Value
6.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.0 |
| P/S | 9.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.6 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 16.2x
HTH · Why this verdict
Why Hilltop Holdings (HTH) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
A Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 — near the lower bound of the scale — combined with no identifiable competitive moat signals fragile financial health and limited pricing power, making it difficult to believe that recent earnings outperformance reflects durable competitive positioning. Quality breakdown | The Piotroski F-Score should improve above 5 within the next two annual reporting cycles if genuine financial health improvement is underway. | →Stable |
| CounterA low Piotroski score at a single point in time can reflect one-time restructuring or seasonal balance sheet dynamics; the three consecutive earnings beats averaging roughly 59% positive surprise may indicate operational improvement that the historical quality score has not yet captured. | ||
With 82% of the business concentrated in Texas, New York, and California — well above what most diversified frameworks consider acceptable — a synchronized regional economic deterioration across any of these markets could disproportionately and rapidly impair the company's financial standing. Bear case | Over 12 months, revenue from markets outside the three concentrated states should grow to represent at least 25% of total revenue, demonstrating meaningful geographic diversification. | →Stable |
| CounterDeep geographic concentration can reflect deliberate market focus and local expertise; if the three-state economies outperform the national average, the concentration may become a source of relative strength rather than a source of idiosyncratic risk. | ||
Revenue declined by approximately 3% in the most recent period, with earnings growth scores near the bottom of the range, indicating that top-line momentum is moving in the wrong direction and the company has not demonstrated an ability to grow the business organically. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth should turn positive and remain above 0% for two consecutive quarters before the top-line concern begins to resolve. | →Stable |
| CounterShort-term revenue contraction can reflect deliberate business restructuring that improves earnings quality even as headline sales fall; the pattern of three consecutive earnings beats suggests underlying profitability may be improving faster than the revenue line suggests. | ||
With approximately 0.8% of headroom to the near-term price target and a risk/reward ratio of roughly 0.2-to-1 against you, there is almost no room for the stock to appreciate before reaching resistance, while potential downside remains meaningfully larger. Price targets | For the setup to become investable, the stock would need to pull back at least 10% to reopen meaningful upside to the analyst target and restore a risk/reward above 1.5-to-1. | →Stable |
| CounterIf analysts revise their price targets materially upward following further quarters of large positive earnings surprises — the recent average is roughly 44% above consensus — the risk/reward geometry could improve without requiring any price decline. | ||
A Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 — near the lower bound of the scale — combined with no identifiable competitive moat signals fragile financial health and limited pricing power, making it difficult to believe that recent earnings outperformance reflects durable competitive positioning.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The Piotroski F-Score should improve above 5 within the next two annual reporting cycles if genuine financial health improvement is underway.
CounterA low Piotroski score at a single point in time can reflect one-time restructuring or seasonal balance sheet dynamics; the three consecutive earnings beats averaging roughly 59% positive surprise may indicate operational improvement that the historical quality score has not yet captured.
With 82% of the business concentrated in Texas, New York, and California — well above what most diversified frameworks consider acceptable — a synchronized regional economic deterioration across any of these markets could disproportionately and rapidly impair the company's financial standing.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Over 12 months, revenue from markets outside the three concentrated states should grow to represent at least 25% of total revenue, demonstrating meaningful geographic diversification.
CounterDeep geographic concentration can reflect deliberate market focus and local expertise; if the three-state economies outperform the national average, the concentration may become a source of relative strength rather than a source of idiosyncratic risk.
Revenue declined by approximately 3% in the most recent period, with earnings growth scores near the bottom of the range, indicating that top-line momentum is moving in the wrong direction and the company has not demonstrated an ability to grow the business organically.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should turn positive and remain above 0% for two consecutive quarters before the top-line concern begins to resolve.
CounterShort-term revenue contraction can reflect deliberate business restructuring that improves earnings quality even as headline sales fall; the pattern of three consecutive earnings beats suggests underlying profitability may be improving faster than the revenue line suggests.
With approximately 0.8% of headroom to the near-term price target and a risk/reward ratio of roughly 0.2-to-1 against you, there is almost no room for the stock to appreciate before reaching resistance, while potential downside remains meaningfully larger.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- For the setup to become investable, the stock would need to pull back at least 10% to reopen meaningful upside to the analyst target and restore a risk/reward above 1.5-to-1.
CounterIf analysts revise their price targets materially upward following further quarters of large positive earnings surprises — the recent average is roughly 44% above consensus — the risk/reward geometry could improve without requiring any price decline.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Hilltop Holdings trades with roughly 0.8% headroom to its near-term price target, carries a Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 with no identifiable competitive moat, is experiencing revenue contraction of approximately 3%, and has 82% of its business concentrated in three states — the risk/reward of approximately 0.2-to-1 against you makes the setup difficult to justify even given a strong recent earnings surprise pattern.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.5 |
| ROA | 0.7 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 6.8 |
| Net margin | 6.4 |
| Moat | 3.6 |
| Piotroski F | 2.2 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Weak Piotroski F-Score: 2/9
Growth
1.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 1.7 |
| EPS growth | 1.7 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -3%
Momentum
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 6.8 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 1.9 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.4 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
3.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $1,586,000 (0.070% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
2.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.8 |
| quality rank | 2.5 |
| growth rank | 0.0 |
Technical
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.2 |
| support resistance | 4.3 |
| 52w position | 9.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.9 |
| days to cover | 2.6 |
| volatility | 5.8 |
| implied vol | 3.5 |
| beta | 7.8 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
- ▸Dividend: 196.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:4.8>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:18d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-2.4=NEGATIVE
- FINSVC_REGIONAL_CLIFF:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.8<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-2.38
Upside
-12.7%
Downside
5.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 51, MACD bullish
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 18d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $2.3B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Catalyst at 7.0 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: ASYMMETRY:-2.4=NEGATIVE.
The strongest dimensions are Catalyst at 7.0, Value at 6.6, and Technical at 5.9; the weakest are Growth at 1.7, Peer rank at 2.6, and Quality at 3.2. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -2.38 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Geographic Concentration Cliff Risk
Trip ifRevenue from markets outside the three concentrated states exceeds 25% of total quarterly revenue for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Weak Quality No Competitive Moat
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score improves above 5 in 2 consecutive annual reporting periods.
- P3Declining Revenue No Growth Case
Trip ifRevenue growth turns positive and exceeds 3% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Unfavorable Risk Reward Near Ceiling
Trip ifThe risk/reward ratio improves above 1.5-to-1, driven by a price pullback that opens at least 10% upside to the analyst target.