exceeds 1.5-to-1, restoring an asymmetric entry setup. | →Stable |
| CounterPrice momentum is strongly positive — above all moving averages with a golden cross formation — suggesting the stock may push through resistance and reprice higher, which would invalidate the unfavorable geometry. | ||
Net margins of 50% and a Piotroski financial-health score of 8 out of 9 place this bank among the best-in-class margin franchises in its peer group, providing a durable quality foundation. Quality breakdown | Reported net margin remains above 45% in each of the next two quarterly filings, preserving the margin advantage over peers. | →Stable |
| CounterStrong margins without a competitive moat — as the data explicitly notes — can erode if the rate environment shifts or lower-cost competitors take market share; there is no structural barrier identified to defend the current margin level. | ||
Three of the last four quarters beat consensus estimates, though the two older beats were by very large margins in a different period, and the most recent quarter delivered a miss of -2.4%, interrupting the recent beat pattern. Earnings | The next two quarterly reports return to positive earnings surprises, re-establishing the beat pattern after the most recent shortfall. | →Stable |
| CounterWith guidance unknown and the most recent result a miss, the historical beat average is heavily influenced by older data points; forward consistency cannot be assumed from the historical record alone. | ||
A golden cross formation with price above all major moving averages and rising on-balance volume confirms that near-term buying pressure is dominant, supporting the current trading range. Momentum breakdown | Price sustains above the 200-day moving average for the next three months, confirming that the momentum signal is durable rather than a short-lived technical bounce. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock is already near its 52-week high, leaving diminishing room for further near-term appreciation before a natural consolidation period that could retrace a portion of recent gains. | ||
The stock sits just below its near-term resistance target with only 0.6% remaining headroom and a risk/reward ratio of 0.16-to-1, meaning the potential downside materially outweighs any incremental gain from current levels.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- A meaningful pullback from resistance to a level where the upside-to-target exceeds 8% and the risk/reward ratio exceeds 1.5-to-1, restoring an asymmetric entry setup.
CounterPrice momentum is strongly positive — above all moving averages with a golden cross formation — suggesting the stock may push through resistance and reprice higher, which would invalidate the unfavorable geometry.
Net margins of 50% and a Piotroski financial-health score of 8 out of 9 place this bank among the best-in-class margin franchises in its peer group, providing a durable quality foundation.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Reported net margin remains above 45% in each of the next two quarterly filings, preserving the margin advantage over peers.
CounterStrong margins without a competitive moat — as the data explicitly notes — can erode if the rate environment shifts or lower-cost competitors take market share; there is no structural barrier identified to defend the current margin level.
Three of the last four quarters beat consensus estimates, though the two older beats were by very large margins in a different period, and the most recent quarter delivered a miss of -2.4%, interrupting the recent beat pattern.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The next two quarterly reports return to positive earnings surprises, re-establishing the beat pattern after the most recent shortfall.
CounterWith guidance unknown and the most recent result a miss, the historical beat average is heavily influenced by older data points; forward consistency cannot be assumed from the historical record alone.
A golden cross formation with price above all major moving averages and rising on-balance volume confirms that near-term buying pressure is dominant, supporting the current trading range.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price sustains above the 200-day moving average for the next three months, confirming that the momentum signal is durable rather than a short-lived technical bounce.
CounterThe stock is already near its 52-week high, leaving diminishing room for further near-term appreciation before a natural consolidation period that could retrace a portion of recent gains.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Operating margins of 50% and a Piotroski financial-health score of 8 out of 9 make this a high-quality regional bank, but the stock has effectively reached its near-term price target with an unfavorable risk/reward ratio of 0.16-to-1, leaving little margin of safety for new buyers.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.5 |
| ROA | 1.7 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.2 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 50%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
3.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.8 |
| EPS growth | 3.1 |
Momentum
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 6.6 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 1.1 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 7.1 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $720,000 (0.015% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.6 |
| quality rank | 8.7 |
| growth rank | 1.8 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.0 |
| support resistance | 3.9 |
| 52w position | 9.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.4 |
| days to cover | 5.7 |
| volatility | 7.5 |
| implied vol | 4.0 |
| beta | 8.8 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 3 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
5.1/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
- ▸Dividend: 188.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:4.6>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.5=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.6<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.49
Upside
-2.6%
Downside
5.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 51, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $4.7B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.2 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Risk (lower is worse) at 6.9) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.5=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.49 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 6.9, Quality at 5.8, and Value at 5.7; the weakest are Growth at 3.5, Momentum at 4.6, and Peer rank at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.49 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Best In Class Operating Margins
Trip ifReported net margin falls below 40% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Price At Target Unfavorable Risk Reward
Trip ifPrice breaks above $83 and sustains for 5 consecutive trading days, demonstrating that resistance at $75.57 was cleared and more upside existed.
- P3Earnings Beat History Recent Miss
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Positive Price Momentum Above All Mas
Trip ifPrice falls below the 200-day moving average and sustains below it for 20 consecutive trading days.