Value
6.1/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 2.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 49.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.45
HUN · Why this verdict
Why Huntsman (HUN) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Business quality scores 1.5 out of 10—less than half the minimum investable threshold—with no identifiable competitive moat, a Piotroski financial health score of 4.4 out of 9, and quality concerns flagged across return and margin metrics. Bear case | Quality score improves above 4 over the next four quarters, reflecting margin recovery and a Piotroski score above 6. | →Stable |
| CounterInstitutions are accumulating shares despite the low quality score, suggesting the market may be pricing in a recovery scenario that trailing quality metrics do not yet capture. | ||
The dividend payout ratio stands at 110% of earnings—meaning the company distributes more than it earns—making the dividend potentially unsustainable and flagging the yield as a possible trap for income-seeking investors. Catalyst breakdown | Payout ratio falls below 80% for two consecutive quarters as earnings recover, confirming the dividend is covered and the yield is genuine. | →Stable |
| CounterA forward price-to-earnings multiple of 74.5 times implies the market expects significant earnings recovery; if that recovery materializes, the payout ratio could normalize quickly without requiring a dividend cut. | ||
The earnings record over the past year shows one strong beat, two misses—including a 64% shortfall in the oldest reported period—and one in-line quarter, an inconsistent pattern that makes forward estimates a poor guide to actual results. Earnings | The company beats or meets estimates in 3 of the next 4 quarters, with no individual quarter's surprise worse than negative 10%, establishing a more reliable track record. | →Stable |
| CounterThe average surprise across all four reported periods is slightly above 0% (0.08%), suggesting that misses and beats roughly offset over time—a pattern that may reflect operational volatility rather than a systematic bias to disappoint. | ||
Short interest stands at 20% of float—flagged as justified given the fundamental picture—and implied volatility has registered extremely high at 251%, reflecting broad market uncertainty about the company's near-term earnings power. Risk breakdown | Short interest falls below 10% of float as the fundamental recovery thesis gains credibility among investors. | →Stable |
| CounterInstitutional accumulation noted in the holder-change data creates the potential for short-covering if a recovery narrative gains traction, which could drive sharp price appreciation even before underlying fundamentals improve. | ||
Business quality scores 1.5 out of 10—less than half the minimum investable threshold—with no identifiable competitive moat, a Piotroski financial health score of 4.4 out of 9, and quality concerns flagged across return and margin metrics.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Quality score improves above 4 over the next four quarters, reflecting margin recovery and a Piotroski score above 6.
CounterInstitutions are accumulating shares despite the low quality score, suggesting the market may be pricing in a recovery scenario that trailing quality metrics do not yet capture.
The dividend payout ratio stands at 110% of earnings—meaning the company distributes more than it earns—making the dividend potentially unsustainable and flagging the yield as a possible trap for income-seeking investors.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Payout ratio falls below 80% for two consecutive quarters as earnings recover, confirming the dividend is covered and the yield is genuine.
CounterA forward price-to-earnings multiple of 74.5 times implies the market expects significant earnings recovery; if that recovery materializes, the payout ratio could normalize quickly without requiring a dividend cut.
The earnings record over the past year shows one strong beat, two misses—including a 64% shortfall in the oldest reported period—and one in-line quarter, an inconsistent pattern that makes forward estimates a poor guide to actual results.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The company beats or meets estimates in 3 of the next 4 quarters, with no individual quarter's surprise worse than negative 10%, establishing a more reliable track record.
CounterThe average surprise across all four reported periods is slightly above 0% (0.08%), suggesting that misses and beats roughly offset over time—a pattern that may reflect operational volatility rather than a systematic bias to disappoint.
Short interest stands at 20% of float—flagged as justified given the fundamental picture—and implied volatility has registered extremely high at 251%, reflecting broad market uncertainty about the company's near-term earnings power.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Short interest falls below 10% of float as the fundamental recovery thesis gains credibility among investors.
CounterInstitutional accumulation noted in the holder-change data creates the potential for short-covering if a recovery narrative gains traction, which could drive sharp price appreciation even before underlying fundamentals improve.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Huntsman scores 1.5 out of 10 on business quality—far below the investable minimum—with no competitive moat, an inconsistent recent earnings record, an unsafe dividend yield, and 20% short interest justified by the fundamental picture; the stock is uninvestable on fundamental grounds despite a constructive near-term technical breakout.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
1.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.8 |
| Moat | 3.1 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
6.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.7 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
1.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 19, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+4.8%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 3.1 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 8.6 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: -0.38 (n=2)
- ▸Analyst upside: 31%
Insider
6.7/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 8.1 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.0 |
| quality rank | 3.5 |
| growth rank | 4.0 |
Technical
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.7 |
| support resistance | 9.1 |
| 52w position | 3.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 1.5 |
| days to cover | 3.6 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 3.7 |
| beta | 8.8 |
| debt equity | 5.9 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸High short interest justified: 20%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 1.1 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 2.5 |
| dividend safety | 4.2 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/2M
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:26d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:1.2<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.9<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.93
Upside
+13.9%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.9B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Technical at 6.8 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:1.2<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 6.8, Insider at 6.7, and Growth at 6.3; the weakest are Momentum at 1.2, Quality at 1.5, and Catalyst at 4.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.93 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Quality Far Below Floor No Moat
Trip ifQuality score rises above 4 and Piotroski score exceeds 6 for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Unsafe Dividend Yield Trap
Trip ifDividend payout ratio falls below 80% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Inconsistent Earnings Execution
Trip ifEPS exceeds or meets estimates in 3 of the next 4 quarters with no quarterly EPS surprise falling below -10%.
- P4High Short Interest Justified
Trip ifShort interest falls below 10% of float.