Value
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.9 |
| P/S | 9.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.1 |
| PEG | 4.7 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 14.6x
- ▸PEG: 1.84
HSIC · Why this verdict
Why Henry Schein (HSIC) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Three of the last four quarters produced positive earnings surprises ranging from 3% to 8%, suggesting improving execution consistency following a miss in the oldest reported quarter. Earnings | Beat rate maintains 3 of 4 over the next four quarters, with average EPS surprise above 3%. | →Stable |
| CounterThe oldest quarter in the trailing record was a 7.6% miss, and revenue growth is weak; if pricing or volume trends in the distribution business deteriorate, the beat streak could reverse without a clearly defensible operational moat. | ||
The stock is trading above its near-term price target with negative upside and a deeply unfavorable risk/reward ratio — meaning even a moderate pullback would erode more value than the target offers in reward. Price targets | A better entry appears only if the stock corrects to create at least 10% headroom to the near-term target. | →Stable |
| CounterRising on-balance volume and a positive MACD suggest accumulation is continuing; if the next quarterly result surprises to the upside, the target could reset higher and re-open the economics for new capital. | ||
Free cash flow represents only 73% of reported net income, a conversion shortfall that deserves scrutiny for a medical distribution business where earnings should translate closely to cash. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow conversion rises above 90% of net income for 2 consecutive reported periods. | →Stable |
| CounterThe Piotroski F-Score is a strong 8 out of 9, indicating solid overall financial health; the below-par conversion may reflect working capital dynamics rather than a structural quality deficit. | ||
Weak growth is explicitly flagged as a concern, and the absence of an identifiable competitive moat makes it difficult to justify patience at a forward multiple of 13.7x without a clear acceleration catalyst. Bear case | Growth concerns ease if EPS actuals exceed $1.50 for 2 consecutive quarters, signaling a meaningful step-up from the current run rate. | →Stable |
| CounterA PEG of 1.78 is not extreme for a healthcare distribution franchise, and if the beat cadence continues at even modest magnitudes, the multiple could look inexpensive relative to a recovering growth trajectory. | ||
Three of the last four quarters produced positive earnings surprises ranging from 3% to 8%, suggesting improving execution consistency following a miss in the oldest reported quarter.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Beat rate maintains 3 of 4 over the next four quarters, with average EPS surprise above 3%.
CounterThe oldest quarter in the trailing record was a 7.6% miss, and revenue growth is weak; if pricing or volume trends in the distribution business deteriorate, the beat streak could reverse without a clearly defensible operational moat.
The stock is trading above its near-term price target with negative upside and a deeply unfavorable risk/reward ratio — meaning even a moderate pullback would erode more value than the target offers in reward.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- A better entry appears only if the stock corrects to create at least 10% headroom to the near-term target.
CounterRising on-balance volume and a positive MACD suggest accumulation is continuing; if the next quarterly result surprises to the upside, the target could reset higher and re-open the economics for new capital.
Free cash flow represents only 73% of reported net income, a conversion shortfall that deserves scrutiny for a medical distribution business where earnings should translate closely to cash.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow conversion rises above 90% of net income for 2 consecutive reported periods.
CounterThe Piotroski F-Score is a strong 8 out of 9, indicating solid overall financial health; the below-par conversion may reflect working capital dynamics rather than a structural quality deficit.
Weak growth is explicitly flagged as a concern, and the absence of an identifiable competitive moat makes it difficult to justify patience at a forward multiple of 13.7x without a clear acceleration catalyst.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Growth concerns ease if EPS actuals exceed $1.50 for 2 consecutive quarters, signaling a meaningful step-up from the current run rate.
CounterA PEG of 1.78 is not extreme for a healthcare distribution franchise, and if the beat cadence continues at even modest magnitudes, the multiple could look inexpensive relative to a recovering growth trajectory.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Three consecutive earnings beats suggest improving execution, but the stock is trading above its near-term price target with RSI at 81 and weak underlying growth — the current entry geometry favors waiting for a pullback before committing new capital.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.9 |
| ROA | 2.9 |
| Gross margin | 2.2 |
| Op margin | 2.3 |
| Net margin | 1.5 |
| Current ratio | 5.1 |
| FCF quality | 5.6 |
| Moat | 5.0 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 73% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
3.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.1 |
| EPS growth | 2.9 |
Momentum
8.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.4 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 6.9 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 71)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.3 |
| Price target | 5.3 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.3/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.5 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Insider buying (low materiality) — $691,900 (0.007% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.3 |
| quality rank | 5.4 |
| growth rank | 6.0 |
Technical
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.2 |
| support resistance | 0.1 |
| 52w position | 9.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.9 |
| days to cover | 5.4 |
| volatility | 7.1 |
| put call | 5.4 |
| implied vol | 4.6 |
| beta | 8.2 |
| debt equity | 6.3 |
Catalyst
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:8.1>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:32d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.7=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.70
Upside
-8.3%
Downside
11.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.1 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Momentum at 8.1) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.7=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.70 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 8.1, Risk (lower is worse) at 6.1, and Sentiment at 6.0; the weakest are Technical at 3.2, Growth at 3.5, and Quality at 4.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.70 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Beat Recovery
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Above Target No Upside
Trip ifUpside to the price target exceeds 10% from the prevailing market price.
- P3Fcf Quality Concern
Trip ifFree cash flow conversion rises above 90% of net income for 2 consecutive reported quarters.
- P4Soft Growth No Moat
Trip ifEPS actuals exceed $1.50 for 2 consecutive quarters.