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HTHHilltop Holdings Inc.Sell3.9·$36.10

Hilltop Holdings (HTH) Q3 2026 earnings — TrendMatrix coverage

MISS-31.5% vs estimateEPS $0.44 vs $0.64 estCurrent verdict Sell 3.9/10

Reported

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Full disclosure · Editorial policy

Event detail · Q3 2026

Key numbers

Adjusted EPS
$0.44
Estimate
$0.64
Surprise
-31.5%
Revenue (period 2026-09-30)
$191.8M
Score today
3.9/10

Revenue source: xbrl.

Report record · Q3 2026

How the report landed

Hilltop Holdings (HTH) missed the $0.64 estimate with adjusted EPS of $0.44 — a large 31.5% shortfall.

Around the report

Coverage in the report window

  • Hilltop Holdings Projects 7% to 8% Full-Year Loan Growth for 2026 — fiscal.ai, 2026-10-23
  • Hilltop Hldgs Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript — benzinga, 2026-10-23
  • Hilltop Holdings Reports Q3 2026 Financial Results — fiscal.ai, 2026-10-22
Current read · as of 2026-11-13

Where TrendMatrix's rating stands now

TrendMatrix currently rates HTH Sell at 3.9/10; no pre/post engine snapshot brackets this report.

3 of the last 4 quarters beat the estimate; this quarter's -31.5% surprise compares with a +31.7% four-quarter average. Next scheduled report: 2027-01-28.

What argues against it

  • Single-region cliff: 82% exposure to Texas, New York and California (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.
  • Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas banking operations
  • Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas, New York and California (82.0%)

This section and the ones below it reflect TrendMatrix’s latest engine read — they update after the report date and are not frozen to it.

Current engine read

The levels TrendMatrix's engine tracks

Current price
$36.10
Stop
$34.36

At 15.2× trailing and 15.9× forward earnings, consensus estimates imply little change in earnings power.

Model outputs from TrendMatrix’s engine as of 2026-11-13 — shown for context, not personalized investment advice.

Financial Services context

HTH at TrendMatrix's latest read

For financials, the EPS print is only half the story: credit costs, reserve builds, and rate sensitivity decide how a quarter actually lands.

Industry
Financial Conglomerates
Market cap
$2.07B
P/E (fwd)
15.9
P/E (ttm)
15.2
52-week range
$32.17–$40.41
Off 52-week high
10.7%
RSI (14)
50
Volume vs avg
1.14×
Score today
3.9/10

EPS and the estimate come from Yahoo Finance’s earnings calendar, captured around the report date. That EPS is the adjusted figure analysts forecast, so it can differ from the GAAP diluted EPS in the company’s filing, and consensus estimates vary between data providers. Revenue comes from SEC XBRL company facts where available, yfinance-provisional otherwise. Not a buy/sell rating, a price target, or investment advice — see the current verdict on the stock’s main page for TrendMatrix’s live read.

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