Value
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.1 |
| P/S | 9.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.2 |
| PEG | 4.8 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 14.5x
- ▸PEG: 1.69
HSIC · Why this verdict
Why Henry Schein (HSIC) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Three consecutive earnings beats suggest improving execution, but the stock is trading above its near-term price target with RSI at 81 and weak underlying growth — the current entry geometry favors waiting for a pullback before committing new capital.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Three of the last four quarters produced positive earnings surprises ranging from 3% to 8%, suggesting improving execution consistency following a miss in the oldest reported quarter. Earnings | Beat rate maintains 3 of 4 over the next four quarters, with average EPS surprise above 3%. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe oldest quarter in the trailing record was a 7.6% miss, and revenue growth is weak; if pricing or volume trends in the distribution business deteriorate, the beat streak could reverse without a clearly defensible operational moat. | ||
The stock is trading above its near-term price target with negative upside and a deeply unfavorable risk/reward ratio — meaning even a moderate pullback would erode more value than the target offers in reward. Price targets | A better entry appears only if the stock corrects to create at least 10% headroom to the near-term target. | ↑Improving |
| CounterRising on-balance volume and a positive MACD suggest accumulation is continuing; if the next quarterly result surprises to the upside, the target could reset higher and re-open the economics for new capital. | ||
Free cash flow represents only 73% of reported net income, a conversion shortfall that deserves scrutiny for a medical distribution business where earnings should translate closely to cash. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow conversion rises above 90% of net income for 2 consecutive reported periods. | →Stable |
| CounterThe Piotroski F-Score is a strong 8 out of 9, indicating solid overall financial health; the below-par conversion may reflect working capital dynamics rather than a structural quality deficit. | ||
Weak growth is explicitly flagged as a concern, and the absence of an identifiable competitive moat makes it difficult to justify patience at a forward multiple of 13.7x without a clear acceleration catalyst. Bear case | Growth concerns ease if EPS actuals exceed $1.50 for 2 consecutive quarters, signaling a meaningful step-up from the current run rate. | →Stable |
| CounterA PEG of 1.78 is not extreme for a healthcare distribution franchise, and if the beat cadence continues at even modest magnitudes, the multiple could look inexpensive relative to a recovering growth trajectory. | ||
Three of the last four quarters produced positive earnings surprises ranging from 3% to 8%, suggesting improving execution consistency following a miss in the oldest reported quarter.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- Beat rate maintains 3 of 4 over the next four quarters, with average EPS surprise above 3%.
CounterThe oldest quarter in the trailing record was a 7.6% miss, and revenue growth is weak; if pricing or volume trends in the distribution business deteriorate, the beat streak could reverse without a clearly defensible operational moat.
The stock is trading above its near-term price target with negative upside and a deeply unfavorable risk/reward ratio — meaning even a moderate pullback would erode more value than the target offers in reward.
↑ImprovingPrice targets
- Expectation
- A better entry appears only if the stock corrects to create at least 10% headroom to the near-term target.
CounterRising on-balance volume and a positive MACD suggest accumulation is continuing; if the next quarterly result surprises to the upside, the target could reset higher and re-open the economics for new capital.
Free cash flow represents only 73% of reported net income, a conversion shortfall that deserves scrutiny for a medical distribution business where earnings should translate closely to cash.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow conversion rises above 90% of net income for 2 consecutive reported periods.
CounterThe Piotroski F-Score is a strong 8 out of 9, indicating solid overall financial health; the below-par conversion may reflect working capital dynamics rather than a structural quality deficit.
Weak growth is explicitly flagged as a concern, and the absence of an identifiable competitive moat makes it difficult to justify patience at a forward multiple of 13.7x without a clear acceleration catalyst.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Growth concerns ease if EPS actuals exceed $1.50 for 2 consecutive quarters, signaling a meaningful step-up from the current run rate.
CounterA PEG of 1.78 is not extreme for a healthcare distribution franchise, and if the beat cadence continues at even modest magnitudes, the multiple could look inexpensive relative to a recovering growth trajectory.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.0 |
| ROA | 2.9 |
| Gross margin | 2.3 |
| Op margin | 2.3 |
| Net margin | 1.5 |
| Current ratio | 5.0 |
| FCF quality | 7.5 |
| Moat | 4.2 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
4.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.2 |
| EPS growth | 5.4 |
Momentum
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 3.9 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 10.0 |
| vol acceleration | 1.9 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
- ▸Volume surge (3.1x avg) on selloff
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.1 |
| Analyst rating | 7.3 |
| Price target | 7.4 |
Insider
6.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 6.8 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.8 |
| quality rank | 3.8 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
Technical
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 10.0 |
| support resistance | 6.4 |
| 52w position | 7.9 |
| gap | 7.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.1 |
| days to cover | 3.4 |
| volatility | 5.9 |
| put call | 6.9 |
| implied vol | 5.9 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 7.9 |
| debt equity | 6.2 |
Catalyst
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.3 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings today
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULTPassed (4)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:4.4<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.1<1.5@spot
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
1.07
Upside
+5.7%
Downside
5.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Technical at 7.8; weakest: Quality at 4.1. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 7.8, Catalyst at 6.7, and Sentiment at 6.6; the weakest are Quality at 4.1, Peer rank at 4.4, and Momentum at 4.4. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.07 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Beat Recovery
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Above Target No Upside
Trip ifUpside to the price target exceeds 10% from the prevailing market price.
- P3Fcf Quality Concern
Trip ifFree cash flow conversion rises above 90% of net income for 2 consecutive reported quarters.
- P4Soft Growth No Moat
Trip ifEPS actuals exceed $1.50 for 2 consecutive quarters.